The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire (503 adults, University of NH, April 13-22):

63% Approve (D-97, I-62, R-36)
29% Disapprove (D-1, I-28, R-54)

64% Favorable (D-96, I-66, R-34)
27% Unfavorable (D-2, I-26, R-52)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_spring_presapp42709.pdf

[Tender Branson]

CBS News/NYT Poll (April 22-26):

68% Approve (D-91, I-65, R-31)
23% Disapprove (D-3, I-24, R-57)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_042709_100days.pdf

[Tender Branson]

CNN/Opinion Research:

63% Approve
33% Disapprove

Democrats overwhelmingly approve of how Obama is handling his job as president; 61 percent of independents agree. Only 28 percent of Republicans say the president is doing a good job in office.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with 2,019 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/poll.obama.policies/index.html

[Tender Branson]

SurveyUSA April Polls:

Alabama:

48% Approve (+1)
49% Disapprove (+2)

California:

69% Approve (+2)
27% Disapprove (-1)

Iowa:

59% Approve (+2)
35% Disapprove (-5)

Kansas:

44% Approve (-11)
50% Disapprove (+10)

Kentucky:

52% Approve (-4)
41% Disapprove (+3)

Minnesota:

63% Approve (+2)
33% Disapprove (+1)

Missouri:

57% Approve (nc)
40% Disapprove (+1)

New Mexico:

63% Approve (+2)
32% Disapprove (-3)

New York:

73% Approve (+1)
24% Disapprove (+1)

Oregon:

58% Approve (-4)
37% Disapprove (+6)

Virginia:

57% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (+4)

Washington:

64% Approve (+2)
30% Disapprove (-4)

Wisconsin:

56% Approve (+3)
42% Disapprove (nc)

No data for Massachusetts so far.

KS = Outlier ? Or just returning to its conservative roots ?

[Tender Branson]

... Survey USA is a GOP-leaning poll.

How so ?

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin (St. Norbert College, April 1-9, 400 adults)

How satisfied are you with the way President Obama is doing his job overall? Would you say
you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

60% Very/Somewhat Satisfied
35% Very/Somewhat Dissatisfied

http://www.snc.edu/surveycenter/docs/2009/national.pdf


Arizona (AZ State University)

53% Approve
36% Disapprove

Support for Obama divides strongly along partisan lines. While 87 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents polled gave the president positive ratings, only 32 percent of Republicans said he is doing a good job.

The poll, conducted April 23-26, sampled 390 registered voters, in a split of 40 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 26 percent Independent. The results have a 5 percent margin of error.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/138529

[Tender Branson]

Utah (Dan Jones/KSL-TV/Deseret News)

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=6306801

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac University:

58% Approve
30% Disapprove

President Obama wins 90 - 4 percent approval from Democrats and 53 - 33 percent approval from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 59 - 26 percent. Black voters approve 93 - 1 percent, White voters 53 - 35 percent. There is a 10-point gender gap, as women approve 63 - 25 percent while men approve 53 - 35 percent.

From April 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1291

[Tender Branson]

Oklahoma (Sooner Poll, April 23-26, 318 Likely Voters)

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

"The only good news for Obama was that, even at 47 percent, his approval rating is higher in Oklahoma than George W. Bush's during the final year of his presidency."

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20090429_16_A1_OLHMIY212294

[Tender Branson]

Louisiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research)

53% Excellent/Good
38% Not So Good/Poor

600 Likely Voters, April 13-16, 2009

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/3005press-release.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R)

61% Approve
32% Disapprove

Survey of 1000 registered voters, conducted April 13-16.

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/7/original/RR_April_09_Toplines.pdf

Diageo Hotline:

62% Approve
33% Disapprove

Survey of 800 registered voters, conducted April 23-26.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/FDDiageoHotlinePoll100DaysMasterToplineforRelease.pdf

New York (SurveyUSA, conducted separately after their April poll release)

66% Approve
28% Disapprove

If there was a do-over election for president of the United States today, would you vote for Barack Obama the Democrat? Or John McCain the Republican?

Obama - 62%
McCain - 32%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca1b31c7-00c9-4032-95d5-33cae93ccf7d

[Tender Branson]

Massachusetts (Suffolk University)

66% Approve
27% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/SUPRC.Mass.Marginals.April.28.2009.pdf

Florida (Suffolk University)

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Flordia.Marginals.April.28.2009.pdf

The Suffolk University/7NEWS poll of Massachusetts voters was conducted April 24 through April 27, 2009.  The Florida poll was conducted April 26 through April 28. The margin of error on each study of 400 is +/- 4.9 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.  All respondents from the statewide surveys were registered voters.

[Tender Branson]

Ohio (University of Cincinnati)

63% Approve (D 89, I 54, R 30)
32% Disapprove (D 8, I 41, R 65)

Registered to vote ?

62% Approve
34% Disapprove

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. The Poll was conducted between April 16 and April 27, 2009. A random sample of 818 adults from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op043009.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html

[Tender Branson]

FYI:

Hamilton Campaigns doesn't seem to be a DEM hack poll institute, as they had Obama up by 4 in Florida (47-43) a few weeks before the election.

In FL-24, they even showed Kosmas (D) trailing Incumbent Rep. Feeney (R) by 42-43, but Kosmas beat Feeney by 57-41 in the General election.

In FL-25 they had Rep. Diaz-Balart (R) ahead by 3 (45-42),  he won by 53-47.

http://www.hamiltoncampaigns.com

[Tender Branson]

Georgia- Research 2000/Kos

Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/29/GA/291

Wow, that's pretty bad... it's not like he lost Georgia by a huge margin either.

Not really. Rasmussen recently had him at 54-46 and Strategic Vision at 55-39.

Or Georgia voters don't like Obama personally, but like what he's doing ...

[Tender Branson]

Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html

That's better than I expected, although I guess his job approval will be about 56-58.

No, according to Howey Politics, Obama's approval rating in Indiana is 61-36.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2009/05/01/bayh-votes-against-obamas-budget

[Tender Branson]

I'm going to interpret the 63% support for Bayh in Indiana as a "high 5" in Indiana for Obama. That's not too far off from Ohio. Georgia gets cut down a bit.

No, you got this wrong:

The poll was conducted for Evan Bayh, but also asked for Obama's approval.

Obama's approval in Indiana is 61-36, his favorable rating is 61-38.

Bayh's approval is at 73%, his favorable rating at 74-23.

[Tender Branson]

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

[Tender Branson]

The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup is widening again:

54-45 (nc, nc) vs. 67-28 (+4, -3 in the last 2 days)

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.

The Rasmussen and Gallup polls I mentioned were not conducted on Inauguration Day, but between Nov. 2 and 4.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Democracy Corps poll should also be noted, because they were very accurate in 2008:

They showed Obama vs. McCain at 51-44 in a 3-way race and 52-44 in a 2-way, the House at 52-42 (it ended up as 53-44) and Bush's approval at 30-64.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/11/national-survey-7/?section=Survey

Now to their new likely voter poll (1000 actual 2008 voters and 851 likely 2010 voters):

58% Approve
32% Disapprove

2010 Congressional Vote:

50% Democrats
40% Republicans

http://www.democracycorps.com/download.php?attachment=dc10042609fq5web.pdf

So what is causing the discrepancy between them and Rasmussen, as they both use LV-models ? Why does Rasmussen show 13% higher disapprovals for Obama and why is there a 13% difference in the Congressional vote, desite the fact that DC was about as/or even more accurate in Nov. 2008 than Rasmussen ? Is it really like Sam Spade thinks that LV are lying to real people more than machines when they are polled ?

[Tender Branson]

Obama-surge ?

Gallup: 68-26 (+5, -5 in the past 3 days)

Rasmussen: 56-43 (+2, -2)

[Tender Branson]

New York (Marist, 1029 RV, April 28-29):

64% Excellent/Good
34% Fair/Poor

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/ny090428/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm