The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

June 10 results:

Arkansas

Maine

Nevada

North Dakota

South Carolina

Virginia

Looks like the only "interesting" thing next week is who wins NV-Gov. on the DEM side and the SC races.

Huh?  What SC race is it you find riveting?  The GOP Lt. Gov primary?  The Supt. of Education primaries?  What could well be the last election held to select an Adjutant General by votes if the amendment passes in November?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.thestate.com/2014/06/06/3493062/sc-politics-26000-absentee-ballots.html#wgt=rcntnews

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Assuming the ratios of absentee to non-absentee voters are roughly the same for both parties and will be the same for both 2010 and 2014, then a comparison of 2010 absentee ballot requests to 2014 suggests that the Republican vote will be approximately 330,000 and the Democratic vote will be approximately 195,000.  If one assumes that the two parties are not similar in their proportion of absentee voters, and that vote share in the two primaries and overall use of absentee ballots are similar for 2010 and 2014, then you get an estimate of 160,000 Democratic voters and 365,000 Republican voters.  Note that because in many case, the Republican primary is the actual election, you do get a fair number of independents such as myself voting in the Republican primary which amplifies primary numbers for them well beyond their actual share in November. If we had closed primaries and party registration, Graham would definitely be facing a runoff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

There's a State Senator in the race who shouldn't be an awful candidate.

I don't see State Sen. Brad Hutto being competitive against State Sen. Lee Bright, who is the most likely to defeat Graham, but if Graham is defeated by Businessman Richard Cash or Businesswoman Nancy Mace, and they make several big gaffes, Hutto runs a great campaign, and 2014 turns out to be a bad republican year (i.e. one where the republicans only pick up 1-2 seats in the senate), then perhaps Mr. Hutto can pull off a narrow victory. But it's very, very doubtful - Mr. Hutto is nowhere near the caliber of Mr. Childers in MS as far as being an electable candidate goes, and Childers isn't great in that category at all as it is (mainly because he's running in MS).

Bright is a neo-confederate too. If anything he's the one most likely to make a gaffe.

Either way it's better than having a brazen hypocrite in the Senate who pretends to care about four Americans dying to score points for his party.

Hutto got into the race primarily to ensure DINO Jay Stamper didn't get the nomination by default.  I don't expect Graham to be in danger of a runoff.  The only two races where I'm not fairly certain of how they will go tomorrow in the Republican primary are those for Lt. Gov. and Treasurer.  Of the other six races, I only expect two of those who I will be voting for to win, the two incumbents on my ballot.

I like Elizabeth Moffly, but I expect that the GOP runoff in the Superintendent of Education race will be between Sally Atwater (widow of Lee Atwater) and Molly Spearman (who should be sued by Wrigley for using their Spearmint gum logo in her campaign signs) with an outside chance Sheri Few makes the runoff, but Few has no chance of winning the runoff, so the real race is between Atwater and Spearman.

In the Lt. Gov race, any of the four could make it to the runoff, but if Ray Moore makes it to the runoff I think he will lose, so it's really a three man race.

In the Treasurer race, I think Loftis has a good shot at reelection, but it isn't a lock.

The incumbents in the other five races I'll be voting in (as well as in the rest of the U.S. House delegation) are locks to win both renomination and reelection.

I also fully expect massive majorities for Yes in the two advisory questions in the Republican primary:

Republican Question 1
Should Article I, Section 3 of the South Carolina Constitution be amended to include the following language?
The privileges and immunities of citizens of South Carolina and the United States shall not be abridged, so that no person shall be deprived of life without due process of law, nor shall any person be denied the equal protection of the laws. These rights shall extend to both born and pre-born persons beginning at conception.

Republican Question 2
Should South Carolina Law be amended to replace the state income tax imposed on individuals, estates, trusts, and others by reducing the rate of taxation by 1.4 percent each year until the state income tax rate for all brackets is zero percent?

The Democrats have three stupid questions of their own in their primary:

Democratic Question 1
Do you believe each state – not Congress – should decide for itself whether to allow online gaming and determine how to regulate online gaming in their state?

Democratic Question 2
The South Carolina Department of Transportation estimates more than $20 billion is required to fix South Carolina’s crumbling roads and bridges. Should gaming laws be modernized to fund the repairs instead of a tax increase?

Democratic Question 3
Should medical marijuana be legalized for use in cases of severe, chronic illnesses when documented by a physician?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It will officially be Haley v. Shaheen in November now, to.

This is South Carolina, not New Hampshire.  It's Sheheen, not Shaheen.  Still remains to see what impact if any, Ervin's run as an Independent Republican will have.

Incidentally, in SC-2 This November won't be the first time Joe Wilson will be facing Phil Black, tho it will be the first time in November as their three previous matches were all in the June primary before Black switched parties for his fourth bite at the apple.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It will officially be Haley v. Shaheen in November now, to.

This is South Carolina, not New Hampshire.  It's Sheheen, not Shaheen.  Still remains to see what impact if any, Ervin's run as an Independent Republican will have.

Whoops. That is a big mistake when one's a total DINO (Sheheen), but with Ervin and a Libertarian in the race, this might be worth watching still throughout the year. And speaking of spoiler candidates, could Ravenel steal enough votes from Graham to give Hutto even the slightest chance?

Remains to be seen if T-Rav can get on the ballot.  Petitions don't have to be filed until 15 July and the State Election commission has until 15 August to decide whether they are valid.  If you think Sheheen is a DINO then clearly you are condemning the Democrats to never win a Statewide office here for the next fifty years,  Hutto has no chance.  He only got into the race to keep Stamper from being the Democratic nominee and thus keep Jay Stamper from being Alvin Greene II.  Having accomplished his mission, I expect Hutto to run a minimalist campaign and let Democratic operatives here concentrate on the Governor and Superintendent races.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

McKinney has withdrawn from the runoff, which under South Carolina law means the runoff os now between McMaster and Campbell.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/06/12/3505188/mckinney-leaves-sc-lieutenant.html

I'm guessing he figured he was unlikely to make up the margin, tho he gave the usual personal reasons for doing so.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So will Mississippi introduce party registration that can't be changed during a runoff period so as to keep Democrats from messing with future Republican primaries?  That seems like an obvious revenge move for the Tea Partiers to push for.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So will Mississippi introduce party registration that can't be changed during a runoff period so as to keep Democrats from messing with future Republican primaries?  That seems like an obvious revenge move for the Tea Partiers to push for.

Considering most MS GOP legislators, and certainly their leadership, backed Cochran, I seriously doubt it.

Do you really think that if the Mississippi Tea Party makes this a litmus test, the establishment Republicans would dare oppose it?  For that matter some Democrats might support it, in hopes of moving the Mississippi GOP to the right so that they could reoccupy the center.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No primaries today?

I voted in a special election primary today for county coroner.  The former occupant of the office was inconsiderate enough to last just long enough before dying that the primary (and the runoff in two weeks, which was pretty much inevitable given there were seven candidates) could not be scheduled to be held at the same time as the regular primaries.  It remains to be seen if we'll have to do this all over again for county sheriff as out long term (41 years in office) sheriff has been indicted and suspended from office for allegedly taking bribes from the owner of a local chain of Mexican restaurants to let some of his employees go when they were arrested and found to be illegally in this country.  We have an interim sheriff appointed by Haley (as called for when a sheriff has been arrested and hauled to jail for a felony) and he's already fired four of Metts' chief deputies and appointed replacements.  (May I say there has been little love lost between Haley and Metts.)  It certainly was ironic to see Metts do a perp walk from the law enforcement center that the county council named after him a few years ago. Oops!