Pete Buttigieg 2020 campaign megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Democratic Establishment:   BLACK VOTERS ARE 'THE BASE' OF OUR PARTY - HOW DARE YOU BERNIE BROS

Democratic Voters: proceeds to kill establishment candidate, inadvertently elevate Buttigieg
Democratic Establishment:

[Adam Griffin]

By "kill", I obviously meant their electoral chances - please don't put me on the no-fly list!

[Tintrlvr]

Democratic Establishment:   BLACK VOTERS ARE 'THE BASE' OF OUR PARTY - HOW DARE YOU BERNIE BROS

Democratic Voters: proceeds to kill establishment candidate, inadvertently elevate Buttigieg
Democratic Establishment:

The article is simply wrong or lying: 4-in-10 don't say they would vote for someone else or not vote, they just don't express a preference. This is common for black voters with candidates who aren't leading contenders in a race all the time; you see it very frequently in state-level elections such as Senate and Governor races. It's not meaningful at this stage.

For what it's worth, an actual 82-4 or 74-4 result among black voters would kill the Democrats' chances in the general election just as completely as a 57-4 result would, so if you're going to take this seriously as a hit against Buttigieg, it makes Sanders and Biden look unelectable as well.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democratic Establishment:   BLACK VOTERS ARE 'THE BASE' OF OUR PARTY - HOW DARE YOU BERNIE BROS

Democratic Voters: proceeds to kill establishment candidate, inadvertently elevate Buttigieg
Democratic Establishment:

The article is simply wrong or lying: 4-in-10 don't say they would vote for someone else or not vote, they just don't express a preference. This is common for black voters with candidates who aren't leading contenders in a race all the time; you see it very frequently in state-level elections such as Senate and Governor races. It's not meaningful at this stage.

For what it's worth, an actual 82-4 or 74-4 result among black voters would kill the Democrats' chances in the general election just as completely as a 57-4 result would, so if you're going to take this seriously as a hit against Buttigieg, it makes Sanders and Biden look unelectable as well.

Obviously most of the undecideds in that poll would go to the democrat.

[Adam Griffin]

Democratic Establishment:   BLACK VOTERS ARE 'THE BASE' OF OUR PARTY - HOW DARE YOU BERNIE BROS

Democratic Voters: proceeds to kill establishment candidate, inadvertently elevate Buttigieg
Democratic Establishment:

The article is simply wrong or lying: 4-in-10 don't say they would vote for someone else or not vote, they just don't express a preference. This is common for black voters with candidates who aren't leading contenders in a race all the time; you see it very frequently in state-level elections such as Senate and Governor races. It's not meaningful at this stage.

For what it's worth, an actual 82-4 or 74-4 result among black voters would kill the Democrats' chances in the general election just as completely as a 57-4 result would, so if you're going to take this seriously as a hit against Buttigieg, it makes Sanders and Biden look unelectable as well.

I'm very familiar with the proverbial "playing hard to get" behavior that black voters express in GE polling early in the cycle. Failing to secure 4 in 10 at this point in the cycle is a clear indicator that Buttigieg would bomb with black voters, pure and simple. Anywhere from 70-80% is where the number should be at this particular point for candidates who aren't going to crumble in this regard.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democratic Establishment:   BLACK VOTERS ARE 'THE BASE' OF OUR PARTY - HOW DARE YOU BERNIE BROS

Democratic Voters: proceeds to kill establishment candidate, inadvertently elevate Buttigieg
Democratic Establishment:

That's why it's not a conspiracy. A binary race between Buttigieg and Sanders in the primary would cause Sanders to win, probably significantly, especially in the South. The DNC would be stupid to prop him up by illegitimate means. The Iowa Democratic Party are the ones who really f***ed up here.

[Lourdes]

http://www.mayopete.io/

lmao

[Tender Branson]

Pete expanding into Super Tuesday with a new ad buy:

[atheist4thecause]

Thanks. Appreciate it.

I dont trust 538 that much after the 2016 Presidential polls.

Why not exactly? Nate Silver predicted the strong possibility of a PV/EV split and was by far the most bearish on Clinton’s chances of all the forecasters.

I'm not sure who you are including in "forecasters", but this is basically Fake News. Some people predicted a Trump victory. 538 forecasted Clinton would win around 85%-15% or sometimes even wider around two weeks before the election. This was pretty steady for around a month. Then, right before the election, they drastically drop the odds to around 65%-35% Clinton. Then they widen the odds basically the day of around 70%-30%.

538 also talks about how their forecast is not a prediction. This means you can't criticize them for being wrong, because what they are saying is a probability, not to be determined by a single result. They want to deflect criticism when the unlikely happens, but then they want all the credit when the likely takes place. They want their cake and eat it to.

Because the 538 model is based solely on probabilities, it's completely unfalsifiable. We have no idea what the actual probability was of Trump winning. In fact, they are misusing probabilities trying ot measure a single event with them. It is very possible that Trump had an over 95% chance to win, or maybe he had an under 5% chance to win. How would we know? What does probability even mean in this sense? Then you can get into questions about are we in a determinate universe where the probability was 100% that Trump would win?

538 is not trustworthy and people should stop trusting the forecast.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hot take:

If Buttigieg got the nomination, he would still win by larger margins because while the black turnout decreases substantially, the white turnout will increase even more, cancelling it out.

Hotter take: Black votes are concentrated in non-swing States.

Of course, that's true for most voting blocks. Still, it could matter in taking back Michigan and Pennsylvania. While not impossible, it's difficult to come up with a credible scenario for a Democratic victory this fall in which they don't retake at least one of those two States.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take:

If Buttigieg got the nomination, he would still win by larger margins because while the black turnout decreases substantially, the white turnout will increase even more, cancelling it out.

Hotter take: Black votes are concentrated in non-swing States.

Of course, that's true for most voting blocks. Still, it could matter in taking back Michigan and Pennsylvania. While not impossible, it's difficult to come up with a credible scenario for a Democratic victory this fall in which they don't retake at least one of those two States.

Blacks are in FL and there is a minimum wage initiative on the ballot, Dems can win Sunshine state with Bernie or Buttigieg

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hot take:

If Buttigieg got the nomination, he would still win by larger margins because while the black turnout decreases substantially, the white turnout will increase even more, cancelling it out.

Hotter take: Black votes are concentrated in non-swing States.

Of course, that's true for most voting blocks. Still, it could matter in taking back Michigan and Pennsylvania. While not impossible, it's difficult to come up with a credible scenario for a Democratic victory this fall in which they don't retake at least one of those two States.

Blacks are in FL and there is a minimum wage initiative on the ballot, Dems can win Sunshine state with Bernie or Buttigieg

Even if that initiative drives voters to the polls, that's not the same as saying it'll increase Democratic turnout significantly.  Also, it's unlikely that a Democrat will be able to take Florida without taking either Michigan or Pennsylvania. I'll grant that if the Democrats fail to take either, then they need Florida to have any chance.

[Tender Branson]

Gigantic, middle-aged crowd in Nashua, NH right now listening to Pete (and a few thousand more outside):

https://twitter.com/chrismeagher/status/1226560806306942976

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1226559922835525634

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If Pete wins the nomination, Trump is guaranteed to win another term.

Too many white moderates and liberals are dumb. SMH.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If Pete wins the nomination, Trump is guaranteed to win another term.

Too many white moderates and liberals are dumb. SMH.

This has been debunked numerous times.

By whom? What?

[Sbane]

I think one could argue Buttigieg is more electable than Sanders in a state like Pennsylvania, specifically being a better candidate for the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Same with Wisconsin and Minnesota. Perhaps Arizona as well. Beyond that it's hard to see other swing states where he would be a better candidate than Sanders. The African American vote will be a big unknown with him as the nominee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think one could argue Buttigieg is more electable than Sanders in a state like Pennsylvania, specifically being a better candidate for the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Same with Wisconsin and Minnesota. Perhaps Arizona as well. Beyond that it's hard to see other swing states where he would be a better candidate than Sanders. The African American vote will be a big unknown with him as the nominee.

Wow, I didn't realize that Chuck Schumer was a poster on this forum before. Here's what you said in 2016.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin."

[Sbane]

I think one could argue Buttigieg is more electable than Sanders in a state like Pennsylvania, specifically being a better candidate for the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Same with Wisconsin and Minnesota. Perhaps Arizona as well. Beyond that it's hard to see other swing states where he would be a better candidate than Sanders. The African American vote will be a big unknown with him as the nominee.

Wow, I didn't realize that Chuck Schumer was a poster on this forum before. Here's what you said in 2016.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin."

I might have said something similar but now I realize I was wrong. I changed my mind after reading studies that show profiles of swing voters, Pew political typology, and meeting people of different socioeconomic backgrounds due to the nature of my job.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He's gay so he can't really win over the AA voter block. This would allow Trump a freepass in Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

He's gay so he can't really win over the AA voter block. This would allow Trump a freepass in Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.

How many black people do you personally know

[Da2017]

I've been underwhelmed as of late. He needs to loosen up. I know some say he is Obama,but Obama had a coolness to him,something Buttigieg is lacking. Right now he is more of a Rubio. He seems robotic. I don't see a path past New Hampshire. Bloomberg is gonna be an obstacle, along with his lack of appeal to POC. He is young,so he will have pleanty of opportunities to run.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

He's gay so he can't really win over the AA voter block. This would allow Trump a freepass in Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.

How many black people do you personally know

I'm Black and what he's saying is true. If Buttigieg won the nomination, then many Black people will stay home. Also, Buttigieg comes off as inauthentic and has a suspect racial record as mayor.

[Ljube]

He's gay so he can't really win over the AA voter block. This would allow Trump a freepass in Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.

How many black people do you personally know

I'm Black and what he's saying is true. If Buttigieg won the nomination, then many Black people will stay home. Also, Buttigieg comes off as inauthentic and has a suspect racial record as mayor.

What about the other candidates?
Bloomberg absolutely hates the Black people.
Klobuchar doesn't like them much either.
Biden was in favor of segregationist policies.

So, who is left?
Steyer (probably doesn't hate the Black people and might just like them)
Warren (neither likes them, or hates them)
Sanders (probably likes them)

Will Sanders win the majority of black voters?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

He's gay so he can't really win over the AA voter block. This would allow Trump a freepass in Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.

How many black people do you personally know

I'm Black and what he's saying is true. If Buttigieg won the nomination, then many Black people will stay home. Also, Buttigieg comes off as inauthentic and has a suspect racial record as mayor.

What about the other candidates?
Bloomberg absolutely hates the Black people.
Klobuchar doesn't like them much either.
Biden was in favor of segregationist policies.

So, who is left?
Steyer (probably doesn't hate the Black people and might just like them)
Warren (neither likes them, or hates them)
Sanders (probably likes them)

Will Sanders win the majority of black voters?

This thread is about Pete Buttigieg.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/1227312719155646464

Revolting.