Democratic Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @4pm ET?)

[IceSpear]

I come home from work expecting to see how much Bernie won KS/NE by, and instead they both have 0% in. lol. Caucuses are horrible.

[IceSpear]

10 minute prediction:

TV Networks project Hillary Clinton will win the state of LA tonight.

It would be the biggest political surprise of the last 100 years if they didn't.

There's no exit polls, so they might wait for some results first.

[IceSpear]

CNN numbers coming in for Nebraska, about 55-45 Sanders.

Better than I expected for Hillary. I hope it holds.

[IceSpear]

LA 5% in:

Clinton: 72%
Sanders: 21%

Okay guys, you can call it now.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is at 72% and there's still nothing from Orleans...

[IceSpear]

Arthur County, Nebraska (population 460, one of the least populated counties in the USA) had 3 voters in the Democratic Caucus in 2008. Obama won 2 votes to Hillary's 1.

This time there were 4 voters: Sanders 3 to Hillary's 1. Is there some sort of fracking boom in the area to account for the increase in turnout?

I wonder if Hillary's voter was the same person.

[IceSpear]

Bernie is winning in a county in LA!!!

You mean a parish?

[IceSpear]

I'm surprised Hillary is at 72% with nothing from Shreveport or Orleans in. Could this be Alabama redux?

[IceSpear]

Kansas was an unexpected blow out. He never once led in a poll there, and won by 35 points.

There was literally no polls there, besides one that was clearly junk.

[IceSpear]

Atlas: Bernie Sanders won 2 of 3??? Nope nope should of done better terrible nighttt.

It's understandable that someone that knows so little about the nomination process as you fails understand that this is a race for delegates and not for states.

Math is hard.

[IceSpear]

How did Sanders do so much better in Kansas than in Nebraska? I figured it would have been the other way around if there was any significant difference at all between the two.

Obama did much better in KS than in NE too in 08. As for why, I have no idea.

[IceSpear]

I am happy with 2/3 Wins, Huge victory in Kansas, best since Vermont, 35% Victory, Solid in Nebraska (Maybe could have done 60%, now it has increased to around 56%).

LA is a bit better than expected, increased to 24%, for a while I was very apprehensive of 15% Viability seeing the last few polls (Junk of not).

Undoubtedly Sanders has out-performed overall expectations, other than Hillaryhacks everyone will realise it. Maine will make it 3 out of 4 victories.

But delegate wise a big loss in LA will eat all those 3 victories & Sanders will continue to be 200 odd Delegates, Numbers considered, this does not help - Just maintains the status quo which IMO which continues to make Bernie's case hard rather than close the gap.

It remains a difficult situation & hope MS ends this Southern Nightmare.

Pretty clear Sanders needs to pull shock wins in MI,OH,IL, etc & pull close results in FL,NC, etc. He can't afford a big loss anymore. He has to get 45% odd in every state bar MS to have a realistic chance!

Pretty reasonable analysis.

[IceSpear]

Sanders is running out of states where he needs to run up the margins to eventually catch up.  Tell me, where exactly is his path to the nomination from here? 

He did make a good result tonight but those states have low delegates comparatively, So i see nothing wrong with the result. MS is last Clinton Southern state so after that Clinton will have no state to sweep IMO to make for 2-3 losses (This is assuming she does not sweep FL, NC, etc where she is likely to get a good result).

I think after 15th March, Sanders expects a string of wins, some in decent delegate states to decrease the numbers & have fighting chance going into CA & PA, which is entirely possible.

March 15th could be a decider - If Clinton get  150 odd delegate lead here & she very well could, it realistically is over. Sanders needs to put a good result & make an almost tie overall delegate wise on March 15th! BTW he was always gonna be a long shot

Clinton doesn't need to add another 150 delegates on March 15... all she needs to do is maintain her current lead of about 200. Obama almost never had a lead of more than 100 pledged delegates.

If she maintains it, then Sanders has a genuine shot as the next 10-12 States are very pro-Sanders & he will make up a huge number of delegates there. He will go into CA & PA needing a 60% vote share which is difficult but not impossible. That gives Sanders a REAL GENUINE CREDIBLE CHANCE.

If Clinton can rake up 100-150 more delegate lead in March 15th, it maybe practically over for Sanders!

Sanders would need a miracle to win PA, much less get 60%. The Philly machine is going to go all out for Hillary.

[IceSpear]

It says Lancaster, Nebraska is only 24% in with Sanders leading 68-32. If that margin holds, the final statewide result should look something like Sanders wins 59.6%-40.4%.

I not sure, I am probably wrong, but why does Lancaster have 30 caucus sites, twice as many as Douglas, when Douglas has like twice the population.  I think that all of Nebraska is in, but an error happened showing that Lancaster had 30 precincts instead of just 8.

Nice try, just updated to 10/33 reporting.

Still doesn't answer the question, why the hell does a county half the size of the largest get twice as many caucus sites?

This is a great question actually. The county isn't even particularly large.

[IceSpear]

Bernie wins NE 57-43, and Hillary nets 9 delegates overall. ME will likely make it a wash.