The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

Winthrop / ETV Poll of 11 southern states:



49% Approve
38% Disapprove

This Winthrop/ETV Poll was conducted among 955 registered voters from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA between May 1 and May 17, 2009. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters in these states. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.17 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error.

http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/results/10/0/65/

[Tender Branson]

That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

[Tender Branson]

New York (Siena Research Institute, May 18-21)

72% Favorable
23% Unfavorable

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/SNY0509%20Crosstabs_Final_2.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Michigan (EPIC-MRA, May 18-21)

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

61% Total Positive
37% Total Negative

http://www.wxyz.com/content/news/seenon7priority/story/EXCLUSIVE-POLL-Michigan-on-Wrong-Track/EXSk_1_-p0u-ZwRskF-pZg.cspx

[Tender Branson]

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University)

71% Approve
22% Disapprove

From May 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,575 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1301

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac University)

62% Approve
31% Disapprove

From May 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,191 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 517 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 561 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1304

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen:

59% (+3) Approve (37% Strongly Approve, +2)
40% (-3) Disapprove (27% Strongly Disapprove, -2)

"That’s the highest level of overall approval since March."

Gallup:

64% Approve (nc)
29% Disapprove (-1)



New Jersey (Research 2000/DailyKos)

69% Favorable
26% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 New Jersey Poll was conducted from May 25 through May 27, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/5/27/NJ/306

[Tender Branson]

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following.

And even is he is like Carter (which I doubt), the Republicans have nobody like Reagan for '12.

They just don't have ...

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Rasmussen, 500 LV, June 3)

60% Approve
40% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_june_3_2009

Quinnipiac University

59% Approve
31% Disapprove

From May 26 - June 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 3,097 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1308

Democracy Corps (May 28 - June 1, 1013 LV)

58% Approve
33% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor060109fq7-web.pdf

[Tender Branson]

After getting his best results in a while, Rasmussen today shows Obama with his worst approvals so far:

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. That’s the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded."



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

[Tender Branson]

Florida (Strategic Vision, 1200 Likely Voters, May 29-31)

60% Approve

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/06/05/fl-poll-crist-cruising-to-sen-gov-race-tight/

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is back up to 56-43 (+3, -3) and +7 again.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen today:

58% Approve (+2)
41% Disapprove (-2)

So the 53-47 was really an outlier ...

[Tender Branson]

Alabama (Public Policy Polling)

45% Approve
47% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 667 Alabama voters from June 2nd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_609.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Don't know what's up with SurveyUSA. They used to release their monthly approval polls by the end of each month and the May numbers are still missing ...

As for AL, Obama won't win it in 2012 ...

[Tender Branson]

Today's Gallup:

61% Approve (-1)
34% Disapprove (+2)

Probably the closest Rasmussen and Gallup have been for a while now ...

[Tender Branson]

Florida (Quinnipiac University)

58% Approve
35% Disapprove

62% Favorable
32% Unfavorable

From June 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,245 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 486 Republicans and 477 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311

New Jersey (Quinnipiac University)

68% Approve
25% Disapprove

From June 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,338 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311

[Tender Branson]

Diageo Hotline:

65% Approve
31% Disapprove

67% Favorable
29% Unfavorable

Looking ahead to 2012, if the presidential election were held today, would you
vote to reelect Barack Obama or would you like to see someone else become President?

46% Reelect
30% Someone else
18% Too early to decide

The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from June 4 – 7, 2009, among a random, representative sample of 800 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/FDDiageoHotlineJuneToplineFORRELEASE061009.pdf

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina (Civitas Institute)

66% Approve
28% Disapprove

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted May 18-21, 2009 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/poll-results/may-2009-poll-results

[Tender Branson]

So PPP has him at 51% there, but Civitas at 66%? I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's closer to the 51% than the 66%.

The guys from PPP note that because of their automated polls people are more likely to give negative opinions on politicians, rather than to real people which Civitas is using.

I think 51% is slightly too low and 66% way too high (joke poll).

55% seems to be right for NC at the moment.

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Rasmussen)

52% Approve
46% Disapprove

(Tim Kaine)

62% Approve
35% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin (Research 2000)

63% Favorable
31% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Wisconsin Poll was conducted from June 8 through June 10, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/10/WI/309

[Tender Branson]

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.

Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.

I agree, outliers happen.

And Rasmussen's final VA poll before the election wasn't the best either ...

[Tender Branson]

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.

Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.

I agree, outliers happen.

And Rasmussen's final VA poll before the election wasn't the best either ...

Didnt he show Obama up just 49%-48% in the final VA poll?

51-47

Fox News Poll

Obama Approval/Disapproval

Overall: 63%/31%

Hmm, I find it strange to see Gallup's adult voter model having lower approvals than Fox's registered voter model ...

[Tender Branson]

Illinois (Rasmussen)

62% Approve
37% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/61_of_illinois_voters_say_they_would_definitely_vote_against_roland_burris