Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

I think most of this would be a straight out bad idea for similar reasons to why Russian invading ukraine was a bad idea, but even more so (vague casus beli, hostile populace, invading nations with little experience about wars of conquest, flying in the face of international law) which is why it won't ever happen, but the one exception is Georgia. If Russian troops are indeed flying out of the puppet states to back up Ukraine, what is really stopping the Georgian government just waltzing in, like when Italy simply walked into Rome when Napoleon III's Papal Protection Guard were recalled for other purposes?

I mean, they won't (most Georgians, even though they have little sympathy for russia and want their country united, do not really want war, especially to be the aggressive party) but perhaps in the longterm this means Abkhazia could edge closer to Tbilisi if Moscow is a less reliable backer. The current government in Georgia has a lot of prewar Zelensky vibes, so who knows how the actual population would react

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This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

I think most of this would be a straight out bad idea for similar reasons to why Russian invading ukraine was a bad idea, but even more so (vague casus beli, hostile populace, invading nations with little experience about wars of conquest, flying in the face of international law) which is why it won't ever happen, but the one exception is Georgia. If Russian troops are indeed flying out of the puppet states to back up Ukraine, what is really stopping the Georgian government just waltzing in, like when Italy simply walked into Rome when Napoleon III's Papal Protection Guard were recalled for other purposes?

I mean, they won't (most Georgians, even though they have little sympathy for russia and want their country united, do not really want war, especially to be the aggressive party) but perhaps in the longterm this means Abkhazia could edge closer to Tbilisi if Moscow is a less reliable backer. The current government in Georgia has a lot of prewar Zelensky vibes, so who knows how the actual population would react

I've been thinking to myself for a while that this might be an opportunity for smaller nations to "resolve" a few frozen conflicts. AFAIK, Azerbaijan, well-armed and flush with enthusiasm from recent victories, appears the only one with such an appetite--a development I view negatively.

Yeah, that could happen (if i was Armenia i would be desperately seeking a better patron, and they do seem to be playing both sides in the UN General assembly/European Council). The other question is the moribund Syria conflict where Turkey and its proxies could start testing the waters more while Russia is distracted.

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file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063%20(1).pdf

Thanks for this link, very useful

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Mariupol:

How did they rebuild so quickly?

Just reviving what Potemkin supposedly did in the vicinity.

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https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Is this not just Pilsudski's intermarium?

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Simplest and most likely answer is structural failure. The dam has been neglected for almost a year and was damaged in fighting. Do you think dams can last forever without maintenance?

Dams are some of the strongest structures made by man. Without maintenance, it's estimated that the Hoover Dam would stand for hundreds of years. Even the generators could run unattended for years.

Depends on the dam in question to be fair: infamously Mosul Dam is a complete disaster of a construction that requires near constant renovation/fresh concrete to prevent its collapse.

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Talking of Chechens, Kadyrov, has - obviously - declared for Putin and will send troops in defence.