KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

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Kris Kobach probably runs regardless of whether or not Roberts retires, no?

Dems have quite a good slate of candidates - Svaty, Davis, even Sharice Davids could pull a Jacky Rosen. I also saw Barry Grissom mentioned on twitter.

Entirely possible that both parties have crowded primaries.

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Was unfamiliar with Katrina Lewison before the above post. She looks like she would be a formidable candidate.

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Any Dem candidates floated yet?

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Any Dem candidates floated yet?

Gov. Candidate Josh Svaty, US Atty. Barry Grissom, KS-3 Candidate Brent Welder, Lt. Gov. Elect Lynn Rogers, there are certainly more... KS Dems have quite the bench.

Not to mention the previously stated state legislators that have moderate credentials from their former republican party ID, but check all the ideological boxes thanks to their voting history.

The more I read about Katrina Lewison, the more of a no-brainer she seems. Young, veteran, West Point grad, business background, strong on education policy, from a rural area, and has no voting record to defend yet. She seems like the ideal candidate to hold Kelly voters and win over Orman voters, especially if the GOP nominates a disaster.

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La Turner seems like the embodiment of the "ladder climber" attack.

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Fear of Kobach driving attempts to recruit Pompeo quickly

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A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

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A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

All of this seems accurate. My bet is Katrina Lewison as the Democratic nominee.

It's not Lewison (I asked) - the candidate has never run for office before.

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Pompeo out:

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1098572745779093504

This will probably spark a wave of talk from potential candidates, from both parties.

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Update from my previous post: the candidate Kelly/Sebelius/Emily's List was recruiting is waffling on running, citing her family and apparently young children. Not ruling out a run in the future. Kelly/Sebelius are still trying to persuade her but Emily's List has begun searching for other candidates.

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Nancy Boyda considering

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Author Sarah Smarsh is considering, and I have confirmed that she is the candidate my colleague mentioned earlier this year who the Kelly/Sebelius team is backing

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This is a good recruit for Democrats, certainly better than Boyda though I'm sure the DSCC will still shop for a younger, female candidate (no more word from Smarsh since April). Article mentions that Schumer has spoken to Barbara Bollier, which I believe is the first we've heard of any action on her candidacy.

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I understand the party wants him because he's a formidable candidate, but no reason for Pompeo to seek this seat. If Trump wins he remains as SoS, and if he loses Pompeo would be the frontrunner to challenge Kelly or next in line for Moran's seat should he choose to bow out. He doesn't need this seat to secure his political future.

Grissom is a fine candidate, especially to contrast with Kobach, but Dems would do best with a younger, female center-left moderate (who doesn't have a record of losing as an incumbent in a Dem wave) to draw a contrast with the R candidate who is all but certain to be an older white man.

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I understand the party wants him because he's a formidable candidate, but no reason for Pompeo to seek this seat. If Trump wins he remains as SoS, and if he loses Pompeo would be the frontrunner to challenge Kelly or next in line for Moran's seat should he choose to bow out. He doesn't need this seat to secure his political future.

Grissom is a fine candidate, especially to contrast with Kobach, but Dems would do best with a younger, female center-left moderate (who doesn't have a record of losing as an incumbent in a Dem wave) to draw a contrast with the R candidate who is all but certain to be an older white man.

I dunno, considering the... "stability" of Trump's cabinet members, maybe exiting the administration for a safe Senate seat while remaining on Trump's good side doesn't sound like a bad idea overall.

A fair point. Though Pompeo has generated nothing but positive headlines and does not appear to be a Tillerson/Mattis "institutionalist" type, so he probably stands a good chance for two-term survival.

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Has Stephanie Clayton showed any interest/been recruited? She is the other State Rep from Johnson County who changed her party affiliation after the 2018 election. A few colleagues with deeper Kansas experience have mentioned Monica Murnan, Cindy Holscher, and Eileen Horn as some of their favorites.

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Jeff Colyer calling for Jake LaTurner to abandon Senate campaign and primary Steve Watkins in KS-02

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So what would a Democratic win look like on the map? The same counties Laura Kelly won last year? Is that possible? It would be nice to pick this one up.

There are a couple of different paths. Laura Kelly's performance in Johnson County was beyond even my own expectations (which were higher than most) and that was likely a perfect mix of Kobach's toxicity, Brownback's disaster, Orman getting some Republican votes, and the race being less polarized at the state level. A performance similar to Sharice Davids' is more likely in JoCo at the Senate level.

The big question mark here is if the Democrats will make an effort to expand the electorate with Latinx voters in the southwestern portion of the state. This would cut into Marshall's base in KS-01 significantly and make up for potentially lost votes in JoCo, Sedgwick, and the exurban counties between KC and Topeka.

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The term "Latinx" is picking up steam within actual Latinx communities, something I recently noticed in focus groups and began adopting myself. I assumed it had to do with gender, but wasn't sure. My understanding has always been that "Hispanic" refers to people from Spanish-speaking countries, while "Latino/a/x" refers to people from Latin America, with many people obviously falling under both categories.

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Do any of the potential Dems being floated have the kind of support from GOP establishment members that Kelly pulled?  Because while elections are rather polarized by party, given how close the margin is likely to be if the Dem manages pull it off, they’re going to need all the crossover voters they can wrangle up.

Grissom v. Kobach likely would have seen measurable establishment GOP support for Grissom before his controversy hit. Less so now.

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Wink Hartman, Kobach's 2018 running mate and wannabe, is considering

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Can we please take the culture war over Latino/a/x elsewhere?

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I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

While McConnell has stated that Pompeo is his top choice for this seat, I imagine Trump does not want this to happen, as he would lose his Secretary of State as we are approaching an election. Pompeo knows this, and probably does not want to upset Trump.

A scenario I think would work for Republicans is this: Trump endorses Roger Marshall in the primary. This would make him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, and I think Marshall would be the clear favorite in the general election as well. In this scenario, Republicans get an "electable" Republican for the general election, and Trump gets to keep his Secretary of State. Is anyone else surprised this scenario has yet to play out?

I believe OP was referring to Pompeo's being subpoenaed and potentially being implicated in or somehow damaged by the impeachment proceedings.

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Just now seeing that the situation looks even worse for Pompeo than it did when I posted.

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Bollier getting in suggests many things:

1) Smarsh is not going to run. Bollier likely consolidates the Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius support system.
2) Confidence in Grissom is gone.
3) Democrats still suspect Kobach is likely to win the primary.

Also, Abbie Hodgson dropped out of the KS-02 race to make way for "a better-funded candidate." No signs that any announcements are coming but we could see a new candidate announce here soon. Key local elected Dems in this district are Tom Holland, Monica Murnan, Eileen Horn, and Virgil Weigel.