Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056

Approve: 45
Disapprove: 53

WOW!!!! Incredible surge!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Fox News Poll:

Approve - 45%(+7)
Disprove - 53%(-4)

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056


Should be noted, their last poll was in October.

It should also be noted that it's Fox News.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News Poll:

Approve - 45%(+7)
Disprove - 53%(-4)

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056


Should be noted, their last poll was in October.

It should also be noted that it's Fox News.

Fox news polls are usually decent quality so I dont think it should be written off.

[LimoLiberal]

Fox News Poll:

Approve - 45%(+7)
Disprove - 53%(-4)

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056


Should be noted, their last poll was in October.

It should also be noted that it's Fox News.

Fox News showed Doug Jones leading by 10 points in December. They are not biased. Your bias is showing in discounting President Trump's massive surge in approval.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News Poll:

Approve - 45%(+7)
Disprove - 53%(-4)

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056


Should be noted, their last poll was in October.

It should also be noted that it's Fox News.

Fox News showed Doug Jones leading by 10 points in December. They are not biased. Your bias is showing in discounting President Trump's massive surge in approval.

His average really hasn't improved. He'll go past 40% in the RCP average again and the top line from Quinnipiac(that didn't get released today oddly) will drive it right back into the 30% range again.

[LimoLiberal]

Fox News Poll:

Approve - 45%(+7)
Disprove - 53%(-4)

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056


Should be noted, their last poll was in October.

It should also be noted that it's Fox News.

Fox News showed Doug Jones leading by 10 points in December. They are not biased. Your bias is showing in discounting President Trump's massive surge in approval.

His average really hasn't improved. He'll go past 40% in the RCP average again and the top line from Quinnipiac(that didn't get released today oddly) will drive it right back into the 30% range again.

I'm kind of being a d*ck right now... that Fox poll is the best for Trump of the 20 most recent polls in the fivethirtyeight database and the trend shows his approval going down. So it's almost certainly an outlier.

Also, Fox has had some truly ridiculous swings.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News Poll:

Approve - 45%(+7)
Disprove - 53%(-4)

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/956301177850925056


Should be noted, their last poll was in October.

It should also be noted that it's Fox News.

Fox News showed Doug Jones leading by 10 points in December. They are not biased. Your bias is showing in discounting President Trump's massive surge in approval.

His average really hasn't improved. He'll go past 40% in the RCP average again and the top line from Quinnipiac(that didn't get released today oddly) will drive it right back into the 30% range again.

I'm kind of being a d*ck right now... that Fox poll is the best for Trump of the 20 most recent polls in the fivethirtyeight database and the trend shows his approval going down. So it's almost certainly an outlier.

Also, Fox has had some truly ridiculous swings.

Stop doing that please.

[Gass3268]

The Fox Poll has always had wild swings, but it's a good legit poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Of course it's Faux

[Hindsight was 2020]

Shows you how low Trump's bar is that 44/53 is one of his better polls

[adrac]

Even if the Fox poll is a little bit of an outlier, people on this site should know better than to accuse Fox polling of bias at this point.

[Pericles]

538 has Trump at 39.2%.

[Virginiá]

Of course it's Faux

This is far worse and hackish than anything I've posted in the last week.

Why are you spending so much time screwing with people anyway? I mean, there is nothing wrong with doing this as a short-term "bit" I suppose - people do this regularly around here. But the key point is they stop, and usually pretty quickly. Contrast to you, whose entire existence on this forum has been defined by trolling Democrats and liberals.

I almost want to say, "what, are you in high school?", but we actually have a number of high school kids here who are way more mature than you.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

Then why would they release the terrible October poll?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

Then why would they release the terrible October poll?

Maybe they thought it was an outlier, that next month he will rebound like he did many times by then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

Then why would they release the terrible October poll?

Maybe they thought it was an outlier, that next month he will rebound like he did many times by then.

I think you're seeing a conspiracy where none exists.

[Blackacre]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

Then why would they release the terrible October poll?

Maybe they thought it was an outlier, that next month he will rebound like he did many times by then.

I think you're seeing a conspiracy where none exists.

Yeah. Fox is a respectable pollster. Let's not assume any foul play

[LimoLiberal]

WOW! Massive rebound for Trump in another poll!

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll

Approve: 59 (+5)
Disapprove: 38 (-2)

last poll was in August '17

They've done five polls since inauguration, and this is his highest approval since February 2017.

R wave incoming.

https://soonerpoll.com/trump-favorability-rebounds-very-favorable-grows/?utm_content=bufferd4750&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[pbrower2a]

Texas, PPP

Approve: 45
Disapprove: 48

An absolute must-win for any Republican nominee. This state hasn't gone for a Democratic nominee since Carter in 1976. If the Democratic nominee should win Texas, then he or she is at at least 400 electoral votes.


http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TexasResults.pdf …

Sorry, I cannot use it. First, it is a favorability poll, and I am not using those anymore. Second, it is for an advocacy group. It would be nice to see a poll from Texas Tribune again.

...But I can use this one:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oklahoma is likely to be the President's best state in 2020 should he run for re-election. But it is still 8% down in my projection from the usual 70-30 win for a Republican nominee.


Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.    

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.  
 
  

Twenty-four states with recent polls... now nearly half (48%) of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see.

The 2020  election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.

Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...

it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.  

*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.

[BlueSwan]

Even if the Fox poll is a little bit of an outlier, people on this site should know better than to accuse Fox polling of bias at this point.

Yeah, this has been established a long time ago. Foxnews is heavily biased reporting, but unbiased polling.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has anyone wondered why Fox News hadn't released a poll since October, which coincidentally was their worst month for Trump?
Someone suspicious like me might think that the numbers in November and December weren't very good, and that's why they were never released. But now in January they finally found an acceptable sample, and voila!

Then why would they release the terrible October poll?

Maybe they thought it was an outlier, that next month he will rebound like he did many times by then.

I think you're seeing a conspiracy where none exists.

It's not a conspiracy anymore than when a campaign doesn't release its internal polls when the results are unfavorable. Fox News has an audience to cater to and telling them constantly that Trump is uniquely unpopular is bad for business.  

[LimoLiberal]

Wow! Rasmussen 1/25

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 54 (-1)

The surge continues!

[Gass3268]

Rasmussen 1/25

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 54 (-1)

Quoting without commentary so people don't have to read Limo's trash.

[Gass3268]

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll

Approve: 59 (+5)
Disapprove: 38 (-2)

last poll was in August '17

https://soonerpoll.com/trump-favorability-rebounds-very-favorable-grows/?utm_content=bufferd4750&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer