Things Get Nuttier in 2020

[Maxwell]

Final Rewind - 2015 Gubernatorial elections

Lousiana was surprisingly competitive, Mayor Mitch Landrieu decided to run, leading to many democrats dropping out of the race. Similarly, Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne convinced many Republicans to drop out. Not all of them, as Newell Normand decided to run still. As a result, Mitch Landrieu won the jungle primary, but not with 50%, and Dardenne pulled out in run-off.

Louisiana Jungle Primary:
Mayor of New Orleans Mitch Landrieu: 42%
Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne: 40%
Sheriff Newell Normand: 15%
Others: 3%

Louisiana Run-Off:
Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne: 52%
Mayor of New Orleans Mitch Landrieu: 48%

In Kentucky, a lot of the Democratic bench had been aiming for both Senate seats, so instead Jerry Abramson decided to aim for the Governorship. He ran a tough campaign against Thomas Massie, but despite changing demographics in Kentucky, Abramson prevailed by a point.

Kentucky:
Lieutenant Governor Jerry Abramson: 49%
Congressman Thomas Massie: 48%

So no changes in the seating.

[Maxwell]

Christie Campaign leaks VP list

Governor Brian Sanodval of Nevada


Senator John Thune of South Dakota


Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico


Governor Justin Amash of Michigan


Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts


Many weren't surprised by Sandoval, Thune, and Martinez, those were people that everybody was imagining on the Christie ticket. What people weren't expecting was Scott Brown and, particularly, Justin Amash, who won his Governor election in an upset and is more of a Paul-esqe candidate, not necessarily a person who has been tested in a general election. Some praised Christie for thinking about Amash as a brave choice, others thought it was ridiculous and some people, like John McCain, outright went out in the media and criticized the idea of Christie-Amash.

Meanwhile on the Democrat side:

Biden takes Indiana, West Virginia, Patrick takes North Carolina

Indiana:
Joe Biden: 54%
Deval Patrick: 46%

North Carolina
Deval Patrick: 57%
Joe Biden: 43%

West Viriginia:
Joe Biden: 63%
Deval Patrick: 37%

Delegates:
Deval Patrick: 1292 (54.45% of Allocated Delegates)
Joe Biden: 1080 (45.55% of Allocated Delegates)
Unallocated Delegates: 636

Cuomo announces he will endorse at the end of the primaries!



National Polls:
Deval Patrick: 51%
Joe Biden: 48%
Undecided: 1%

Nebraska:
Joe Biden: 55%
Deval Patrick: 43%
Undecided: 2%

Oregon:
Deval Patrick: 57%
Joe Biden: 42%
Undecided: 1%

Texas:
Joe Biden: 49%
Deval Patrick: 48%
Undecided: 3%

California:
Deval Patrick: 53%
Joe Biden: 45%
Undecided: 2%

New Jersey:
Joe Biden: 50%
Deval Patrick: 49%
Undecided: 1%

[Niemeyerite]

Biden should put the focus in California, with Bill and Obama campaigning for him. An 8-point deficit there means a lot of delegates for Patrick, he'd better close the gap there and win by a larger margin in TX...

[tmthforu94]

Cuomo, considering his family and connections, would almost certainly endorse Biden in this scenario, IMO, as he'll be lobbying for a 2020 bid.

[badgate]

Tom Cole spoke at my commencement, and if I'm being perfectly honest, I fell asleep for most of it.

[Maxwell]

Tom Cole spoke at my commencement, and if I'm being perfectly honest, I fell asleep for most of it.

He's not an entertaining guy, I'll take it for that.

[Maxwell]

Governor Brown endorses Patrick, as does Lieutenant Governor Newsom



The Castro Brothers surrogate for Biden in Texas



Hillary, Hillary, Hillary



"I will not be endorsing in this race until the picture gets a bit clearer, as both of these men are good friends of mine and are very understanding of the issues at hand."

Todays Results:

Pete DeFazio and Ron Wyden's endorsements boost Patricks margin in Oregon

Oregon:
Deval Patrick: 61%
Joe Biden: 39

Biden takes Nebraska!

Nebraska:
Joe Biden: 56%
Deval Patrick: 44%

Delegates:
Deval Patrick: 1346 (54.54% of Allocated Delegates)
Joe Biden: 1122 (45.46% of Allocated Delegates)
Unallocated Delegates: 636

or

Deval Patrick: 1346 (43.36% of All Delegates)
Joe Biden: 1122 (36.15% of All Delegates)
Unallocated Delegates: 636 (20.49% of All Delegates)



"I think VP Biden needs to get it through his head... ITS OVER. No Matter how many times he nearly ties Governor Patrick, no matter how many times he almost upsets, no matter what, Patrick keeps coming up with the sum needed to have a majority of what is necessary. Patrick has run a brilliant campaign. Not to take anything from Joe, he's done surprisingly well considering all of our predicitions, but he needs to know when to bow out and this is the time. Patrick scored huge in Oregon, and Biden fumbled by letting Jerry Brown endorse his opponent. It's already over in my mind."



"Gosh, folks, I was watching Scarborough this morning, and I thought I heard deja vu. Folks, he said we couldn't win! How many times have they said that about this campaign. What do we do? We prove em wrong! Look, if Patrick had this thing in the bag, he would've had it by now. If we went by those same indicators I would've been done months ago, and take a look here, do I look done? Does this campaign look done? DO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE LOOK DONE? WE HAVEN'T FINISHED OUR MESSAGE OF CHANGE AND IT WILL CONTINUE IN A BIDEN ADMINISTRATION,  THANK YOU, AND GOD BLESS AMERICA!"



"As much as I am ready to lead this nation into a new era of prosperity, I do agree with Vice President Joe Biden, this campaign is not yet over. I am ready to challenge him to a final debate, one last stand, to see who will be our parties nominee for the Presidency in 2016, because our electorate needs a strong leader with a strong vision!"

Head to Head:

Chris Christie: 48%
Deval Patrick: 47%
Undecided: 5%

Chris Christie: 50%
Joe Biden: 46%
Undecided: 4%

[Niemeyerite]

I'm disappointed, Jerry supported Patrick He seemed to be a nice, old (he is), liberal, comeback democrat, just like Joe.

[Maxwell]

VP Choice Poll:

Christie/Sandoval: 50%
Patrick/Generic: 47%
Undecided: 3%

Chris Christie/Sandoval: 52%
Biden/Generic: 45%
Undecided: 2%

Christie/Thune: 49%
Patrick/Generic: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Christie/Thune: 51%
Biden/Generic: 46%
Undecided: 3%

Christie/Martinez: 51%
Patrick/Generic: 46%
Undecided: 3%

Christie/Martinez: 53%
Biden/Generic: 45%
Undecided: 2%

Christie/Amash: 48%
Patrick/Generic: 48%
Undecided: 4%

Christie/Amash: 50%
Biden/Generic: 47%
Undecided: 3%

Christie/Brown: 49%
Patrick/Generic: 48%
Undecided: 3%

Christie/Brown: 50%
Biden/Generic: 48%
Undecided: 2%

As many expected, the two best choices are Martinez and Sandoval. Governor Sandoval left the GOP primaries with 34/12 Approvals nationwide and 62/22 Approvals in Nevada, and Susana Martinez has even higher approvals in her home state of New Mexico. Brown has huge issues, and Amash is unproven (actually helps Deval Patrick), as many saw, although the only major publicity that Amash has gotten was his upset win as Governor of Michigan and bashing from John McCain and Lindsey Graham.

Coming next... Biden-Patrick Debate face-off!

[Maxwell]

Debate looks fairly even, with Patrick having a slight edge



Who won?
Deval Patrick: 37%
Joe Biden: 32%
Tie: 26%
Undecided: 5%

Both brought their A-Game in the debate, which accounts for the high % of people who said the debate was a tie. Some would say that Patrick won the debate on a clearer economic vision, while the people who said Biden won did it on a clearer foreign policy vision. The debate seemed to leave the Democrats more optimistic about their chances in 2016.

Biden takes Arkansas, Kentucky by the surprise of no one.

Arkansas:
Joe Biden: 71%
Deval Patrick: 29%

Kentucky:
Joe Biden: 62%
Deval Patrick: 38%

Delegates:
Deval Patrick: 1383 (43.07% of All Delegates)
Joe Biden: 1192 (37.12% of All Delegates)
Unallocated Delegates: 636 (19.81% of All Delegates)

National Polls:
Deval Patrick: 52%
Joe Biden: 48%
Undecided: 0%

Texas:
Joe Biden: 49%
Deval Patrick: 49%
Undecided: 2%

California:
Deval Patrick: 54%
Joe Biden: 45%
Undecided: 1%

New Jersey:
Joe Biden: 50%
Deval Patrick: 50%
Undecided: 0%

Montana:
Joe Biden: 52%
Deval Patrick: 46%
Undecided: 2%

New Mexico:
Deval Patrick: 58%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 1%

South Dakota:
Deval Patrick: 53%
Joe Biden: 47%
Undecided: 0%

[Maxwell]

PATRICK UPSETS IN TEXAS!



Texas:
Deval Patrick: 50.5%
Joe Biden: 49.5%

"Thank you Texas Democrats, and we continue our march to the nomination!"

Delegates:
Deval Patrick: 1503 (43.70% of All Delegates)
Joe Biden: 1300 (37.80% of All Delegates)
Unallocated Delegates: 636 (18.49% of All Delegates)



"I'm a man who fights, and I am going to continue my fight for the nomination of the Democratic Party! We lost Texas by a point, but we are going to march on the Democratic Convention floor with more strength than ever!"

National Polls:
Deval Patrick: 54%
Joe Biden: 46%
Undecided: 0%

California:
Deval Patrick: 57%
Joe Biden: 43%
Undecided: 0%

New Jersey:
Deval Patrick: 52%
Joe Biden: 48%
Undecided: 0%

Montana:
Joe Biden: 51%
Deval Patrick: 48%
Undecided: 1%

New Mexico:
Deval Patrick: 60%
Joe Biden: 40%
Undecided: 0%

South Dakota:
Deval Patrick: 55%
Joe Biden: 45%
Undecided: 0%

Pundits declare "IT'S OVER"



"I think Biden needs to go out there and stop lying to his crowds and tell them that its over. I know he has that charismatic spark, which is why he's gone as far as he has, but the numbers won't add up for him. Even if Cuomo endorses him, a little over a third of those delegates will go to Patrick ANYWAY, and that means Patrick gets the nod, not Biden. I just think its inconceivable that he keeps going out there like he won the nomination every single time he loses a state."



"Watching the Democrats trying to decide their nominee is like watching me trying to decide which fast food joint to go to... it's not going to happen any time soon!"

[Sec. of State Superique]

Poor Biden!

[Niemeyerite]

Yeah, it's probably over if Patrick is 15 points ahead in CA...

So, the General Election will be all about Christie.

[Maxwell]

It's over... Patrick sweep!



California:
Deval Patrick: 58%
Joe Biden: 42%

New Jersey:
Deval Patrick: 53%
Joe Biden: 47%

Montana:
Deval Patrick: 50.4%
Joe Biden: 49.6%

New Mexico:
Deval Patrick: 61%
Joe Biden: 39%

South Dakota:
Deval Patrick: 57%
Joe Biden: 43%

Delegates:
Deval Patrick: 1875 (45.92% of All Delegates)
Joe Biden: 1572 (38.50% of All Delegates)
Unallocated Delegates: 636 (15.58% of All Delegates)

Biden says its time to unite, stands by Governor Patrick's victory



"It is time... time for me to stand my ground. Deval Patrick is a great man, and would make a great President. I thought I would make a great president as well but, there is a time for everything and I guess time past me by. I will campaign boldly for this man because I know that if circumstances had gone a different way, he would do the same for me. America, this isn't about Biden or Patrick, its about whether or not we want to continue to change our outlook on America, and folks, we both agree, that change needs to continue in order for us to become a prosperous nation again. So stand up and clap for Deval Patrick, he's truly earned the Democratic Nomination!"

Delegates:
Deval Patrick: 3447 (84.42% of all Delegates)
Unallocated: 636 (15.58% of all Delegates)

DEVAL PATRICK IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE




For the first time in a poll, Patrick passes Christie!

National:
Deval Patrick: 49%
Chris Christie: 48%
Undecided: 3%

Coming Soon: VP lists, Campaign Fights, and Maps, Maps, Maps.

[Maxwell]

Yeah, it's probably over if Patrick is 15 points ahead in CA...

So, the General Election will be all about Christie.

You don't know this, there could be a charismatic Vice President still on the Campaign trail/a new charismatic Vice President...

[Maxwell]

Patrick leaks VP List

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts



Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York



Governor Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania



Senator Brian Schweitzer of Montana



Congressman Peter DeFazio of Oregon



Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana



There were mixed reactions to a lot of Patrick's VP ideas. The one people were most excited about were Schweitzer on the more liberal side and Cuomo on the more conservative side. DeFazio was one of the more out there choices, but like Warren, was one of the more favored choices by the left. The most criticized choice for the list was Joe Donnelly, who many on the conservative side thought wasn't really going to win re-election in 2018 anyway, while many liberals saw that he voted with the Democrats the fewest times of any of the current incumbents, and would not be reliable as a VP.

Breaking: Christie meeting with Sandoval in Nevada



Obama quickly embraces Patrick, campaigns with him in Ohio



National Poll:
Deval Patrick: 48%
Chris Christie: 48%
Undecided: 4%

Map with Toss-Ups

Chris Christie (R) -- 191 EVs
Deval Patrick (D) -- 191 EVs

Map No Toss-Ups

Deval Patrick -- 272 EVs
Chris Christie -- 266 EVs

Key Swing States:

Florida:
Chris Christie: 49%
Deval Patrick: 45%
Undecided: 6%

Minnesota:
Deval Patrick: 49%
Chris Christie: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Wisconsin:
Deval Patrick: 48%
Chris Christie: 47%
Undecided: 5%

New Mexico:
Chris Christie: 50%
Deval Patrick: 47%
Undecided: 3%

New Jersey:
Deval Patrick: 47%
Chris Christie: 44%
Undecided: 9%

New Hampshire:
Chris Christie: 49%
Deval Patrick: 48%
Undecided: 3%

[Maxwell]

Rubio not censured!



"I'd like to thank my family and my supporters for standing with me through these hard times, and we made it through these accusations, and we will move forward with our lives, as I continue with my re-election campaign after these accusations."

Florida Senate Poll:
Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio: 45%
State Senator Nann Rich: 33%
Independent Bud Chiles: 15%
Undecided: 7%

Vice President Biden campaigns for Harry Reid in Nevada



"In all my years in the Senate, Harry Reid stood up and lead the Democratic Party, through times good and times bad. We need him back in Washington folks, and we need him to lead a new legion of Democratic senators that will change this nation once again!" *applause*

Nevada Poll:
Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki: 50%
Incumbent Senator Harry Reid: 46%
Undecided: 4%

Christie campaigns in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania before he leaves on foreign policy trail



"Deval Patrick wants you to believe that all this hope and change rhetoric, once again, is going to actually change things. I am afraid not, Governor, and the only thing that will is tough decision making and doing whats right, and sometimes hard, for the American people, and thats what I've done throughout my tenure as Governor of New Jersey."

What about Governor Kasich?



Many pundits in the media are wondering if Governor John Kasich of Ohio is a good pick for Chris Christie. Dick Morris has charged that two Governors won't do well for the ticket, but many others argue that Kasich's experience as a legislature in the house helps solid his experience. Not to mention his approvals in Ohio which, while they aren't in the top 10, are impressive considering where he started and the challenges he faced electorally. And he has presidential ambitions from way back... 16 years ago he ran for President for a little while before hoping out of the race early on. Some GOP insiders say a person not on the list is possible, and if that is the case, then some say Kasich may be one of the more likely dark horse picks.

Patrick/Schweitzer 2016? Is there a ring to it?



The most obvious pick to a lot of people on the Democratic side is Governor Brian Schweitzer. Now Andrew Cuomo has some leverage to get the Vice Presidential seat, but not the excitement. He drained that with a failed presidential campaign, as many polls will show. Brian Schweitzer endorsed Deval Patrick rather early in the primaries when Elizabeth Warren left the race, and campaigned for him in his home state of Montana, and helped contribute the final straw that broke the camels back. Both a newly elected Senator and a former Governor, dual wielding legislative and executive experience, and fills a void that Patrick often lacks: charisma, something Governor Cuomo happens to also lack.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Hold on, why is Christie leading in NM and NH, but not OH or IA?

[Maxwell]

Hold on, why is Christie leading in NM and NH, but not OH or IA?

NM possibility of Susana Martinez on the ticket, NH because he's the kind of candidate for New Hampshire.

He's not leading in Iowa for the opposite reason as NH, and in Ohio Patrick leads by 1 point, so its not really a big thing.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Why isn't there a libertarian/Tea Party candidate for president? Plus you think the grass roots GOP are going to take another establishment candidate after their record of losing elections? I don't think so. Krispy Kreme Christie had aligned with the wrong faction of the GOP and it will bite him in the backside.

[Niemeyerite]

Patrick should choose Biden for VP

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Patrick should choose Biden for VP

Good pick for the Dems. Though I'd lean for Schweitzer

[badgate]

Tom Cole spoke at my commencement, and if I'm being perfectly honest, I fell asleep for most of it.

He's not an entertaining guy, I'll take it for that.

I was actually surprised he wasn't leading by more. As for the commencement address I just felt like sharing, lol.

[Maxwell]

Patrick should choose Biden for VP

I was thinking about that, and I'm wondering if that's constitutional.

[JerryArkansas]

Patrick should choose Biden for VP

I was thinking about that, and I'm wondering if that's constitutional.

It is.  Only the president is bared from serving more than two terms.