FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[2016]

We already know Demings won't win unless it's a blue wave, and as long as Biden Approvals are mediocre, but it's not impossible, DeSantis came back during debated from six pts down against Gillium

Otherwise it's a 304 map and I haven't even seen Demings that much

You Govv has it 45/50% Approvals, I doubt that due to our leads in Cali and VA, if Biden winds up at 50/45 it's a 304 map, like Last time, but if it's more than that we have a chance

Biden will have Obama 2010 & 2014 JA Numbers next year on E-DAY!

[2016]

Florida is becoming a RED STATE soon!!!

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2021/09/20/more-bad-news-for-florida-democrats-494394

WOW, Unbelievable, Remarkable!!!

Republicans erased a 700,000+ Democratic Registration Advantage during the Obama Years to almost nil. It currently stands at 23,000+.

Insane effort by the Republican Party of Florida!

[2016]

Reports say Pinellas County has flipped its Party Registration from BLUE to Red!

If that's true it is CHEKMATE for Democrats. If they even can't hold Pinellas it's GLOOMY for them because Pinellas is the Swing County in the State.

[2016]

Reports say Pinellas County has flipped its Party Registration from BLUE to Red!

If that's true it is CHEKMATE for Democrats. If they even can't hold Pinellas it's GLOOMY for them because Pinellas is the Swing County in the State.

I believe 2020 was a D+1 with 13% margin of victory among Independents for Biden, according to the CNN exit poll.  So 2022 could easily be R+3 with the GOP having at least a decisive lead among Independents of 10-15 percent.  Reports from Cuban, South American, Jewish and Asians communities presents a very dark picture for Democrats in the State, and there's no way he's going to do well in Jacksonville and Tampa suburbs.  The additional problem of hundreds of thousands of new Republican transplants into the state has provided the GOP with an extra 250k voters in the past couple years, and another 75-125k is likely to enter the state this year.  There's hundreds of new people in and around my community with Trump banners in their garages, homes, and apartments.  

Thus, Florida is completely gone for Democrats in 2022 and 2024.  

CNN FL 2020 Exit Poll
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/florida
It actually was D 30/I 32/ R 38
BUT you were right, Biden did beat Trump among Independents in FL 54/43.

I think FL doing so well has a lot to do with Governor DeSantis keeping the State open despite the COVID-19 Pandemic. People were and still are fed up with all the Restrictions, Vaccine Mandates, etc.

It was a little bit of a Gamble by DeSantis but it worked.

[2016]

Reports say Pinellas County has flipped its Party Registration from BLUE to Red!

If that's true it is CHEKMATE for Democrats. If they even can't hold Pinellas it's GLOOMY for them because Pinellas is the Swing County in the State.

I believe 2020 was a D+1 with 13% margin of victory among Independents for Biden, according to the CNN exit poll.  So 2022 could easily be R+3 with the GOP having at least a decisive lead among Independents of 10-15 percent.  Reports from Cuban, South American, Jewish and Asians communities presents a very dark picture for Democrats in the State, and there's no way he's going to do well in Jacksonville and Tampa suburbs.  The additional problem of hundreds of thousands of new Republican transplants into the state has provided the GOP with an extra 250k voters in the past couple years, and another 75-125k is likely to enter the state this year.  There's hundreds of new people in and around my community with Trump banners in their garages, homes, and apartments.  

Thus, Florida is completely gone for Democrats in 2022 and 2024.  

CNN FL 2020 Exit Poll
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/florida
It actually was D 30/I 32/ R 38
BUT you were right, Biden did beat Trump among Independents in FL 54/43.

I think FL doing so well has a lot to do with Governor DeSantis keeping the State open despite the COVID-19 Pandemic. People were and still are fed up with all the Restrictions, Vaccine Mandates, etc.

It was a little bit of a Gamble by DeSantis but it worked.

Cause there's a lot of D voters that left the state after attending college, and many voters responded to exit pollsters to claim they are Rs despite their registrations indicating D and I.  In 2020, I was registered D cause I wanted to vote in the primary, and I had been registered Independent when I moved to Florida as well as when I lived in NJ.  This happens to tons of college kids who register with Democrats on campus.  But I was certainly a Republican after I left undergraduate school. 

It wasn't a gamble for DeSantis.  Old people with a 1.5% chance of dying in 2020 knew to either vaccinate or continue social distancing, and younger groups had a nonzero chance.  With vaccines, continued social distancing of old unvaccinated persons, and monoclonal antibodies, the chances of dying dropped significantly.  The real drop in Florida came when unvaccinated and vaccinated persons learned that monoclonal antibodies had been incredibly successful for unvaccinated people that had conditions contraindicating vaccination.  Because of unvaxxed movement, biologic companies have now created a multitude of remedies that's 85% effective, and fights off a host of other viruses and illnesses like cancer and cardiovascular disease.  They are closer to a cure that's safer, more effective and cheaper than taking a multitude of vaccines for a bunch of viral infections (treats influenza).  Thank God.  I've literally worked on dozens of drug cases with biologics. Monoclonal Antibodies has paved a pathway to cheaply cure, remedy or prevent transmission of, HIV and all other STDS, cancer, Ebola, asthma, allergies, heart disease, etc.  It is opening up more natural means for preventing illness. It will literally leave people with long-term natural immunity. Even Europe has started to adopt it cause they realize they can't keep giving people several vaccinations each year, because it's not a true solution to the problem as they are witnessing right now  at the start of a brutal winter (70K case, 321 dead today).  The same will happen to the Midwest and NE over the next several months.  Florida is pretty much finished with significant outbreaks of Covid-19, because it peaked at the best time of the year (summer). 

The states that are relying solely on vaccinations are going to suffer the most this winter, because they don't understand the science.  Because they don't realize that millions and billions of dollars are being pumped into political parties and media by legacy pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Merck in order to push one drug over another one.  It's an awful situation that has provided us with the Opioid and Adderral crises, as well as blocked HIV and cancer drugs from quickly entering the market.   Extremist Covid-19  policy has shot the Democrat Party in the foot, if not a vital organ, because they did not understand the risks associated with vaccinating everyone and shutting down the economy.  The deaths that come from homicide, suicide, overdoses, war, famine, etc., that is associated with their plan.  Recent polls show them losing on Covid-19 policy. 

If DeSantis & Rubio do get a High Single Digit/Low Double Digit Win next November Democrats almost certainly going to lose two House Districts with FL-7 and FL-13.

[2016]

FL is an R 3 state if nothing else Rubio and DeSantis will win by 3pts it's not a D yr it's a Neutral Environment

LOL, are you kidding us? There is nothing that suggest it will be a Neutral Environment.
Rubio beat Murphy by 8 Points in 2016 and Demings is well to the left of Murphy + if current Trends continue Republicans will have a 130-150K Registration Advantage by September 2022.

[2016]

Why is Rubio doubling down on this? Saying that same-sex marriage is a 'fake problem'? Also, pretty sure most people would agree that marriage equality is a bigger day to day issue than... flight cancellations.

all of this in FL no less

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1551348128191758336

Look at the Polls in FL. Abortion & Same-Sex Marriage are at the bottom of every FL Poll thus far. This Midterm Election will be decided on the Inflation, Gas Prices and the Economy.

Just like Abortion Same-Sex Marriage is yet another Issue Democrats think of an Silver Bullet that wins them the Election.

[2016]

Demings raised $12.2M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546841985067122688

All that money is being misspent and will ultimately be proven to be a waste. It's like the millions poured into unwindable races in 2020 (such as KY and SC). Democratic donors should know better and spend their bucks wisely, in races where it actually makes a difference (perhaps ALL the difference) - PA, GA, AZ, NV. Absolutely NOT in a, let's face it, rightward-trending state, against a guy who won last time by 7 points and outran Trump by 6 point. I don't care if Rubio voted against SSM or is running a poor campaign, because neither do Florida voters. HE WILL WIN IN 2020 REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY DEMINGS AND FOOLISH DEMOCRATIC DONORS BLOW ON THIS RACE. The same can't be said of Walker or Masters or Oz, so the money should really be going to people in stronger positions like Warnock and Kelly and Fetterman and CCM.

Not sure why people always assume it's an 'either or'. Anyone who is donating to Demings from out of state is likely donating to those candidates too.

Yeah, but why waste even a buck on a race we're going to lose? Better to spend those resources where they'll be much better spent - PA, or GA, or AZ, or NV. All those spare dimes people are throwing into FL are clearly adding up if donors have cumulatively poured over $12 million into this race. These funds should have been allocated better - in the actually competitive races. And I'm fine with this money being wasted in FL if, and only if, FL goes blue, or if PA/GA/AZ/NV all go blue. But if any of PA/GA/AZ/NV very narrowly (as in less than a point) go Republican, and FL goes red too despite the amount of money spent there, then my point will have been proven: that the money was spent very stupidly and had it been better spent Democrats could have been in a better position in the Senate.

If Florida goes Blue so would Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania & North Carolina and most likely Georgia, Arizona, Nevada as well. Democrats would have a 55-45 Senate. It would be a D-Wave in Biden Midterm Year. I'd say this Scenario is very unlikely.

[2016]

bagelman,
You are complete bonkers. Rubio always said that he supports Excemptions for Abortions while Extremist Val Demings supports Abortions until just before birth.
Floridas Abortion Ban is in line with most European Countries like France and Germany.

Demings, like the other Extremist Democrats, is running a single issue Campaign on abortion because she has nothing else to run on. She truly voted 100 % with the Pelosi/Schumer/Biden/Harris Agenda since Biden was inaugurated and voted 100 % with Democrats even before Biden became President..
You can do that if you are running for Orlando Police Chief or in a D+30 PVI Seat but not Statewide in a big State like Florida with a much more diverse Electorate.

Not having a real Primary Opponent like Demings, Beasley and Barnes had and therefore not being properly vetted by the Voters will hurt all 3 Candidates and we are seeing that now with Barnes and Demings.

Finally there are a lot more issues on the ballot in Florida then just abortion and Rubio is leading on all those such as Inflation, Crime, the Border, etc.

I do think Rubio probably would have lost in 2018 so he is a little bit lucky his Seat wasn't up for Reelection back then. But now with a neutral to tilt R Environment + a 287K Registration Edge by Republicans it has become near impossible for someone like Demings to win. Her ceiling is about 45-47 % and that's what she will be getting in November. It's now Rubios Race to lose.

[2016]

Two fantastic Ads by Rubio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRV8Ki_wcFg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9ifMJLZFaw

Marco just loves kiddos

And generally speaking Rubio has one of the hottest Wifes in the entire Congress

[2016]

Very big Deal: COOK moves FL SEN from Lean R to Likely R.

[2016]

Very big Deal: COOK moves FL SEN from Lean R to Likely R.

I always thought Lean was a bit of a stretch here.

Rubio ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED Val Demings tonight. He said he is not ashamned calling them crazy, socialist, etc. He drew a lot of laughter, applause and was very funny too. Demings looked heresy, raspy IMO.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1582521103477788672

I actually watched a clip of that particular exchange. Demings, whether you agree with her or not, is clearly passionate and genuine about her beliefs.

Demings is a RADICAL. The 15-Week Abortion Ban is "normal" in many of Countries of the world except of course in the United States. Germany, France, you name it have all Abortion Restrictions.

Demings came over as too angry.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1582521103477788672

I actually watched a clip of that particular exchange. Demings, whether you agree with her or not, is clearly passionate and genuine about her beliefs.

Demings is a RADICAL. The 15-Week Abortion Ban is "normal" in many of Countries of the world except of course in the United States. Germany, France, you name it have all Abortion Restrictions.

Demings came over as too angry.

This talking point is so strange to me. Just because other countries insist on restricting women's right to choose doesn't mean America should. If you're anti-choice on bullsh*it religious grounds, just say so, don't hide behind the restrictive nonsense of other countries.

You don't understand. Demings supports no Restrictions at all. She wants Abortion right up until birth. That is unfortunately the view the vast Majority of the Democratic Party holds now. That is radical and dangerous killing innocent babies.

[2016]

It's not just Abortion. She holds basically the same view as Beto O'Rourke when it comes to gun rights. She wants to ban the 2nd Amendment, would support a national assault weapons ban. Bottom Line: She wants to take our guns away. She wants amnesty for everyone that came into this Country illegally. She proudly supported Obamas Executive Order on Immigration after the 2014 Midterms.
She voted for the 1.9 Trillion Rescue Package which is unfortunately the big reason everyone is suffering from record high Bidenflation. She voted 100 % with Biden since he took Office. Really, Democrats have no Record to run on.
Like they always do when Democrats backed into a corner and have no Accomplishments they turn to personal attacks.

[2016]

I will say that this attack by Demings against Rubio, over the gun violence issue, stood out to me:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1582519070867722240

This and the abortion clip are the moments that led for me to say that Demings is very passionate about the issues that she believes in. I will also say that this particular moment reminded of when Cameron Kasky savaged Rubio at that CNN townhall back in 2018, in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting. That particular townhall was a disaster for Rubio, who was absolutely savaged by the Parkland students, parents, and teachers (along with Dana Loesch). Of course, they were also very friendly and receptive to Bill Nelson, Ted Deutch, and now disgraced ex Broward County Sheriff Steve Israel, with whom they aligned. Rubio did much better against Demings than he did against Kasky and the others at the townhall, but that wasn't difficult to do.

The overwhelming Majority of Florida Voters though are citing Inflation/Cost of Living/Gas Prices as Issues.
So, while passionate (I grant you that) Demings picked the wrong issues. She ain't going to change overall mood from FL Voters.
Rubio consistently tied her to Biden and Biden is a big liability for Demings since he only has a 41 % JA in FL.

[2016]

I will say that this attack by Demings against Rubio, over the gun violence issue, stood out to me:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1582519070867722240

This and the abortion clip are the moments that led for me to say that Demings is very passionate about the issues that she believes in. I will also say that this particular moment reminded of when Cameron Kasky savaged Rubio at that CNN townhall back in 2018, in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting. That particular townhall was a disaster for Rubio, who was absolutely savaged by the Parkland students, parents, and teachers (along with Dana Loesch). Of course, they were also very friendly and receptive to Bill Nelson, Ted Deutch, and now disgraced ex Broward County Sheriff Steve Israel, with whom they aligned. Rubio did much better against Demings than he did against Kasky and the others at the townhall, but that wasn't difficult to do.

The overwhelming Majority of Florida Voters though are citing Inflation/Cost of Living/Gas Prices as Issues.
So, while passionate (I grant you that) Demings picked the wrong issues. She ain't going to change overall mood from FL Voters.
Rubio consistently tied her to Biden and Biden is a big liability for Demings since he only has a 41 % JA in FL.

I certainly agree that the economy is a more important issue than abortion or gun control, and there was another moment in the debate where Demings asked why Rubio kept on talking about a "barrel of oil", or something to that effect.

Demings would never admit it BUT I am telling you: The reason the Nation has this record high inflation is the 1.9 Trillon $ Spending Rescue Package that passed Congress in early 2021. She voted for it just sayin.

[2016]

If this was even the FL of 2016 or 2018, Demings would have a real shot IMO.

2018 I definitely agree with. She's running a much better campaign than Bill Nelson.

I agree, Demings probably would have won in 2018.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/JavonAPrice/status/1583432189265338368

Man do liberals hate Florida.

They hate Florida because they can't understand why a state with such a large and diverse population is not Safe D. But Joy Reid is probably the most partisan host on MSNBC, and has a tendency of saying outrageous things. She's also someone who's been accused of homophobia in the past, if I'm not mistaken.

Joy Reid needs to just stop and mind her own business and not attack FL.

DeSantis has done one helluva Job getting FL through this devastating Hurricane. Rubio helped as well.

[2016]

In retrospect Democrats choose the wrong Candidate in Val Demings.

They pushed out Moderate Stephanie Murphy for Val Demings because Demings was apparently a better Fundraiser. How DUMB can you be at the Democratic Party Establishment! Insane.

Demings thought she can buy herself a Senate Seat with all the money she raised. Nope Val. You havr lost.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1588119290850549760

Marco Rubios Closing Campaign Ad

I have to say both, DeSantis & Rubio have fantastic Web Teams! Everyone should take a Page out of it.

[2016]

TODAY FOUR YEARS AGO FOLKS

[2016]

TODAY FOUR YEARS AGO FOLKS

So you're saying we can't trust the polls and there's still a chance of an upset?

Florida is a State where you can extrapolate A LOT from the Early Vote. Almost 4.5M People voted early. Rubio will still win by about 5-7 Points while DeSantis wins by 9-11.