Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Blackacre]

PBrower: I think your approval/disapproval map should have more shades, because Trump's national approval is below 40. Perhaps something like:

(if disapproval is higher than approval)
30 and below = Red 90
30-35 = Red 70
35-40 = Red 50
40-45 = Red 40
Above 45 = Red 30

(If approval is higher than disapproval)
60 and above = Blue 90
55-60 = Blue 70
50-55 = Blue 50
45-50 = Blue 40
Below 45 = Blue 30

That way the map can be more helpful in showing the full range of approval and disapproval of the President

[Blackacre]

Approval +7? That's pretty generous to Trump considering past occurrences.

In 2004 and 2012, the incumbent President got roughly 51% of the popular vote. Translating that to just the two-party vote, Obama got 52% in 2012 while Bush got around 51.5% in 2004.

In late october 2004, Bush's approval was 48%. In late october 2012, Obama's was 50-52%. Compare that with election day results, and Bush got around +3 from his approvals while Obama got jack squat. Thus we should take these approvals at face value for 2020 instead of giving Trump a bonus that previous Presidents running for re-election did not enjoy.

[Blackacre]

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Fixed the maps so they look a little better. If we don't have any specific data for the individual districts, we shouldn't be showing them in grey. The disapproval map, I set the year to 1984 so ME and NE can have their disapproval numbers as electoral votes.

Also, wow yeah that map is a lot sadder than the previous one.

[Blackacre]

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Fixed the maps so they look a little better. If we don't have any specific data for the individual districts, we shouldn't be showing them in grey. The disapproval map, I set the year to 1984 so ME and NE can have their disapproval numbers as electoral votes.

Also, wow yeah that map is a lot sadder than the previous one.

The single districts might be shown some time in polls of Maine and Nebraska -- not that those states generally decide an election. But ME-02 went for Trump (unlike the other three electoral votes of Maine) in 2016, and NE-02 went for Obama in 2008 (unlike the other four electoral votes for Nebraska that year.

To be sure it is hard to imagine how ME-02 goes Republican except in an overall Republican win or how NE-02 goes Democratic except in a Democratic blowout. Maybe I can set the year to 1984 until I see any polls of individual districts in Maine or Nebraska. Both states, let alone their individual districts, get polled rarely. 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Until we get an individual poll of ME-01, ME-02, or NE-02, (NE-01 and NE-03 probably aren't going to give us any surprises) it's better to set the year to 1984.

[Blackacre]

hey PBrower, do you still have that map of trump's approval by state?

[Blackacre]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/12/14/iowa-poll-60-percent-iowans-disapprove-donald-trumps-job-performance/945229001/

Iowa

Approval: 35
Disapproval: 60

[Blackacre]

Gallup, 12/18

Approve 36 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Tax Reform bump starting.

Honestly Im not sure whether you're good at trolling or bad at it. Either way, daily fluctuations dont mean anything

[Blackacre]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

[Blackacre]

Even if there was a tax reform bump, (which doesnt look like it's the case) the nature of a bump is that it wears off. If the bump is happening now, it won't be anything but a distant memory by November.

[Blackacre]

So the uptick is wearing off, which makes me even more confused because I still have no idea what caused it or what killed it.

[Blackacre]

So the uptick is wearing off, which makes me even more confused because I still have no idea what caused it or what killed it.

I don't know if you know this but... there was a Government shutdown. Maybe THAT'S why.

The uptick ended before the shutdown, though, and that doesnt explain what caused the uptick.

Who knows, though. If the current slide is because of the shutdown, we should see another uptick within a couple days because shutdowns fade from memory easily. If Trump's approval continues to slide or even holds steady, we know it's something else.

[Blackacre]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

Then why would they release the terrible October poll?

Maybe they thought it was an outlier, that next month he will rebound like he did many times by then.

I think you're seeing a conspiracy where none exists.

Yeah. Fox is a respectable pollster. Let's not assume any foul play