2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1303348150334300162?s=20

This seems... concerning.

Could just be weird reporting, if Craven and New Hanover Counties are miscoded, for example, or only reported the spoiled ballots.

Those aren't the counties where you'd want to suppress the vote if you were a Republican in North Carolina in any event. Absentee ballots in Craven County will probably break for Trump overall.

[Tintrlvr]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

[Tintrlvr]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Is it getting bigger on a percentage basis? It should be getting bigger with regard to absolute figures, of course.

Historically, absentee ballots in Florida leaned Republican, so I wouldn't be surprised by a tendency to move towards the Democrats over time as the always-absentee voters (Republican-leaning) mostly vote right away while the new-absentee voters (strongly Democratic) take a bit more time to turn in their ballots. Plus I think some urban counties have been slower to report (and Dade isn't reporting at all yet).

[Tintrlvr]

Has anyone calculated the margin biden must have (before election day) to win?

I think it's almost impossible to say what margin the Democrats need in early voting because this year is so different from previous years. We just don't know what the partisan breakdown will be on election day, how many voters will turn out then, etc. Any assumptions would be little more than guesswork and could result in wildly diverging standards.

[Tintrlvr]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

Yeah but at least you could say that's a battleground state and it's important to vote.  Nobody is actually fearful Trump will win Virginia, people are just turning out in outrageous numbers early to give Trump the middle finger.

Reminds me of having to wait over an hour in line in the rain to vote in my precinct in Brooklyn in 2018. Literally no competitive races at all, but people were fired up to turn out anyway.

Fortunately, we have early voting now and a lot more absentee voting, so I don't expect any lines when I go to vote (which will be early in person rather than on election day).

[Tintrlvr]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

[Tintrlvr]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

At this point I bet few new people are requesting ballots.  Anyone who wants to vote now is probably just waiting til early voting starts soon.

I feel like there are ordinarily lots of people requesting absentee ballots right up until the deadline. Not sure when that is in Florida, but here in New York the deadline to request an absentee ballot is not until late October (though at that point you're cutting it very fine on getting your ballot in on time).

Edit: The deadline to request an absentee ballot in Florida in October 24 (request has to be received by October 24). So there should definitely be more than zero new absentee requests showing up.

[Tintrlvr]

Pardon my ignorance but are election procedures at the discretion of states according to the constitution, or more specifically, what prevents Congress from enacting legislation to standardize federal election procedures across the US to avoid all these peculiarities?

Nothing legally prevents the federal government from doing so (the Constitution clearly gives Congress the ability to determine the manner of the federal elections). But Congress has historically not done so and has expressed no interest in doing so.

[Tintrlvr]

Pardon my ignorance but are election procedures at the discretion of states according to the constitution, or more specifically, what prevents Congress from enacting legislation to standardize federal election procedures across the US to avoid all these peculiarities?

Nothing legally prevents the federal government from doing so (the Constitution clearly gives Congress the ability to determine the manner of the federal elections). But Congress has historically not done so and has expressed no interest in doing so.

Any authority Congress would wield that massively could only apply to federal elections, not state, county, or municipality. It just wouldn't make sense to have parallel structures for different kinds of elections.

I agree, but if Congress did it for federal elections, the states would fall in line and just use the federal standards instead of operating their own separate systems, just like how they all hold state elections on the same date as federal elections even though nothing requires them to do so.

[Tintrlvr]

Pardon my ignorance but are election procedures at the discretion of states according to the constitution, or more specifically, what prevents Congress from enacting legislation to standardize federal election procedures across the US to avoid all these peculiarities?

Nothing legally prevents the federal government from doing so (the Constitution clearly gives Congress the ability to determine the manner of the federal elections). But Congress has historically not done so and has expressed no interest in doing so.

Seems like a no brainer for me and I can't see why Dem controlled congress in the past didn't do so considering they have more to gain from higher turnouts and accessibility to voting

It’s pretty recent that it has been the case that more accessibility clearly benefits the Democrats, and there’s the long weight of history of not doing it that would generate a lot of resistance, I think.

[Tintrlvr]

New update: >31M have voted already. New York still has no numbers. When does NY start reporting? We're looking to be well into the 40Ms or 50Ms next week at this rate.

I don’t think NY reports absentee voting figures in advance at all because the state is a mess and doesn’t know what to do with absentee voting yet. Early voting starts here on Saturday, and maybe they will report EV totals, but in the primaries (first time for EV ever), EV turnout was pitiful because nobody knew about it yet, and nobody is investing in voter education because no competitive races (at least in this part of the state). I wouldn’t expect much from NY.

[Tintrlvr]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

I know Texas has been changing, but damn that would be a huge swing.

Have these places really grown that much in just four years?
Or is it just suburbs turning sour on Trump?

Both. Collin County was only Cruz+6 in 2018 (and Denton only just behind at Cruz +8), so those swings seem realistic. If Biden wins Texas (and I think he will, although it will be very close), I would think he probably does win Collin County and may even win Denton County, even though those are more than a uniform swing from 2018, because of the lack of swing in rural areas.

The 2018 trend map is worth a look-see:

[Tintrlvr]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

It's up to 650k now?  

I've even seen someone say 800k. Honestly, who knows. Maybe Biden could win Florida with a 300k advance vote advantage. Maybe he needs 900k. It's too hard to predict with any certainty.

Historically, the Dems do better with weekend EV than weekday EV in Florida, which may or may not hold this year, FWIW.

[Tintrlvr]

MONTANA, as of 10/19:

County (2016 Presidential vote, 2016 Gubernatorial vote, 2018 Senate vote) - % of mail-in ballots returned

Cascade (Trump +22, Bullock +10, Tester +5) - 35.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (Trump +36, Gianforte +15, Rosendale +15) - 19.8% of mail-ins returned

Gallatin (Clinton +1, Bullock +15, Tester +21) - 24.5% of mail-ins returned

Lake (Trump +21, Bullock +2, Tester +3) - 37.0% of mail-ins returned

Lewis & Clark (Trump +7, Bullock +23, Tester +18) - 46.0% of mail-ins returned

Missoula (Clinton +16, Bullock +34, Tester +37) - 34.2% of mail-ins returned

Ravalli (Trump +38, Gianforte +14, Rosendale +19) - 37.0% of mail-ins returned

Silver Bow (Clinton +14, Bullock +44, Tester +45) - 39.9% of mail-ins returned

Yellowstone (Trump +27, Gianforte +1, Rosendale +3.5) - 36.6% of mail-ins returned

Statewide: 32.6% of mail-ins returned (207.593 / 635.764)

Doesn't seem like much of a partisan pattern, honestly. May reflect more when ballots where first mailed out or how quickly counties are updating their tallies.

I assume these counties are all all-mail? I know a handful of mostly small MT counties are still doing in-person voting but not sure which ones.

[Tintrlvr]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

It's almost as if Texas doesn't have a wide Absentee system where Democratic votes will go. It's almost that way, because it is that way.

Also, the Texas early vote numbers are in places that are either heavily Democratic, or trending Democratic, so that's where the optimism comes from.

To add to this, Texas has historically had among the lowest voter turnout rates in the country, and the potential voters who don't turn out have always been disproportionately Democrats. Demographically, Texas has been punching way below its weight for the Democrats for a long time as a result. It's therefore hard to imagine high turnout ever being a bad sign for Democrats in Texas, unlike many other states where turnout issues affect both parties in different and more subtle ways and a more nuanced understanding is appropriate.

[Tintrlvr]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1318935754232516608

It's great that black voters are doing well at turning in their absentee ballots, but these are pretty low numbers of votes compared to the total numbers of votes that will be cast in MS (for example, the Hinds figure is still only 8% of the 2016 vote total), so it's hard to take them to mean much (other than that Democrats are especially likelier to request and submit absentee ballots this year than in 2016, which isn't news).

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319436214039158786

I feel like it's not that bad.  GOP netted like 38k today?  And that doesn't include Miami Dade?  So lets say it's in the lower 30's.  At this rate they still need big turnout on Election Day. 

Plus souls to the polls Sunday could help Dems?

I agree weekends are generally better for the Dems in early voting, especially in the South. We'll see what happens this weekend. Historically Dems have tended to do better with later-received mail ballots as well, although with how upended things are, that may not be the case this time around.

[Tintrlvr]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

I may be misreading, but this seems like somewhat circular logic, as the estimates are based on a poll showing Biden +5 with registered voters. So, the Biden +5 result you get by doing the math is only really as strong as that poll, not so much the very concrete data we have on the early voting numbers from Florida.

It's not an estimate; these are actual voters who actually responded to NYT polls and have since actually voted (or not voted). The NYT knows who responded to their polls and knows who each of those people said they were voting for, and they can monitor whether those people have voted yet.

It's not perfect, but it assumes that the voters were all honest when they responded to the NYT's polls. Among likely voters who have responded to the NYT's polls of Florida, the remaining non-voters more or less break even. It's true that the polls might have some methodological error (for example, they might be including too many Black voters, or not enough North Florida Dixiecrats, or something), but it just means that there's nothing new to glean from the early voting figures. It's worth pointing out that the early voting figures, in terms of partisanship, line up well with what the NYT polling said they would be.