The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Hifly]

IIRC Gooch has conceded though.

Are you sure?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The VA-08 Democratic primary should be interesting.

[Miles]

IIRC Gooch has conceded though.

Are you sure?

This was from yesterday:

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[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.thestate.com/2014/06/06/3493062/sc-politics-26000-absentee-ballots.html#wgt=rcntnews

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Assuming the ratios of absentee to non-absentee voters are roughly the same for both parties and will be the same for both 2010 and 2014, then a comparison of 2010 absentee ballot requests to 2014 suggests that the Republican vote will be approximately 330,000 and the Democratic vote will be approximately 195,000.  If one assumes that the two parties are not similar in their proportion of absentee voters, and that vote share in the two primaries and overall use of absentee ballots are similar for 2010 and 2014, then you get an estimate of 160,000 Democratic voters and 365,000 Republican voters.  Note that because in many case, the Republican primary is the actual election, you do get a fair number of independents such as myself voting in the Republican primary which amplifies primary numbers for them well beyond their actual share in November. If we had closed primaries and party registration, Graham would definitely be facing a runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The main attraction is the SC senate primary - if Graham falls short of 50%, it goes to a runoff, in which he may very well be quite vulnerable. The GOP Lt. Gov. primary is worth your time as well.

ME-2 is worth a glance, as are all of the AR runoffs (Att. Gen. (R), State House District 16 (D), State Senate District 17 (R).)

If you like seeing weak candidates face each other, take a look at NV-Gov (D) , but do note the GE race is Safe R, so the democratic primary is really just a big beauty contest.

ND and VA are boring.

[7,052,770]

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

[RogueBeaver]

Gillespie has been nominated as the Pub candidate in VA-SEN. Awaiting the breathless Politico article on how this will be competitive.

[windjammer]

Gillespie has been nominated as the Pub candidate in VA-SEN. Awaiting the breathless Politico article on how this will be competitive.

"Gillespie has moderate views on immigration and could connect well with the African American and the Latino communities. Ed Gillespie shouldn't be underestimated, especially because he easily raises funds. Mark Warner, despite being a former popular virginia governor, could face a backlash with the growing disapproval of the Obama administration (the recent scandal, with a guy who has a name I don't recall), and the actions that could do Terry Mcauliffe, like expanding Medicaid without the consent of the the VA assembly could hurt Mark Warner as well.Ed Gillespie is definitely a strong candidate and shouldn't be counted out. He supports same sex marriage as well.
That's why we're moving the VA senate race into the Lean Dem column"

[Donerail]

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

There's a State Senator in the race who shouldn't be an awful candidate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

There's a State Senator in the race who shouldn't be an awful candidate.

I don't see State Sen. Brad Hutto being competitive against State Sen. Lee Bright, who is the most likely to defeat Graham, but if Graham is defeated by Businessman Richard Cash or Businesswoman Nancy Mace, and they make several big gaffes, Hutto runs a great campaign, and 2014 turns out to be a bad republican year (i.e. one where the republicans only pick up 1-2 seats in the senate), then perhaps Mr. Hutto can pull off a narrow victory. But it's very, very doubtful - Mr. Hutto is nowhere near the caliber of Mr. Childers in MS as far as being an electable candidate goes, and Childers isn't great in that category at all as it is (mainly because he's running in MS).

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

There's a State Senator in the race who shouldn't be an awful candidate.

I don't see State Sen. Brad Hutto being competitive against State Sen. Lee Bright, who is the most likely to defeat Graham, but if Graham is defeated by Businessman Richard Cash or Businesswoman Nancy Mace, and they make several big gaffes, Hutto runs a great campaign, and 2014 turns out to be a bad republican year (i.e. one where the republicans only pick up 1-2 seats in the senate), then perhaps Mr. Hutto can pull off a narrow victory. But it's very, very doubtful - Mr. Hutto is nowhere near the caliber of Mr. Childers in MS as far as being an electable candidate goes, and Childers isn't great in that category at all as it is (mainly because he's running in MS).

Bright is a neo-confederate too. If anything he's the one most likely to make a gaffe.

Either way it's better than having a brazen hypocrite in the Senate who pretends to care about four Americans dying to score points for his party.

[RogueBeaver]

Gillespie has been nominated as the Pub candidate in VA-SEN. Awaiting the breathless Politico article on how this will be competitive.

"Gillespie has moderate views on immigration and could connect well with the African American and the Latino communities. Ed Gillespie shouldn't be underestimated, especially because he easily raises funds. Mark Warner, despite being a former popular virginia governor, could face a backlash with the growing disapproval of the Obama administration (the recent scandal, with a guy who has a name I don't recall), and the actions that could do Terry Mcauliffe, like expanding Medicaid without the consent of the the VA assembly could hurt Mark Warner as well.Ed Gillespie is definitely a strong candidate and shouldn't be counted out. He supports same sex marriage as well.
That's why we're moving the VA senate race into the Lean Dem column"

Right on schedule.

[windjammer]

Gillespie has been nominated as the Pub candidate in VA-SEN. Awaiting the breathless Politico article on how this will be competitive.

"Gillespie has moderate views on immigration and could connect well with the African American and the Latino communities. Ed Gillespie shouldn't be underestimated, especially because he easily raises funds. Mark Warner, despite being a former popular virginia governor, could face a backlash with the growing disapproval of the Obama administration (the recent scandal, with a guy who has a name I don't recall), and the actions that could do Terry Mcauliffe, like expanding Medicaid without the consent of the the VA assembly could hurt Mark Warner as well.Ed Gillespie is definitely a strong candidate and shouldn't be counted out. He supports same sex marriage as well.
That's why we're moving the VA senate race into the Lean Dem column"

Right on schedule.

Well:
Me:

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The article:

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 Me:

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The article:

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Me:

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The article:

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Me:

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The article:

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Well, I should attack them for copyright violations?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Wait a minute, in what universe do indies oppose medicaid expansion??? Hasn't all polling shown otherwise?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait a minute, in what universe do indies oppose medicaid expansion??? Hasn't all polling shown otherwise?

I think it might refer to Medicaid Expansion pushed through bypassing the legislature, which McAuliffe has mused upon.

[IceSpear]

Gillespie has been nominated as the Pub candidate in VA-SEN. Awaiting the breathless Politico article on how this will be competitive.

"Gillespie has moderate views on immigration and could connect well with the African American and the Latino communities. Ed Gillespie shouldn't be underestimated, especially because he easily raises funds. Mark Warner, despite being a former popular virginia governor, could face a backlash with the growing disapproval of the Obama administration (the recent scandal, with a guy who has a name I don't recall), and the actions that could do Terry Mcauliffe, like expanding Medicaid without the consent of the the VA assembly could hurt Mark Warner as well.Ed Gillespie is definitely a strong candidate and shouldn't be counted out. He supports same sex marriage as well.
That's why we're moving the VA senate race into the Lean Dem column"

Right on schedule.

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Wow, this was the first sentence? Politico has already outperformed my expectations.

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Ugh, never mind. There can't be 60 "deciding votes" for a piece of legislation, and this talking point has already been debunked time and time again. If anyone was the deciding vote it was Ben Nelson, since he was the final holdout.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

There's a State Senator in the race who shouldn't be an awful candidate.

I don't see State Sen. Brad Hutto being competitive against State Sen. Lee Bright, who is the most likely to defeat Graham, but if Graham is defeated by Businessman Richard Cash or Businesswoman Nancy Mace, and they make several big gaffes, Hutto runs a great campaign, and 2014 turns out to be a bad republican year (i.e. one where the republicans only pick up 1-2 seats in the senate), then perhaps Mr. Hutto can pull off a narrow victory. But it's very, very doubtful - Mr. Hutto is nowhere near the caliber of Mr. Childers in MS as far as being an electable candidate goes, and Childers isn't great in that category at all as it is (mainly because he's running in MS).

Bright is a neo-confederate too. If anything he's the one most likely to make a gaffe.

Either way it's better than having a brazen hypocrite in the Senate who pretends to care about four Americans dying to score points for his party.

Hutto got into the race primarily to ensure DINO Jay Stamper didn't get the nomination by default.  I don't expect Graham to be in danger of a runoff.  The only two races where I'm not fairly certain of how they will go tomorrow in the Republican primary are those for Lt. Gov. and Treasurer.  Of the other six races, I only expect two of those who I will be voting for to win, the two incumbents on my ballot.

I like Elizabeth Moffly, but I expect that the GOP runoff in the Superintendent of Education race will be between Sally Atwater (widow of Lee Atwater) and Molly Spearman (who should be sued by Wrigley for using their Spearmint gum logo in her campaign signs) with an outside chance Sheri Few makes the runoff, but Few has no chance of winning the runoff, so the real race is between Atwater and Spearman.

In the Lt. Gov race, any of the four could make it to the runoff, but if Ray Moore makes it to the runoff I think he will lose, so it's really a three man race.

In the Treasurer race, I think Loftis has a good shot at reelection, but it isn't a lock.

The incumbents in the other five races I'll be voting in (as well as in the rest of the U.S. House delegation) are locks to win both renomination and reelection.

I also fully expect massive majorities for Yes in the two advisory questions in the Republican primary:

Republican Question 1
Should Article I, Section 3 of the South Carolina Constitution be amended to include the following language?
The privileges and immunities of citizens of South Carolina and the United States shall not be abridged, so that no person shall be deprived of life without due process of law, nor shall any person be denied the equal protection of the laws. These rights shall extend to both born and pre-born persons beginning at conception.

Republican Question 2
Should South Carolina Law be amended to replace the state income tax imposed on individuals, estates, trusts, and others by reducing the rate of taxation by 1.4 percent each year until the state income tax rate for all brackets is zero percent?

The Democrats have three stupid questions of their own in their primary:

Democratic Question 1
Do you believe each state – not Congress – should decide for itself whether to allow online gaming and determine how to regulate online gaming in their state?

Democratic Question 2
The South Carolina Department of Transportation estimates more than $20 billion is required to fix South Carolina’s crumbling roads and bridges. Should gaming laws be modernized to fund the repairs instead of a tax increase?

Democratic Question 3
Should medical marijuana be legalized for use in cases of severe, chronic illnesses when documented by a physician?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls in South Carolina and Virginia close in 25 minutes. Remember - the first votes in Virginia are, if possible, always from more conservative parts of the state.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5% in in VA-07, Brat ahead of Cantor 66-34 percent

[IceSpear]

5% in in VA-07, Brat ahead of Cantor 66-34 percent

Probably won't hold, but how amazing would it be to see Cantor go down?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5% in in VA-07, Brat ahead of Cantor 66-34 percent

Probably won't hold, but how amazing would it be to see Cantor go down?

Very amazing and truly astonishing.

We're now up to 22%, Brat still ahead 60-40.

1% in VA-08 now, Beyer ahead with 36%, Hope in second with 18%.

Still nothing from SC.

[LeBron]

Brat now leads the House Majority Leader 60-40 with 22% of the vote in (a 3,000 vote lead). I swear if the inevitable happens tonight, we could be looking at a Speaker Kevin McCarthy, but it's still early and Cantor should have a comeback here.

In VA-1, Wittman is easily beating his primary challenger.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

33% in VA-07, Brat lead down to 57-43. Could very well be enough liberal votes left to pull cantor out (most conservative votes always come first in VA), but we'll have to see.

[cinyc]

Brat now leads the House Majority Leader 60-40 with 22% of the vote in (a 3,000 vote lead). I swear if the inevitable happens tonight, we could be looking at a Speaker Kevin McCarthy, but it's still early and Cantor should have a comeback here.

In VA-1, Wittman is easily beating his primary challenger.

Brat's 58-42 lead over Cantor is leading with about half of the vote in, according to Virginia Board of Elections Website.  Brat leads in every county but Culpeper and Spotsylvania, which are only marginally Cantor.

Cantor's goose may be cooked here.

[RogueBeaver]

Wasserman just said he doesn't see how Cantor can make this up, and it would be the biggest House upset he's ever seen. If it holds... Jesus F. Christ.