California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yeah as I much as I admire Barbara Lee, I don’t think her running for Senate at her age is s good idea.

Imagine thinking going to war with Al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors right after 9/11 was the wrong decision. 

Except that wasn’t her position. She objected to the incredibly broad and open-ended wording of the post-9/11 AUMF giving the President (who, I must point out, failed to keep the country safe—hence, 9/11) so much power and authority that could used to perpetuate war indefinitely. She was right.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Important to note that Schiff chaired the House Intelligence Committee. Presumably Pelos…excuse me, his plan is to one day chair its Senate counterpart—much like Feinstein had previously.

Gotta ensure that the MIC and NatSec ”community” continue to have powerful friends in the Democratic Party, after all.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Lee being only 3% off from being the fourth-placed Democrat must be incredibly embarrassing for her.

This is a poll a full year out from the election where the top-placed candidate is at 15%. You really don't need to try to wring meaning out of this. It's okay to just let it be.

Seriously. Does anyone on this forum actually believe that it’ll be a close Porter vs Schiff runoff? And a poll with 47% undecided isn’t exactly meaningful.

This is not like the next presidential election, which more people would be paying attention to or aware of because it’s the presidential election, and also because the likely major party nominees are the incumbent President and the previous President (read: name recognition). The vast majority of voters aren’t paying attention to other races this far out.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I disagree with you so strongly right now. It is exactly like New York. Real estate interests pick nominees and inundate their campaigns with money. Pelosi and Feinstein are literally married into the class that we are talking about. The moderates in California are economically right-wing and Gavin Newsom has backed them up in every decision that matters - offshore drilling, nuclear power, NIMBYism, you name it. Gavin Newsom is basically Andrew Cuomo minus the creepiness.

I love what you have to say normally but this is wrong. If establishment and progressive aren't antonyms then why did Hillary Clinton wade into an LA city council race?

I agree that Gavin Newsom is like Andrew Cuomo in many ways, but whereas Cuomo's instinct was try to destroy left-wing activists Newsom's instinct is to co-opt them. He's happy to pal around with Ro Khanna, for instance, because Khanna has been on his team ever since his first congressional campaign and because having him around gives Newsom credibility with Bernie Sanders people. As I've said, Newsom wants to be all things to all people. In this regard the contemporary politician I would compare him to is Justin Trudeau. I'm not really talking about Newsom's policy positions here: I'm talking about how he wants to be seen, and he definitely does not want to be seen as being in opposition to the left side of the party.

I've written before about the low level of ideological distinction between Democrats in partisan elections in California. There are plenty of elections between two Democrats, but how many elections are there between a left-wing Democrat and a right-wing Democrat where both candidates campaign on an ideological basis? Local elections obviously do have more ideological distinctions, but I don't recall seeing Gavin Newsom publicly involve himself in local elections since going to Sacramento. Hillary Clinton might have waded into a city council race in Los Angeles, but she's not the California Democratic Party. She is, quite literally, a New York politician.

I agree with Cody in being confused about the identification of Newsom with NIMBYs. On the issue of housing, the California government under Newsom has not gone as far as I would like, but it has gone a lot farther than I expected. I also recall that in the only recent election I can remember where there were two Democrats on the ballot and their differing positions on housing were the primary issue (the state senatorial election in San Francisco between Scott Wiener and Jackie Fielder in 2020), the candidate who used socialist iconography was not the YIMBY in the race.

Yes, you’d expect a lack of ideological distinction within a de facto one-party system (at least at the statewide level, which is the relevant level of politics here). In a situation like that personal ties to the party machine and, since this is the contemporary Democratic Party we’re talking about, demographic representation are far more important factors.

And yes, this isn’t New York. You won’t see a Republican nominee come within 7 points for Governor like Zeklin nor will you see a Democratic Governor do what Cuomo did re: the state legislature or the judiciary (the latter significantly contributing to Democratic losses for the House in New York last November).

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not sure why everyone is writing Lee off at this point. It’s still way too early to write anyone off.

I’m guessing it’ll be Schiff vs Lee but again, way too early to say.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not sure why everyone is writing Lee off at this point. It’s still way too early to write anyone off.

I’m guessing it’ll be Schiff vs Lee but again, way too early to say.

Because she’s clearly in a distant third, recently pissed off the CA Democratic establishment by acting like an entitled moron, is facing far stronger and more popular opponents, and there has been no evidence whatsoever yet that she’s anything more than a third wheel in this race.

Perhaps. Would be a damn shame if it is Porter vs. Schiff. Clearly the mega-rich San Francisco clique have been doing their best to anoint the latter even if it means enabling elder abuse.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Endorsement space:

[All Along The Watchtower]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

Irrelevant at this stage.

And what does a small city in Vermont have to do with the East Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, Alameda, Albany, Emeryville, and Piedmont?

[All Along The Watchtower]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

Irrelevant at this stage.

I think you’d still believe that even if Lee polls poorly in late February of 2024

Whatever you say.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Lot of garbage in this thread.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The biggest problem for Lee is her age. She is 77 and running for an open seat, and it does not help at all that Feinstein died in office a few months ago.

What evidence do you have that California Democrats care?

[All Along The Watchtower]

The state plays no role in which party will lead the Senate next year. And yet, some Democratic House campaigns in California have already seen the Senate race start to siphon money and attention away from swing-seats.

....

California alone has seven GOP House incumbents that Democrats have targeted. The campaign accounts of Schiff and his closest Democratic opponent, fellow Rep. Katie Porter, could transform those contests.

Instead, Schiff and Porter are engaged in an expensive, bruising primary. The tens of millions they’ve raised have largely been spent against each other, not Republicans.

One person working for a Democrat in a swing seat said multiple donors have declined to host fundraisers for that campaign because they had already recently held events for Schiff’s bid. Such fundraisers can bring in tens of thousands of dollars in one night.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/22/adam-schiff-katie-porter-campaign-funding-00136890

Just more of a reason to vote for Lee.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

"Normie progs" tend to have a hard time in large primaries, because they get boxed out by both the mainstream fave (Schiff, Biden) and the true believer of the left (Bernie, Lee).

Yes, Katie Porter has Elizabeth Warren vibes (and was a student of Warren’s at Harvard Law). That doesn’t bode well for her campaign, but we’ll see.