Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who would a runoff favor?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Assuming a low turnout election that probably helps Republicans since suburban white women are the highest turnout demographic.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm conflicted as to whether this feels like VA 2021 (where the momentum was real, but I needed to see a Youngkin victory to believe it) or SC 2020 (where all the hype totally falls flat).

The thing is, outside of this forum, I have not seen any momentum for Presley. It doesn't help we haven't had a non-internal quality poll since early October. Whereas in 2021 you could clearly see the momentum change through October. I think Presley has done enough to guarantee it within single digits though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think once Hinds and any stragglers come in, it basically ends up being the same margin (% and raw votes) as 2019. Another good Democratic performance, just not good enough.

Ultimately, Mississippi is just too Republican of a state for a Democrat to win unless the Republican candidate is unusually awful, and Reeves is not that. I think that will probably change some over the next 10-20 years, though, and I hope the national party sees it as a medium-term goal for a future flip.

2008 - Virginia and Colorado
2020 - Arizona and Georgia
2032? - Mississippi? Kansas?

The problem for Democrats in Mississippi is that the state is considered a sh****** state outside of people born there, or bible thumpers. As a result, no one wants to move there and thus it prevents any oppurtunity of the Jackson area seeing major growth and becoming a significant metro area. Even compared to Alabama and possibly Louisiana the state is considered backwards to the lack of a safe metro for minorities. The truth is neither national party wants to campaign over a state that's uneducated, quite illiterate, poor, and unemployed. That's why there is somewhat of informal agreement to just let polarization do its job.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What is the final margin expected to be?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

FINAL MARGIN

Tate Reeves wins by 3.2% or 50.9-47.7

KY Beshear+4.5
MS Reeves+3
VA House TIE
VA Senate Dem Hold
OH Issue 1 Yes+9

Looks like I nailed the governor races this year.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Do we know what % of the white vote Presley got?

Mid 20s

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1727440745312006533?t=5kf3vEZEkWhqB00OXOoV...