Election Night Timelines Project

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Good Evening and Welcome to NBC's coverage of the 1992 election where we will be finding out whether President Bush will get his party a 4th term in the White House or will Governor Cuomo bring his party out of the wilderness and take back the White House for the first time in 12 years. We have already been able to project that President Bush will carry Vice President Quayle's home state of Indiana and we can project he will carry the states of Florida, Virginia and South Carolina which all were states that were considered safe for the President while Governor Mario Cuomo will win the formerly strongly Republican New England state of Vermont which had voted Republican everytime in its history with the exception of 1964 and now 1992. We are unable at this point to make a project in Georgia, Kentucky and New Hampshire.




Bush 58
Cuomo 3


Chancellor: Yes and in the key senate races we can project that Republican Governor Judd Gregg will win the senate seat in New Hampshire and while thats no surprise it is still an important win for the Republicans who hope to reduce their overall defict in the senate.


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington


Brokaw: Now lets go to Tim Russet for our exit poll

Russert: Yes and the results indicate a very close race, so lets show you some of them and we will start with gender


Gender:

Male : 48% ; Bush 52% Cuomo 47%
Female: 52% ; Cuomo 52% Bush 47%

Race:

White: 84% ; Bush 55% Cuomo 44%
African American: 10% : Cuomo 89% Bush 10%
Hispanic: 4% : Cuomo: 63% Bush 36%
Asian: 1% : Bush 59% Cuomo 40%

Age:

18-29: 17% ; Cuomo 50% Bush 49%
30-44: 33% ; Bush 51% Cuomo 48%
45-59: 26% ; Bush 50% Cuomo 49%
60+: 24% ; Cuomo 52% Bush 47%


Income:

Under 15k: 13% ; Cuomo 57% Bush 42%
15k-50k: 53% ; Cuomo 51% Bush 48%
50k-75k: 19% ; Bush 52% Cuomo 47%
75k: 15% ; Bush 57% Cuomo 42%


Russert: So our exit polls is showing an extremely tight race and if it is true this will be the closest election since possibly 1960. As for the exit polls themselves, it doesnt seem much of a surprise. All I can say from these ones is we will be in for potentially a very long election night.


7:30:

Brokaw: The polls have closed in 3 states and we can project that Governor Cuomo will carry the state of West Virginia while President Bush will carry the states of North Carolina and Georgia which again all are no surprises. We are unable though to project Ohio at this moment which also should come as no surprise



Bush 85
Cuomo 8


Chancellor: So far no surprises on the map but a key state currently is basically a tie between President Bush and Governor Cuomo. This state could potentially decide the whole ball game so how the state votes is definetly important .


Brokaw: Alright we will be sending it back to your local stations now, and will be back at the top of the hour

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 2):

8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: It is 8 PM in the East and we have some breaking news to project

Breaking News: Democrats Retain Control of the House of Represenatives

Chancellor: That is that the Democrats will retain control of the house of representatives and while that is no surprise it will mean Democrats will extend their unprecedented streak of controlling the House of Representatives to 40 consecutive years. Some good news for House of Republicans is just like expected they will make some serious gains though as we project they will gain anywhere from 21 to 33 seats tonight. The reason for this is one there have been unusally a high amount of retirements this year, plus Democrats have less influence over redistricting than they normally do. Ok back to Tom for some Presidential Projections

Brokaw: Yes , polls have just closed in a slew of states big and small and NBC News can now project President Bush will carry the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma,Kansas and his home state of Texas which of course is a huge prize. We can also project that Governor Cuomo will carry the states of Massachusetts, Maryland, Deleware and a big midwestern prize in Illinois meaning the Governor so far has flipped 4 states the President won 4 years ago so far tonight. We are unable to make projections though in New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Pennsylvania,  Michigan , Missouri and the home state of Cuomo's running mate Al Gore which of course is Tenneessee.



Bush 147
Cuomo 55

Brokaw : So far in Kentucky with 75% in now , President Bush now leads by a narrow 2 points , in Ohio still very early but the President leads .

Russert: In the Senate races NBC News is also able to project that Senator John Glenn will be reelected in Ohio which of course is no surprise. One major race that has serious upset potential is South Carolina though where Democratic Senator Fritz Hollins currently is trailing his Republican opponent and even if he manages to win will be just barely.


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington


Brokaw : So John What do you think think of the results so far

Chancellor: Well they indicate exactly what our exit poll said which is this election is going to be very very close . As for the Presidents leads in Ohio and Kentucky, remember that both states were considered the most favorable out of the pure battlegrounds for the President and he still will need to sweep the tossups in order to win .

Russert: Not necessary John , remember that some of these lean states the President made a play being mostly being New Jersey and California were states have closely mirrored the national polls this year and if our exit poll is showing that the national vote is a basically a tossup at this point , I would say so are California and New Jersey . If  the President carries New Jersey that eliminates the need for him to win New Mexico and either Tennessee or Missouri , and if he carries California that eliminates the need for the president to win any of those 3 and he’d just need to hold on to either Kentucky or Ohio and he gets over the top . So I’d say the battleground map definitely includes those two states at the moment .

8:30

Brokaw : The polls have just closed in Arkansas and we are currently unable to make a projection there . We are however able to project the President will carry the state of [color=blue ]New Hampshire [/color] and the Governor will carry the President’s father’s home state of Connecticut and will win at least 3 electoral votes in Maine .




Bush 151
Cuomo 66


8:47

Brokaw: We have a major projection to make and that is that Governor Cuomo will carry the state of Pennslyvania and its 23 huge electoral votes. Pennsylvania is a state that has voted with the winner in 9 of the last 10 election so it is definetly a huge win even though many of the pollsters expected Pennsylvania to fall into Governor Cuomo column .



Bush 151
Cuomo 89

Brokaw: Alright we will send it back to your local stations for a quick update on your local races and we will be back at the top of the hour

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 3):

9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Its 9 PM In the East and NBC News can now project that President Bush will carry the states of Nebraska, both North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Arizona while Governor Cuomo unsurprisingly will carry his home state and a giant electoral vote prize in New York along with Rhode Island and Minnesota which of course was the only state to be one by the Democrats 8 years ago. We are unable to though make projections at this moment in Wisconsin, Lousiana, Colorado and New Mexico.



Bush 173
Cuomo 136

Brokaw: With that Governor Cuomo will have already won more electoral votes than any Democrat since 1976 and 4 of the past 5 democratic nominees as well. Now lets go over to Tim for the results of some key senate races

Russert: Yes and that is Senator Terry Sanford the long time political figure in the state of North Carolina has been defeated by Republican Lauch Faircloth who back in the 1960s was an ally of Mr. Sanford. So with that the Republicans have made their first gains so far in the senate

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Brokaw: So John any surprises so far

Chancellor: Not so far but I will say that this is showing once again the South's influence in the nation. The way things looks like the President is still in this race despite the fact he may only win 4 Electoral votes in the North East, which other than Barry Goldwater back in 1964 would be the worst showing for any Republican candidate in history. That shows that despite that result, the South has basically kept the President in the ball game now lets see if he can finish.

9:17

Brokaw: NBC News is now able to project that Governor Cuomo will win the state of Michigan and its 18 very important electoral votes while President Bush will carry Lousiana and its 9 votes




Bush 182
Cuomo 154


Chancellor: No surprise there, Michigan is a state that while it swings a lot is very dependent on the state of the economy. The one exception was 1976 and even then it was much closer than people thought due to the bad economy at the time. Now to be if you look at some of the other states we can see the President still holds narrow leads in Ohio and while more of Cleveland is still to come in, there is a lot of vote left in Cincinnati and Columbus so I definitely think the President is favored in Ohio, in New jersey it is basically the reverse but you can tell Governor Cuomo being from New York has helped him there, Tenneessee is basically a tie and Missouri its still way to early. So id say at this moment it looks like the Missouri or Tennessee will decide this race.


9:43

Brokaw: We have some major news to project and that is President Bush will carry the battleground state of Kentucky as well as Colorado though thats a state many thought he was almost certain to carry. On the other hand we can also project that Governor Cuomo will win the one outstanding electoral vote in Maine as well. 





Bush 198
Cuomo 155


Chancellor: While Governor Cuomo would have wanted Kentucky as a win in Kentucky probably would have meant he wins even without California given it was the most likely of all the pure tossups to go to Bush, Id say this isnt that bad news for him given things look good for him in New Jersey, Missouri now the numbers are in and he is slightly even ahead in Tenneessee so I would say at this point of the night the Governor is the slight favorite though its still anyone's ballgame.

Brokaw: Indeed it is, Tim how are some key senate races going

Russert's: Well in South Carolina Senator Hollins still trails with over 80% in and it seems like he very much could lose , in Georgia its very close but remember a candidate must also get 50% here or it goes to a runoff so this likely wont be decided till tommorow. Well we do though now can make another projection here and that is Senator Arlen Specter will indeed be reelected in Pennsylvania.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Russert: Some good news for the Democrats here though is in Wisconsin ,  Mr. Feingold seems to be doing well and you can say hes the favorite given the early numbers now though still much to go.

Brokaw: Alright we now will send it back to your local stations and we will be back at the top of the hour for more projections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Thank you OSR, President Johnson, S019, and Chips (apologies to anyone I missed, but I think it's you four) for this project. Very cool to read, getting through it now.

Do you guys take requests?

You can post requests here and one of us could decide to take it up when its our turn if we feel we could do a good job with this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Thank you OSR, President Johnson, S019, and Chips (apologies to anyone I missed, but I think it's you four) for this project. Very cool to read, getting through it now.

Do you guys take requests?

You can post requests here and one of us could decide to take it up when its our turn if we feel we could do a good job with this.

Cool. I was wondering about Cruz-Kasich (say their plan worked out) vs Sanders-Merkley (since he was Bernie's only Senate endorsement) in 2016. I wonder who would have won.

I could try taking a shot at it. I don't know when it's my turn but that's something I think I could do.

You are coming up next(Will try to finish my turn by this time next week)

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 4):

10:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Its 10 in the East and We can now project that President Bush will carry the states of Utah and Idaho while Governor Cuomo will carry Wisconsin. We are unable to make projections in Iowa, Montana or Nevada at this moment



Bush 207
Cuomo 166

Chancellor: We also have some breaking news to project at this moment

Breaking News: Democrats Retain Control of the Senate  

The reason we can project that is because NBC News can now project that the Democrat Russ Feingold will win in Wisconsin marking the first seat the Democrats have picked up tonight and also Senator Harry Reid will be elected in Nevada which means Democrats will have at least 52 seats when the night is all over which is more than enough to keep their majority.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Brokaw: So not really surprising they will hold the Senate but at this point them making gains looks unlikely given they are trailing in South Carolina, Georgia, and New York at this moment which means if that holds Republicans would pick up at least 1 seat when this night is over.


10:17:

Brokaw: We have two major battlegrounds to call in favor of the President and that is we can now project that Arkansas will be won by President Bush and also the critical state of Ohio which no Republican has ever won the White House without and only two Democrats have this century.



Bush 234
Cuomo 166

Chancellor: Now while that is indeed good for the President, the Cuomo camp must still be happy that they are up in Missouri and New Jersey cause if those two hold then if they can also win California like the polls indicated Governor Cuomo would still be the next president. Due to that I would say he is still the very narrow favorite at this moment though that can change


10:41:

Brokaw: NBC News can now make a major major projection and that is the Bellwether state of Missouri will be won by Governor Cuomo as well as the formerly Republican state of Iowa. We can also project that the two western states of Montana and Nevada unsurprisingly will go into the column of the President.




Bush 241
Cuomo 184

Chancellor: Well now we will see which midwestern bellweather state is correct, Missouri a state that has gone for the winner since 1956 or Ohio which has gone since 1960. Ironically the last time each were wrong was when Missouri when Democratic when a Republican won in 1956 and Ohio went Republican when a Democrat won in 1960 and one of those two will happen again.

Brokaw: We can see though the cheering at Mr.Cuomo's headquarters that they are very happy indeed about Missouri falling in their column

Chancellor: Hold on cause we have a senate call to make and that is that the Republican Thomas F. Hartnett will upset longtime Senator Fritz Hollings in South Carolina to be the next senator of that state.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Chancellor: This is a stunning upset nobody would have thought possible a year ago but it has happened

Brokaw: This year has been a very unpredictable cycle throughout as yes nobody would have predicted Senator Hollings would have lost a year ago but even in the Presidential nobody could have predicted a year ago that the President would face such a tough challange in his reelection bid, and 6 weeks ago nobody would have thought he would be this close to victory. So this year has been unpredictable and that result certainly is one

Chancellor: Thats why people maybe should stop making predictions so early in advance cause things can change fast

Brokaw: Hold on cause we have another projection to make and that is Governor Cuomo will win his neighboring state of New Jersey a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 but him being from New York certainly helped him there



Bush 241
Cuomo 199

Chancellor: With this one Governor Cuomo will just need to win those 3 West coast states and if he does he will win this election.

Brokaw: Yes but he also cant afford to lose California either which means at this point the election will be decided by the largest state in the Union and that is California and given its size it probably will be at least a couple hours before we can make any projection there. Ok we will be back after this short break

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 5):

11:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: The polls have closed in the West and we can project that Governor Cuomo will win the state of Hawaii . We though are unable to make a projection in the critical state of California as well as Oregon and Washington.



Bush 241
Cuomo 206

Chancellor: In the key senate race we can project former Democratic Mayor of San Francisco Dianne Feinstein will become the next Senator of California and in Georgia the Republican Paul Coverdell will indeed get over the 50% mark which means he will avoid a runoff and become the next senator from that state

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Brinkely: The irony of Mrs.Feinstein win here is she will occupy the senate of Governor Pete Wilson who beat her in her bid to become governor of that state two years ago, and now she will be the next Governor. One interesting to note though is Mrs.Feinstein according to exit polls there will way outperform both Mr.Cuomo and Mrs.Boxer which maybe is showing that many people who vote Republican are willing to vote for a democrat perceived as a moderate and tough on crime.

Chancellor: Keep in mind Feinstein came close two years ago too so she has been running in California for quite some time that has also helped here here. Now Tim for the Presidential Race what will be watching

Russert: Well as you can see on this whiteboard we have 3 categories, one being 1988 results the other being 1992 results and the last being overall change. As you can see we will be tracking obviously the whole state of California where Democrats need a swing of 3.6 percent in order to take the state and also some counties such as : Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, San Bernardino , Sacramento, Fresno, Santa Clara,  San Joaquin, Contra Costa and San Francisco as the night goes on as well.

Currently, though something interesting though is as you all know California had a three strikes and you are out of provision on the ballot and we are told according to exit polls on that, it will pass with 70% of the vote which the President hopes can help him here. On the other hand, Democrats are hoping Governor Pete Wilson's unpopularity will help sink the Republicans here. Which factor influences swing voters or increase turnout for one side or the other is unknown and we will have to see.


11:34

Brokaw: We can now project in the Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington that they indeed will be won by Governor Mario Cuomo. This is no surprise given both states voted Democratic 4 years ago but prior to that both were generally considered republican states albeit more moderate ones unlike the rest of the West.



Bush 241
Cuomo 224

Brokaw: So that means California will decide the election as if either candidate takes the state they will get over the 270 mark. So Tim its early but what did you find out in the key counties

Russert: Well it is indeed too early in LA and many of the others so we didnt mark them down yet as the numbers there would be misleading but so far the numbers we are getting indicate that this race will be very very close here. Reason is in Orange County which the President won by 36.7 points 4 years ago has been reduced to 34.2 points so far which is a 2.5 point swing in favor of the Democrats and many will say isnt that not enough. You would be right about that but remember they need a 3.6 swing state wide not in every county to take the state and as you can see in San Francisco county which many call the liberal version of Orange County, Governor Cuomo is winning it by 50.8 points which is 4.2 points better than Micheal Dukakis did there 4 years ago. So both sides are outperforming their benchmarks in their strongholds and we will see how it continues.

Brokaw: That is indeed interesting, and it does look like California will indeed be very very close as well. In the other two states outstanding, while they wont decide the election so far the Governor has just retaken the lead in Tennessee while its a virtual tie in New Mexico. Given the rest of the south, if the Governor manages to take Tennessee that likely will greatly increase the power of his running mate Al Gore if they win and even if they lose likely make him the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination 4 years from now. So for Al Gore, Tennessee is still very important to his prospects given those circumstances.

Chancellor: Yes indeed they are, and with that we also have another key senate race we can project and that is in Washington the Democrat Patty Murray will win that race and become the next Senator from that state.


Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Chancellor: In New York so far Senator D'Amato holds a very narrow 1 point lead but with over 90% in but so far it does looks like he will edge out his Democratic rival though we dont know that for sure yet which is why we haven't called that race. In California, it is very early but Congresswoman Barbara Boxer so far is underperforming Governor Cuomo in California which is certainly not good news for her given how close the presidential race is expected to be there.

Brokaw: Alright we will send it back to your local stations and will be back just before midnight for more election night coverage for this extremely close presidential race.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 6):

12:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: The polls have closed in Alaska and currently we are unable to make a projection there



Bush 241
Cuomo 224

Brokaw: Lets go over now to Tim Russert who we are told has gotten some more updates from the team at the decision desk

Russert: Yes as we can see currently in California President Bush leads but of course its too early to make any judgements there but from what we can see in Sacramento County a county the President won by 3.4 points , currently Governor Cuomo leads there by two tenths of a percentage point which would be exactly the type of swing he needs to win. An issue though for the Governor is while he is overpeforming the baseline swing he needs in places like San Francisco, San Joquin , Santa Clara the flip side is true for places like Orange County, San Diego County, San Bernardino county so really we will have to wait probably till all the votes are counted to see who will have won the state and at this point, it looks like it will be decided by a third of a percentage point either way.


Chancellor: I think the real key will be Los Angeles County but given its size and how different areas of it can either be very democratic or republican it will be hard to use its data to judge who will win the state. I do think though at this point Congresswomen Boxer is in real trouble though and it looks more likely than not the Republicans have the edge in that senate race

12:32

Brokaw: We can now project Alaska will be won by President Bush which should come as no surprise.



Bush 244
Cuomo 224

Brokaw: Now with us is Former President Ronald Reagan, so thank you Mr.President for coming on

Reagan: Its my pleasure

Brokaw: President Reagan what are your thoughts so far on the results in California and how do you think that state will go

Reagan: Well the state certainly will be very close but I think President Bush will have the edge here. While Governor Cuomo is doing better than he needs in the Northern Part of the state, remember more people live in the Southern half and the fact the President is doing better there than he needs is good news for Los Angeles County which I think will be the deciding factor. I think in order for Governor Cuomo to win the state given the results in counties like Orange, San Diego , Santa Barbara all of which have lots of voters he will actually have to have a larger swing in LA than he does state wide in order to win the state.

Brokaw: Why do you think the polls were so off in this state

Reagan: Keep in mind polls always underestimate the Republican candidate in competitive major elections in the state. The reason for that is Democrats always have had a large lead in terms of voter registration as many of those Democrats are moderate to conservatives which makes it harder to get an accurate sample for polling. So despite polling, I always thought we had a chance here which is why I campaigned here as hard as I did for the President

Brokaw: If Governor Cuomo wins will you be willing to give him advice as well if he asks for it

Reagan: I dont know if he would ask for my advice but if he wants it of course I would be willing to help. At the end of the day we arent Republicans or Democrats first or even Conservatives or Liberals first but Americans first and if Governor Cuomo if he wins asks for my advice it would be my duty to give it.

Brokaw: Thanks for coming on Mr.President

Reagan: No problem

12:53:

Brokaw: We can now project that Governor Cuomo will carry the home state of his running mate Al Gore, Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes.



Bush 244
Cuomo 235

Brokaw: Currently the President still holds a very narrow lead in both New Mexico and California so Tim how are some of these key counties looking like

Russert: Well a good deal of Los Angeles County is in and someone from our decision desk team told us that the numbers now are starting to get representative so currently Governor Cuomo leads here by 8.3 points compared to the 5 point win Governor Dukakis had here 5 years ago which is a swing of 3.3 points which is less than the required number to take the state. For some interesting facts in the two senate races Congresswomen Boxer is only up 6 points which is of course terrible news for her there while Mayor Feinstein is up by a stunning 19 points here which is why she is winning by such a large margin.

Brokaw: Mrs.Feinstein is almost a perfect fit for this state as she is a Democrat from the Bay Area which gives her the support any dem needs there, but also has the ability to able to appeal to voters in the southern half of the state that Democrats usually are unable too thanks to her tough on crime stance along with being a moderate on fiscal issues. Due to this, its very likely if Senator Al Gore was the nominee instead of the Vice Presidential one hed have definitely won the state.

Chancellor: Yes I agree and probably by 6 to 8 points too. We do have a projection to make and that is in New York Senator Al D'Amato will be reelected which is disappointing news for Democrats who hoped they could pull of an upset here thanks to Governor Cuomo coattails which he definitely had but looks like the Democrats will fall short by around a point.

Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 NBC Election Night Coverage(Part 7):

1:25:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brokaw: Around 2/3 of the votes are in California and the President lead has dropped to less than half a percentage point here so now lets go to Tim Russert to see some more updates from California

Russert: Los Angeles County by far the largest county in the state so far Governor Cuomo is up by around 8.5 points which is a 3.5 point swing from 4 years ago. In San Joaquin a place the President won by 9.8 points 4 years ago he is currently winning by 6.1 points a 3.7 point swing from 4 years ago. As you can see from this whiteboard, both candidates are pretty much similarly hitting or missing their targets so I believe this will go down to the last vote.

Chancellor: The way it looks like is we likely will be having some recounts here as well.


3:35:

Brokaw: 98% of the vote is in California now and the presidents lead here has dropped to a few thousand votes

Russert: Yup and again the reason is both candidates are hitting or missing their targets similiarly so it looks like we will be going to recount here.

Brokaw: Ok with us now is the Secretary of State of California March Eu to tell us more about what will happen now in this state that seems almost certainly will end up going to a statewide recount

Eu: First to keep in mind is there is no automatic recounts here in the state of California so it will have to be requested by whichever candidate is trailing after the initial count. Now if the margin is within 1000 votes or .015% of the total vote then the Governor can order a recount here so we will have to see how close it is before we figure out what will happen here given we have to count some of the absentee ballots that came from overseas as well

Brokaw: So Assuming this holds up and Governor Cuomo requests a recount, how long will it be before you will be able to certify the results

Eu: Well once the absentee ballots are counted we will begin the recount process and probably 2-3 weeks from now we will be able to certify the results.

Brokaw: Ok thanks from coming on

Eu: No problem

Chancellor: While we wont know the outcome of the Presidential election it seems like for at least two-three weeks we do know that in the California senate race, the Republican Bruce Herschensohn    will be the next senator of that state . With that the senate composition for the next two years will be 55 Democrats to 45 Republican, which means the Republicans will pick up two seats tonight.


Vulnrable Republican Seats:

New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
California(Special)

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
California
Washington

Chancellor: We can also project in the House of Representatives Republicans will make a total of 27 gains tonight meaning the new balance in the House will be 240 Democrats to 194 Republicans to 1 Independent. It will be the most seats the Republicans will have had in the chamber since 1956 and many attribute this too the much more favorable district boundaries drawn after the census compared to previous decades and a lot of retirements. Despite those gains, the Democrats will still have a pretty clear majority in the house and their hold on that chamber looks pretty safe. Now over to Tom Brokaw for one last project

Brokaw: We are also able to project at this moment that Governor Cuomo will very narrowly win the state of New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes



Bush 244
Cuomo 240

Brokaw: Given we will not be able to project California for two more weeks and every senate race has been called, we will be signing of for this election night and it looks like we will have to wait quite some time to find out whether President Bush will be living in Washington DC or Texas over the next 4 years. I want to thank all of our viewers for watching us tonight and our staff here who made this night possible.



President Bush gives Statement About Too Close to Call Result in California:


Bush: I want to start of by thanking the over 104 million Americans who voted in yesterday's election and no matter which candidate you voted for I want to let you know our democracy is strong because of the civic duty you all partook in yesterday. Last night election also showed that the cynics who for many years have said voting is not important were proven wrong given how close the results are in a state as large as California and I hope it encourages Americans who may not partake in the process to do so in the future.

Last night when it became clear that how close the state of California would be I called Governor Mario Cuomo on the phone and we both agreed that the most important thing is one to let the process continue unimpeded from any political pressure. That begins with letting the overseas absentee ballots being counted and then we both agreed that it would be the best interest for the people of California and our nation for whoever is trailing after that to request a full statewide recount and whoever is leading to let a full statewide recount to be conducted as well. While it may take 2-3 weeks for this process to be completed, both Governor Cuomo and I agree it is much better to be patient and wait for the process to complete rather than have a result that questions the legitimacy of whoever is President for the next 4 years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

California Secretary of State announces results of California recount:


Brokaw: We are getting word that California has completed its recount, so in a few minutes we will go to Sacramento where California Secretary of State March Fong Eu will announce its results. The President is waiting anxiously at the White House while Governor Cuomo is waiting anxiously at the New York Gubernatorial Mansion and we are told the President will give his speech at RNC Headquarters in DC while Governor Cuomo will give one at the New York State Democratic Party office in Albany. We are told that neither side will take further legal action so the results of this recount will decide the presidency, so now lets head over to Sacramento.

Eu: The total votes cast in California for President and Vice President was 12,861,353 which the ticket of George Bush and Dan Quayle received 6,372,800 votes, the ticket of Mario Cuomo and Al Gore received 6,370,228 votes


Brokaw: With that the President will win the crucial state of California by a super tiny 2,572 votes or in percntage terms, .02% in the largest state of the union and with that NBC News can now project that President Bush will be reelected President of the United States

Breaking News: George Bush Re-Elected President




Bush 298
Cuomo 240


Brokaw: Alright now lets go back to Sacramento

Eu: Due to these results, I can now certify that the 54 electors representing George Bush will be the ones casting the votes in the electoral college for President and the 54 electors representing Dan Quayle will be the ones casting the votes in the electoral college for Vice President.


Excerpts from Mario Cuomo's Concession Speech:

Cuomo: A few moments ago I called President Bush to congratulate him on a tightly contested reelection victory and wished him well for the next 4 years as these next 4 years will be crucial for our nation and it is in the best interests for everyone in our country that the President succeeds. I want to use this moment to thank Senator Al Gore for his hard work on this campaign and wish him well for whatever his future is and let him know he has become a great friend as well. I also want to thank the people who worked and volunteered on this campaign as well as all the people who supported me cause we couldn't have made it this far without you. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts from George Bush's Victory Speech:

Bush: A short while ago I spoke with Governor Mario Cuomo and congratulated him on a well-fought campaign and wished him well over the next two years as Governor of New York as it is one of the largest executive jobs in America and its important for everyone in this nation that a Governor of a state like New York is successful regardless of party. I also want to thank Vice President Dan Quayle for being an excellent vice president and being a great running mate for this campaign and look forward to working with him over the next 4 years in the White House. The next 4 years will be a very important time period in our nation which is why I ask members of both parties to put partisanship aside after a very closely fought election so we can address the issues facing our nation such as our economy, and how our world will look like entering the next century.

Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America

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To explain why I think California would be won by George Bush in 1992 vs Cuomo in a two way race:

- I think if Perot wasnt in the race , Bush loses California by around 8 points instead of 13.5 in OTL against Clinton

- Keep in Mind Clinton ran arguably the best general campaign in modern history , and pretty much threw the old playbook Republicans used to run on the previous two decades out the window.

- One major part of the playbook was to cast the Democrats as weak on crime, which helped Republicans in hardline tough on crime states like California greatly and given New York's reputation at the time and Mario Cuomo's opposition to the death penalty, I think the crime issue could hurt Cuomo even more than it did to Dukakis.

Due to this I think California in 1992 would be as much of a pure tossup state as it possibly gets in a Bush vs Cuomo race , but keep in mind if this ticket was reversed I believe Gore would win California by around 5-6 points .

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Ugh. I keep forgetting to update this.

It’s alright

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I'm sorry to announce this. But I have decided to put my timeline on hold for a while until I have just a tad more free time on my hands. If someone else wants to work on a timeline here, go ahead.

That's alright Chips and hope everything is going fine

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If anyone is interested in joining this project please DM me on atlas or discord so you can be added to it. The first one to do so will get to work on the next TL here

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I am excited to announce that PragProp will be joining this project and be writing the next TL on here

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I will be reviving this soon but with a midterm . A few midterms I am considering doing are:

1974 With No Wategate
1994 if Bush won Re-Election
2002 without 9/11
2018 if Hillary won 2016
2022 if Trump just retired after losing

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Ok I have decided to do 1994 if Bush won. So I will be going of the 1992 scenario I did here and these were the down ballot changes in that scenario vs OTL

Senate: SC and CA(Regular) will be won by the GOP so the Senate balance is 55-45. Also since Bentsen never joins the cabinet, Dems never lose TX so we go into 1994 with the Senate balance being 55-45.

House: The House is 240-194-1 in favor of the Dems rather than 258-176-1

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1994 Election Preview:

Jennings: As you all may know , tommorow is the midterm elections where the entire house, a third of the senate and most governorships will be up and we will be covering them here on ABC. Now what will be watching for , well with us is Jeff Greenfield who will be telling us.

Greenfield: Well first is the House and as you can see the Democrats are expected to make gains and could make enough gains to wipe out their losses from 1992, which many attribute to redistricting. So them getting back to their numbers from 1990 would actually be more impressive then it was then given the map is not as favorable to them as it was then.

House of Representatives:

Democrats: 244-266(+4-+26)
Republicans: 168-190(-4- -26)
Independent: 1
Tossup: 22

Jennings: What about the Senate

Greenfield: This is where things get interesting as usually in a 6th year itch let alone a 14th year itch, the party in the white house loses big in senate races. The Republicans lost 15 senate seats in 1958 and 9 in 1986 for example but this time its very possible they may make gains due to the fact that the map that is up is again favorable to them. Now lets look at the 10 races we consider to be potentially at risk of flipping

Senate:


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Delaware: Senator William Roth(R) vs State Attorney General(D)- Lean Republican Hold

Minnesota : Representative Rod Grams(D) vs  State House Representative Ann Wynia(D) - Tossup

Vermont: Senator Jim Jeffords(R) vs State Senator Jan Backus(D) vs Mr. Gavin Millis- Tossup

Washington : Senator Slade Gorton(R) vs King County Councilmember Ron Sims(R) - Lean Republican Hold

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Arizona- Senator Dennis DeConcini(D) vs Represenative Jon Kyl(R)- Lean Republican Gain

Michigan - Representative Milton Carr(D) vs State GOP Chair Spencer Abraham(R)- Tossup

Ohio- Businessman Joel Hyatt(D) vs Representative Mike DeWine(R)- Lean Republican gain

Oklahoma- Representative Dave McMurdy(D) vs Representative Jim Inhofe(R)- Lean Republican Gain

Pennsylvania: Senator Harris Wofford(D) vs Representative Rick Santorum(D) - Lean Democratic Hold

Tennessee: Senator Jim Sasser(D) vs Physician Bill Frist(R) - Tossup

Jennings: Looking at this list it is possible that Repulicans even outright take the senate

Greenfield: It 100% is a possibility as if you assume Republicans hold their seats and then win 5 of the 6 Democratic battleground seats on the board but doing so will be pretty unlikely since they almost have to run the board and given the house numbers that will be difficult. I will say this though and that is that Senate Democrats are probably happy Cuomo ended up losing because if he won, I would say it would be almost certain that the Republicans would have taken the senate tonight.

Jennings: Ok now what about the governor's races

Battleground Gubernatorial Races:

Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Alaska: Mr Jim Campbell(R) vs Former Anchorage Mayor Tony Knowles(D) vs Lieutenant Governor Jack Coghill(I) - Lean Democratic Gain

Arizona: Governor Fife Symington(R) vs Businessman Eddie Basha(D) - Tossup

California: Governor Pete Wilson(R) vs State Treasurer Kathleen Brown(D)- Lean Republican Hold

South Carolina: Former State Representative David Beasley(R) vs Lieutenant Governor Nick Theodore(D)- Tossup

South Dakota: Former South Dakota Governor Bill Janklow(R) vs Mr. Jim Beddow(D) vs Mr. Nathan Barton(L)- Lean Republican Hold

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Alabama: Governor Jim Folsom Jr(D) vs Former Governor Fob James(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

Maryland: Prince County Executive Parris Glendening(D) vs State Delegate Ellen Sauerbrey(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

New Mexico: Governor Bruce King(D) vs Businessman Gary Johnson(R) vs Former Lieutenant Governor Roberto Mondragón(G)- Tossup

New York - Governor Mario Cuomo(D) vs State Senator George Pataki(R) vs Businessman Tom Golisano(I) - Lean Democratic Hold

Oklahoma: Lieutenant Governor Jack Mildren(D) vs Former Deputy HUD Secretary Frank Keating- Likely Republican Gain

Pennsylvania: Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel(D) vs Representative Tom Ride(R) vs Mr. Peg Luksik(C) - Tossup

Rhode Island- State Senator Myrth York(D) vs Attorney Lincoln Almond(R) vs Businessman Robert Healey(I) - Tossup

Tennessee- Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen(D) vs Representative Don Sundquist(R) - Tossup

Wyoming- Wyoming Secretary of State Kathy Karpan(D) vs State Senator Jim Geringer(R) - Lean Republican Gain


Vulnerable Independent Seats:

Connecticut: Former Representative John Rowland(R) vs State Comptroller Bill Curry(D) vs Lieutenant Governor Eunice Groark(I) vs Former State Senator Tom Scott(I) - Tossup


Greenfield: As you can tell there are a lot of battleground gubernatorial races and these races are important as keep in mind much of the policy changes parties want to do are done by Governors and not Presidents or either house of congress so these races will be interesting to watch. Second they provide parties with benches for future Presidential races as well as help build up the state party infrastructure thats critical in tight races too. So we will be watching these with great interest as well

Jennings: Thanks Jeff and we hope all of you join us here at ABC to get up to date news about the 1994 midterm elections.

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1992 ABC Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

7:00

https://youtu.be/SsVFZ0F8Gmc?si=kQLOIsx7jVCgjP95

Good Evening and Welcome to ABC's Coverage of the 1994 Midterm Elections where we will be finding out what the composition of Congress will look like for the next two years, as well as see who will be controlling gubernatorial mansions in 36 states as well. The first polls have closed and in the senate we can project that Senator Richard Lugar will be easily reelected in Indiana, Senator Connie Mack will be easily reelected in Florida, and we can also project that Senator Chuck Robb will be reelected in Virginia. We are unable to make a projection in Vermont at the moment

Democrats 34
Republicans 35

Jennings: In the Gubernatorial Races we can project that Governor Lawton Chiles will be easily reelected in Florida, Governor Zell Miller will be easily reelected in Georgia, Governor Howard Dean will be easily reelected in Vermont and Governor Steve Merrill will be easily reelected in New Hampshire.  Currently we are unable to make a projection in South Carolina though.

Jennings: So no surprises so far but it is very early

Brinkley: It is indeed but I will point out that in all my years of covering politics, I will say it is remarkable to me how the Republicans despite being in control of the White House for the past 14 years, have not seen a wave go against them in that period. The Democrats had it go against them in 1946 and 1966 while the Republicans had it go against them in 1958 and 1974 but never since which is interesting.

I think that does give credence to the fact that politics have changed and that Republicans are fundamentally a stronger party then they used to be and a lot of that is that Democrats dont have the monopoly they used to on the south.


7:30:

Jennings:The polls have closed in a couple more states and ABC can project that Senator Robert Byrd will be easily reelected in West Virginia. We are unable to make a projection in Ohio though

Democrats 35
Republicans 35

Jennings: On the other hand we can make a projection in the Ohio Governor's race and ABC can project that Governor George Voinovich will be easily reelected.

Jennings: So far everything is holding to form

Roberts: Yes they are but what I do find interesting are these early returns in these house races is if they continue like this then it does suggest Democrats should be favored to take back more than the Dozen seats the need to give them ideological control of the house. For people wondering if it makes a different, I will tell you that it does because just look at the type of legislation that this congress has passed vs the prior congress. On taxes this congress passed a capital gains tax cut while the prior congress famously raised taxes, it passed NAFTA into law which again was facing difficulties in the old congress and passed one of the most stringent tough on crime bill in modern history so ideological control does matter just as much as party control does .

Jennings: It also probably would mean the death of Welfare Reform

Roberts: Yes as keep in mind Welfare Reform did pass the house by an extremely slim margin in the prior congress, it’s just that it failed to get through the senate. President Bush is hoping if you could keep losses in the house to the less than 12 range, and make some gains in the Senate thanks to a favorable Senate Map then that bill could pass in the next congress.

Jennings : Alright we now will be sending it back to your local news stations so you can get an update on your local races but we will be back at the top of the hour .

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1992 ABC Election Night Coverage(Part 2):

8:00

https://youtu.be/SsVFZ0F8Gmc?si=kQLOIsx7jVCgjP95

Jennings: It is 8 PM In the East and we are now able to project that Democrats will retain the House of Representatives with a larger majority. Here is what ABC is projecting at the moment

Democrats: 250-262(+10-+22)
Republicans: 172-184(-10-22)
Independents: 1(-)

So David how are the senate races going

Brinkley : ABC can now project Connecticut- Senator Joe Lieberman will be easily reelected, in Maine- Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell will win another term, in Maryland- Senator Paul Sabanes will win by a comfortable margin, in Massachusetts - Senator Ted Kennedy will easily win , in New Jersey- Senator Frank Lautenberg will be reelected, and in Texas- Senator Lloyd Bentsen will be reelected a comfortable margin.

We can also project in Mississippi- Senator Trent Lott will easily be reelected, and in Missouri- Senator John Danforth will easily be reelected.

We are unable to at this moment make projections in Deleware, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and in Tennessee.

Democrats 40
Republicans 37

Brinkley: In the Gubernatorial Races, ABC can now project in Illinois - Governor Jim Edgar will be reelected by a comfortable margin, in Massachusetts- Governor Bill Weld will be easily reelected, in Michigan- Governor Jim Engler will be reelected by a comfortable margin, and in Oklahoma- Secretary Frank Keating will win. We can also project in Kansas- Governor Joan Finney will be easily reelected, and in Texas- Governor Ann Richards will be reelected by a comfortable margin.

We are unable to make a projection in Alabama, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Tennessee

Brinkley: No surprises here but I will point out that if our house projection is accurate and if we go with the middle number in that range it would put the GOP at 178 house seats which would still result in them having more total house seats than they have had after any midterm since 1970 and the most in a 6th year itch since 1926.

Greenfield: I would want to point out though that a large reason for this is the 1990s redistricting cycle went more favorably for the Republicans than any cycle since the 1950s if not earlier which makes it harder for Democrats to run up the numbers in the House like they used too. I will also that the Republicans will need at least 181 or 182 house seats to prevent the house from falling into control of liberals and they will have to almost run the table to do that.

Will: I will agree with Jeff that Republicans did have a more favorable redistricting cycle after 1990 than in prior decades but a lot of the reason is thanks to the work they have done throughout the 1980s where they gains many state legislative seats throughout the south which in turn gives you more influence over the redistricting process.



8:30:


Jennings: The polls have closed in Arkansas and ABC can project that  Lieutenant Governor Jim Tucker will be elected as the next governor of that state succeeding long time governor and 1992 and likely 1996 Democratic presidential primary candidate Bill Clinton.

Jennings: In the Senate we can also project that in Vermont- Senator Jim Jeffords will be reelected and in Oklahoma - Representative Jim Inhofe will win.

Democrats 40(-1)
Republicans 39(+1)

Jennings: So far none of the tossup races have been called so no surprises so far

Greenfield : What I would say interesting so far is the fact that the democrats have a real chance at sweeping the south as they currently lead in Alabama and South Carolina and our exit polls do give them the slight edge in both races and TN is expected to be very close too . If that is the case then it will be the first midterm since 1962 in which democrats won every gubernatorial race in the former confederacy.  Of course too early to say at the moment but it is a real possibility tonight .

Donaldson : It is interesting but at the same I would point out republicans are doing well in the south in the senate races and in the gubernatorial races , even if they get swept it would mean a loss of one which isn’t really much .

Brinkley : I would agree but in my opinion what this shows is all the talk about trends from the experts , keeps getting proven wrong over and over . I think we are truly in an era where we have two party politics in nearly every part of the  country now and it will remain that way for the foreseeable future .

Jennings :  Alright we will be sending it back to your local stations for news about your local results . We will be back at the top of the hour

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1992 ABC Election Night Coverage(Part 3):

9:00

https://youtu.be/SsVFZ0F8Gmc?si=kQLOIsx7jVCgjP95

Jennings: Welcome back, it is 9 PM in the east and a whole bunch of states have just closed their polls and ABC can now project that in Nebraska- Senator Bob Kerrey will be reelected by a comfortable margin , in New Mexico- Senator Jeff Bingaman will be reelected by a comfortable margin, in New York- Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan will be reelected by a comfortable margin, in North Dakota- Senator Kent Conrad will be easily reelected, in Wisconsin -Senator Herb Kohl will be easily reelected. We can also project that in Rhode Island- Senator John Chafee will be easily reelected and in Wyoming- Representative Craig Thomas will be the next senator of that state.

We are currently unable to make a projection in Arizona, Minnesota

Democrats 45(-1)
Republicans 41(+1)

Jennings: So David how are the gubernatorial races going

Brinkley: Similarly we are able to make some projection in the gubernatorial races too. ABC Can now project that in Colorado- Governor Roy Romer will easily be reelected, in Nebraska- Governor Ben Nelson will be easily reelected. We are also able to project in Minnesota- Governor Anne Carlson will easily be reelected, and in Wisconsin- Governor Tommy Thompson will be easily reelected

We are unable to make a projection in Arizona, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and in Wyoming

Brinkley: The big news so far is that the long time New York and former Democratic Nominee Mario Cuomo seems to be in a competitive race for governor since we are unable to call it. Tom What are your thoughts on the race

Wicker: Well I will say it is not surprising given the fact is after 12 years of Cuomo as governor that does cause fatigue with the incumbent which reduces that advantage and add into the fact that The Republican George Pataki was able to run an effective camapign on issues such as law and order and that is why he was able to reduce Governor Cuomo lead to single digits. Now will he win, I don't think so but if he can indeed hold Governor Cuomo to a single digit win, then it does set him well to run again 4 years from now.

Jennings: Do you think Governor Cuomo's Presidential campaign hurt him here

Wicker: It is very possible as the fact is his negatives especially on the law and order issue were increased due to that campaign but I don't think that played as big of a part as people may think given he did easily win the state two years ago.


9:33:

Jennings : ABC News is now able to make projections in two more races, first in the Ohio Senate Race where we can now project that Representative Mike DeWine will be the next senator of that state

Democrats 45(-2)
Republicans 42(+2)

Jennings: We can also project that in South Carolina- Lieutenant Governor Nick Theodore will defeat the Republican David Beasley to be the next governor of that state

Jennings : Some more good news for the Democrats here is the fact that Democratic candidates currently are in the lead in Alabama, Tenneesse , Pennsylvania , Connecticut and Rhode Island so there is a very favorable trend going in their direction here

Brinkley: Yes and this is why I believe that supporters of either party should just wait before declaring they had a good night or not because there is still a lot of counting to be done and currently no tossup senate race has been called and only 1 tossup Governor race has which was South Carolina so everything that has happened so far is in line with expectations I would say.

Jennings: Jeff so far what results are you finding interesting

Greenfield: So far nothing but I would say what is surprising is the fact that Bredesen seems to at this point be the favorite to win and the fact is he was considered the very slightly underdog going in so that is interesting.

Jennings: Now lets take a look at our house projection at this moment and this is how it looks like and then lets send it over to Sam and Cokie for their analysis of the projection so far :

Democrats: 251-261(+11-+21)
Republicans: 173-183(-11-21)
Independents: 1(-)

Donaldson: As you can see the Democrats are just now two seats away from being guaranteed a liberal majority in the house which would be a pretty big blow to President Bush as he would lose the working majority he had the past two years, which would really end any hopes of any major conservative pieces of legislation passing . Now I will want to remind our viewers that there are 435 house seats in the country so it will take some time before we can find out whether Democrats will indeed get that majority or not though the trendline at the moment is going in their favor.

Roberts: I would agree but I would like to point out there are stuff he can do that both conservatives and liberals would like such as bringing deficts down, pass tougher laws on law and order issues and he also has the power of the Presidency to cement in many of his accomplishments from the past 6 years but especially the past two. So it will be interesting to see what direction the President takes over the next two years and only time will tell.

Jennings: Thanks Sam and Cokie . I do want to let the viewers know though that ABC does have a projection to make and that is in Alabama- we can now project that Governor Jim Folsom Jr will indeed win a full term on his own right by defeating former Alabama Governor Fob James

Jennings: Ok we will be sending it back to your local stations for the rest of the hour and be back at 10 Eastern for the next poll closings