Pete Buttigieg 2020 campaign megathread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regardless, Buttigieg does have a PoC problem that he needs to fix to have any hope of getting even the Vice Presidential nomination this cycle, Thing is, it won't be solved by mere media stunts

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Without even bringing up the gay card, there are plenty of reasons why he has failed to secure much support from African-Americans so far. I don't think they'll affect him much, if any, in the general election, but they may keep him from getting the nomination.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I really don’t want to think what the Russian bots would do with a Buttigieg candidacy. They won’t have any trouble pretending to be homophobic.

"Russian bots" are so 2016 ...

Nobody will give a damn about it next year (Facebook usage is going down as well) and for every voter who complains about his gayness, he will likely get 2 additional ones from the non-voter pool.

My thought is more that anyone who would have eir vote affected by whether a candidate is gay is more than likely not to vote Democratic anyway.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

He has been using Republican talking points as of late. I’m coming around to Pete, but his campaign has got to chill on the radical centrist agenda.

You need some talking points that appeal to Rs and R-leaning Indys in the primaries and the GE to win.

Hillary alienated a lot of R-leaning Indys in the Rust Belt ... and lost.

Pete is working those people right now. He’s the candidate with the highest net favourability among Independents.

How else do you guys think Beshear won a Trump+30 state or McCready came close to winning in a solid Trump district ?

You cannot win in the 2020 US of A with far leftist Democratic purity.

You can’t rely on R voters at the expense of your own. Hillary’s strategy in 2016 was to reach out to them, and look what happened: she underperformed Obama in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, allowing Trump to win.

Those voters are unreliable. You don’t win elections by straddling the middle, you win by giving voters something they can believe in and someone they can vote for. Pete’s been listening too much to the Morning Joe crowd as of late, and it’s gonna hurt his campaign in the long run.

Simply reaching out to a voter group such as Hillary's 2016 appeals to the middle aren't guaranteed to work, especially if the group in question doubts the sincerity of the candidate's appeal. That was Hillary's Achilles' heel in the 2016 GE and may well end up being Pete's in the 2020 primaries.  Pete will be much more believable as a centrist than Hillary ever was.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hot take:

If Buttigieg got the nomination, he would still win by larger margins because while the black turnout decreases substantially, the white turnout will increase even more, cancelling it out.

Hotter take: Black votes are concentrated in non-swing States.

Of course, that's true for most voting blocks. Still, it could matter in taking back Michigan and Pennsylvania. While not impossible, it's difficult to come up with a credible scenario for a Democratic victory this fall in which they don't retake at least one of those two States.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hot take:

If Buttigieg got the nomination, he would still win by larger margins because while the black turnout decreases substantially, the white turnout will increase even more, cancelling it out.

Hotter take: Black votes are concentrated in non-swing States.

Of course, that's true for most voting blocks. Still, it could matter in taking back Michigan and Pennsylvania. While not impossible, it's difficult to come up with a credible scenario for a Democratic victory this fall in which they don't retake at least one of those two States.

Blacks are in FL and there is a minimum wage initiative on the ballot, Dems can win Sunshine state with Bernie or Buttigieg

Even if that initiative drives voters to the polls, that's not the same as saying it'll increase Democratic turnout significantly.  Also, it's unlikely that a Democrat will be able to take Florida without taking either Michigan or Pennsylvania. I'll grant that if the Democrats fail to take either, then they need Florida to have any chance.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I can't see anyone picking Pete as a running mate. In general, he won't help the ticket in the GE, and where he would, there are other choices that would help more. Pete still has a chance to be the Presidential nominee this year, but none to be the Vice Presidential nominee.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I can't see anyone picking Pete as a running mate. In general, he won't help the ticket in the GE, and where he would, there are other choices that would help more. Pete still has a chance to be the Presidential nominee this year, but none to be the Vice Presidential nominee.

Plus, the rest of the field hates him for "not waiting his turn."

Waiting their turn is the primary job requirement for Vice Presidents.