Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Don't know if this is the last update we'll get, but here's an update, again apples to apples.



 - Turnout has now exceeded 2018 for early voting in these counties. But not [yet] for Democrats.
 - Again, note the RGV counties, Cameron and Hidalgo. Likely a record high number of GOP primary voters there despite continued Dem dominance.
 - In the rest of the state, R primary is outvoting D, 489K(77%)-145K(23%)

Holy El Paso!

El Paso will definitely be one to watch, especially with that being Beto’s hometown.

In a way, nowadays he could be more of a hero to Austin than his own hometown.

[Real Texan Politics]

Well, today’s the day! Updates for the statewide races will be provided here (if not by me then by anyone else).

[Real Texan Politics]

Reminder that runoffs will be held on May 24. AG republican primary is almost certain to go to one.

Also some bold predictions, I expect Beto and Dan Patrick to be called the winners of their respective primaries immediately at poll closing, as neither of them really had any serious opposition. Though if not at the 7pm CST poll closings then they should be called at 8pm CST once the polls in El Paso close (since El Paso is in the Mountain Time Zone).

[Real Texan Politics]

At this point we can pretty much project, even before polls close in both time zones, that Beto O'Rourke will be the democratic nominee for governor of Texas.

[Real Texan Politics]

Proud to have supported Huffines, even with the tough (but expected) loss.

Anyways, this race is now Abbott vs Beto, as we all expected.

[Real Texan Politics]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

The Bush dynasty seems to still be popular in Texas.

[Real Texan Politics]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

The Bush dynasty seems to still be popular in Texas.

Who do you support in the runoff?

Undecided, but leading towards P. Bush.

[Real Texan Politics]

Oh so that's why it took forever to count the votes in my county. Absolutely disgraceful.
https://twitter.com/KennethRWebster/status/1502662360217133060?s=20&t=BCv0kW...

[Real Texan Politics]

Just an update, I'm expanding this thread to include other statewide/local races in Texas, not just the gubernatorial race.

This'll especially be useful for the AG runoff (and all the other runoffs) in May.

[Real Texan Politics]

Don't extrapolate too much from this. Abbott will not win Harris County.

Agreed, I’d expect it to be sorta like Cornyn 2020 but with better margins in south Texas and maybe a bit worse in some suburban counties like Collin.

[Real Texan Politics]

Don't extrapolate too much from this. Abbott will not win Harris County.

Agreed, I’d expect it to be sorta like Cornyn 2020 but with better margins in south Texas and maybe a bit worse in some suburban counties like Collin.

Do you think Dems have a shot at Williamson County in 2022? It voted for Cornyn by 3, but is getting better for Dems at light speed, and Biden was narrowly able to win it.

Ft. Bend will also be interesting to watch IMO because if Rs outright win it or at least keep it close it would likely mean an R improvement amongst suburban higher income/education minorities.

Certainly a shot dems win Williamson, especially as the Austin suburbs grow at a rapid rate. I'd put it as 50/50 now, but giving a slight edge to Abbott (would most likely be its last hoorah for republicans if he wins it).

Fort Bend only voted for Abbott by under 500 votes in 2018; it's almost guaranteed to flip in my opinion, red wave or not.

[Real Texan Politics]

The latest news in tweets:

Beto came out in support of ending Title 42, yet another nail in the coffin for his campaign.
https://twitter.com/AbbottCampaign/status/1512556412244742144?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp...
Do I have to explain this one?
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1509546497850945543?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2md...
George P. Bush getting pretty feisty in his attacks against Ken Paxton.
https://twitter.com/georgepbush/status/1511070300334612487?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2md...
Vidal Martinez launches an attack against the grandfather of his primary opponent for Harris County Judge (Alexandra del Moral Mealer).
https://twitter.com/CurrentRevolt/status/1512801296188788740?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2...
An elementary school in Austin ISD (wow what a shocker) held a pride parade.
https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1505974253023203328?s=20&t=siM1u986U...

[Real Texan Politics]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

[Real Texan Politics]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

I mean I was joking about him running again but I do agree with that argument. The question of course being is Beto succeeding at that?

[Real Texan Politics]

Massive news from Harris County!
https://twitter.com/AlexMealer4HCTX/status/1513580379504054272?s=20&t=IKar09...

[Real Texan Politics]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

[Real Texan Politics]

We can now project that Greg Abbott will win re-election as governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1515716494323339271?s=21

[Real Texan Politics]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto is pathetic.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1529522445174157312?s=20&t=eCgq3XytMun...
Also that's the Uvalde mayor calling Beto a "son of a b**ch"

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyways though, I think it's time we discuss last night's election results since we didn't get to do that last night on this thread.

First off, Ken Paxton absolutely trounced George P. Bush by 36%, 68-32, signaling the end of the Bush dynasty in Texas. Bush only carried 5 counties, of which all but 4 were rural counties (and the last being Travis, home of Austin).

For the Democratic runoff for AG, Rochelle Garza beat former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski 62.7-37.3. The only metro area Jaworski did well in was unsurprisingly Houston, as Galveston is part of the Houston metro. Unfortunately aside from Houston and many rural counties, Jaworski didn't do so hot.

For lieutenant governor, Mike Collier ran away with the nomination in a slightly more competitive race, only winning by 9%. Beckley's strength seemed to be in south Texas, including the San Antonio, El Paso, Laredo, and RGV metro areas, along with many deep red rural counties.

In the railroad commissioner runoff, incumbent Wayne Christian demolished Sarah Stogner by exactly 30%, carrying all but a few counties. Funny enough, Stogner's biggest prize seemed to be the Dallas exurban county of Navarro (home to Corsicana), where Stogner won despite it nearly being an exact tie.

Trump-endorsed candidate Dawn Buckingham trounced Tim Westley for the land commissioner runoff. Slightly disappointing since I voted for Westley (Buckingham barely even had an issues page), but Buckingham's victory is not surprising in the slightest.

What was surprising to me however was the TX HD-63 race, where Ben Bumgarner absolutely trounced Jeff Younger, the father of James Younger, the child whose mother fought for custody to transition him into a transgender girl named Luna.

Lastly, in a victory for me as a Harris County resident, Alexandra del Moral Mealer trounced Vidal Martinez and clinched the nomination for Harris County Judge. Considering the rapid rise in crime in Houston and Harris County, and Lina Hidalgo having scandals of her own, this could potentially be a GOP flip in a county that's surprisingly not as dem-leaning for its size.

Let me know your thoughts on these races!

[Real Texan Politics]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

The only people who cheered on this stunt are the people already supporting him and voting for him anyways.

[Real Texan Politics]

Seems like Beto is doubling down on "hell yes"

Is he trying to lose Harris County at this rate?
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1531721138790875146?s=20&t=acdvyPrmru4WgN...

[Real Texan Politics]

Speaking of Harris County, why in your view is Lina Hidalgo seen disfavorably. I’m obviously not in the Texas media market but a brief Google search yields press that converse that overall is decent if not favorable. Given the nature of the year and downballot lag she def seems vulnerable either way, but why is she particularly disliked?

Also in your view will Rs match (or exceed) Trumps performance in minority communities in Houston in 2022? % margin wise, it was stronger than even 2014 Gov or Sen in many areas, though some attribute the rightwards shift to more people showing up overall. Would be so cursed if Aboott wins Harris and Beto wins Fort Bend which actually seems possible

This may be a decent article on her controversy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/09/lina-hidalgo-texas-democrats-future-midterms-00031055

[Real Texan Politics]

While y'all are discussing counties, here is a county map I made a few days ago. Feel free to let me know your thoughts.
https://twitter.com/RealTXPolitics/status/1548185330590760960?s=20&t=rzUBOgp...