Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

https://www.zakzak.co.jp/article/20240410-YH4OTWBRNBMBLKYCVZ4SMTNWRY/

There is some media coverage of accusations from former aides that Tokyo Governor Koike has faked her academic credentials from the American University in Cairo where she became fluent in Arabic.

So far these coverages are on the margins but could pick up steam. 

It sort of feels like something her enemies in the LDP are putting out to ensure she does not become a threat to certain key LDP leaders in the upcoming LDP Prez election in Sept 2024.

[jaichind]

https://smart-flash.jp/sociopolitics/281491/1/1/

Has 3 surveys done by LDP KP and JRP on Tokyo 15th by-election

They all have CDP ahead even with polls that include the JCP candidate that has since dropped out.

LDP survey
CDP                                 18
JRP                                  15
pro-TPFA                          11
ex-CDP Upper House MP     9
DIY                                   5
Disgraced ex-LDP MP          3
CPJ                                   2


JRP survey (this must be old since it includes JCP candidate)
CDP                               15.6
JRP                                10.2
CPJ                                  9.2
JCP                                  7.8
pro-TPFA                          7.5
ex-CDP Upper House MP    4.0
Disgraced ex-LDP MP         3.5
DIY                                  2.2

KP survey (also old survey since it includes JCP)
CDP                                 13
pro-TPFA                          10
ex-CDP Upper House MP    10
JRP                                    9
JCP                                    5
CPJ                                    2

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/261c69024386d45084c83b9256e5cb9136d5b54b

For Tokyo 15h by-election LDP and the pro-TPFA are in a game of chicken.  Pro-TPFA independent knows he must have LDP support to have a chance of winning and the LDP knows getting the Pro-TPFA independent to win would rescue the LDP from the fate of losing all 3 Lower House by-elections but neither side wants to make the first move.

[jaichind]

JPY continues to fall as Fed rate cuts are pushed further back with no signs that BOJ will raise rates.  Of course, BOJ cannot raise rates without creating a fiscal crisis in Japan.  So the only way out is a weakening of the JPY despite Japan having a current account surplus

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/5ac6e998f43f3d957f861229556392c8c4112964

Pro-TPFA independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) gets heckled while campaigning with Tokyo Governor Koike for the Tokyo 15th by-election for being involved in "5-way sex affairs/acts"

[jaichind]

It seems 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) had joined TPFA a couple of days ago and was made the Deputy Leader of TPFA.  The leader of TPFA is a Tokyo Prefecture TPFA MLA.  All other office holders of TPFA are Tokyo Prefecture MLA.

[Logical]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/5ac6e998f43f3d957f861229556392c8c4112964

Pro-TPFA independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) gets heckled while campaigning with Tokyo Governor Koike for the Tokyo 15th by-election for being involved in "5-way sex affairs/acts"

They hate him because they can't be him.

[jaichind]

Slight improvement in Kishida approval/disapproval average numbers

[jaichind]

Latest PR polling average




Mostly a shift toward LDP and CDP from the smaller parties.  Kishida's visit to the USA is beginning to help LDP's fortunes. 

PR vote average (change from 3 weeks ago)
LDP     25.9 (+2.0)
KP        4.0 (-0.4)
DIY       1.4(+0.1)
PNHK    0.2 (+0.2)
JRP      12.6 (+0.2)
ARFE     1.5 (+0.3)     
DPP      3.0  (-1.1)
CDP    16.3 (+0.7)
RS        4.8 (-1.0)
SDP      1.1 (+0.2)
JCP       5.3 (-0.1)

[Logical]

Since LDP isn't standing or supporting anyone in Tokyo 15th they are seen to have lost by default.

[jaichind]

Since LDP isn't standing or supporting anyone in Tokyo 15th they are seen to have lost by default.

Yes although I think they are de facto rooting for the pro-TPFA candidate 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) who earned DPP's support because LDP chose not to endorse him.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Rengo calls for a free vote in the Tokyo 15th by-election with CDP having a candidate with JCP support and DPP backing the pro-TPFA independent.

[jaichind]

The first polls for the 3 Lower House by-elections have CDP having a significant lead in all of them

The biggest shock is in Tokyo 15h where the pro-TPFA independent has been driven to 6th place (!!!) with the CPJ in third place (!!!???).  If this represents a CPJ surge then that would be very bad news for the LDP in the next Lower House election where CPJ could run candidates in a lot of districts and take down the LDP in marginal seats.  So far this is a if.  We need to see more polling and see what the real results are

[Dr. Cynic]

Yes, let it be true!

[jaichind]

The second poll confirms CDP is ahead in Tokyo's 15th by-election with JRP second and a shocking CPJ third with everyone else way behind.  There are signs that the LDP vote could be consolidating around CPJ.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval numbers ticking up but still at a low level.

The latest Mainichi poll which also ticked up for Kashida cabinet approval has "Do you want a change in government ?" Yes/No 62/24 which are terrible re-election numbers for Kishida.

[jaichind]

4 days ago there was "leaked" LDP polling for Tokyo 15th which had

CDP                                  30.9
JRP                                   11.9
CPJ                                   10.9
pro-TPFA                            8.3
ex-CDP Upper House MP      5.5
Disgraced LDP former MP     4.4
DIY                                    3.3

Which was considered fake due to the scale of the CDP lead as well as CPJ coming in 3rd.  Now it seems this leaked poll was most likely legit.

https://twitter.com/KadotaRyusho/status/1780534251856986116

[jaichind]

Election for Ward head of 目黒区(Meguro City) in Tokyo today.

In 2020 it was

pro-LDP-KP                 39.9% (incumbant)
pro-Center-Left-JCP     35.6%
JRP                             24.6%

This time around the LDP decided not to back the incumbent and will back another, younger, candidate with the incumbent running.  The Center-Left bloc will also be split where DPP-TPFA will back a candidate while Center-Left-JCP will back another.  It seems JRP and KP are mostly not backing anyone and will be a free vote.   

[jaichind]

Another 島根(Shimane) 1st by-election poll also has CDP ahead


A third Tokyo 15th by-election poll has a CDP lead not as large but overall the same structure

[jaichind]

Count for election for Ward head of 目黒区(Meguro City)

So far it is a 4-way tie between, pro-LDP incumbent, LDP-backed independent, DPP-TPFA backed independent, and Center-Left-JCP backed candidate.

The second sheet is a ward district assembly by-election where it is a tie between LDP and CDP

[jaichind]

Count for election for Ward head of 目黒区(Meguro City) (80% of the vote counted)

pro-LDP incumbant                               27.1%
DPP-TPFA backed indpendent                 27.1%
Center-Left-JCP backed independent      27.1%
LDP backed independent                       15.0%

LDP-backed independent looks like is out... 3 way tie at the top

I think the pro-LDP incumbent will end up winning despite LDP backing their own candidate

[jaichind]

Count for election for Ward head of 目黒区(Meguro City) (95% of the vote counted)

pro-LDP incumbant                               31.2%
DPP-TPFA backed indpendent                 25.5%
Center-Left-JCP backed independent      23.6%
LDP backed independent                       15.3%

pro-LDP incumbant wins.

CDP won the ward district assembly by-election beating out LDP.

It seems the pro-TPFA independent running in the Tokyo 15th by-election is wise not to ask for LDP support.  The LDP-backed candidate completely underperformed in this race.

[jaichind]

Final results for  Ward head of 目黒区(Meguro City)

pro-LDP incumbant                               31.4%
DPP-TPFA backed indpendent                 25.1%
Center-Left-JCP backed independent      23.6%
LDP backed independent                       15.0%
Minor independent                                 4.9% (seems to be anti-tax so more aligns with JRP)

[jaichind]

This weekend's polls for the 3 Lower House by-elections next week all have CDP ahead in all 3

[jaichind]

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) projections of the next Lower House election have all 3 projections with LDP in the 180-200 seat range.



Their projections back in Oct 2021

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) has 4 separate projections including from analysts 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) and 有馬晴海 (Arima Harumi),  The 4 projections has LDP at 256 247 213 216 respectively. 

有馬晴海 (Arima Harumi)'s projection makes the least sense given the divergence of a poor PR vote for LDP but a landslide in district seats.  It seems he is expecting the JRP and DPP PR vote to tactically vote for LDP.