KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Ronnie]

I think Kobach will be elected if he's the nominee.  Trump will probably win the state by 20 points again, and senate races are almost always more partisan than gubernatorial races.  There might be a bit more ticket splitting than usual, but enough to pull the Dem across?  Seems very unlikely to me.

[IceSpear]

I think Kobach will be elected if he's the nominee.  Trump will probably win the state by 20 points again, and senate races are almost always more partisan than gubernatorial races.  There might be a bit more ticket splitting than usual, but enough to pull the Dem across?  Seems very unlikely to me.

It seems unlikely to me that Trump will carry KS by 20+ points again. Johnson County is likely to swing against him, perhaps significantly, and he's already mostly maxed out in rural KS.

With that said, I concur with your overall point. However, if anyone can pull it off, it's Kobach. This is the guy that just managed to get thumped with a mere 43% of the vote despite having the (R) next to his name in KANSAS a mere 8 months ago. It might not be a toss up, but I think his nomination would certainly make it competitive, assuming Dems can find a decent candidate.

[brucejoel99]

I think Kobach will be elected if he's the nominee.  Trump will probably win the state by 20 points again, and senate races are almost always more partisan than gubernatorial races.  There might be a bit more ticket splitting than usual, but enough to pull the Dem across?  Seems very unlikely to me.

It seems unlikely to me that Trump will carry KS by 20+ points again. Johnson County is likely to swing against him, perhaps significantly, and he's already mostly maxed out in rural KS.

With that said, I concur with your overall point. However, if anyone can pull it off, it's Kobach. This is the guy that just managed to get thumped with a mere 43% of the vote despite having the (R) next to his name in KANSAS a mere 8 months ago. It might not be a toss up, but I think his nomination would certainly make it competitive, assuming Dems can find a decent candidate.

inb4 olawakandi talks up Grissom again.

[RogueBeaver]

WSJ: Field frozen because Pompeo is refusing to privately completely rule out entering, and all non-Kobach candidates would get out if he did. Kobach says on the record he'd probably stay in. CFG would spend against Marshall.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'd stay put if I were Pompeo. That's just me though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Kris Kobach is the candidate, Dems should pour resources into this state

[Storr]

I'd stay put if I were Pompeo. That's just me though.

Maybe he's worrying that Trump might start to turn on him? Or maybe he's wanting the long-term stability of a Senate seat? Either way, I don't see him jumping from his current role unless there's publicly unknown drama among the top foreign policy positions of the administration or Trump beginning to dislike Pompeo for whatever reasons.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'd stay put if I were Pompeo. That's just me though.

Maybe he's worrying that Trump might start to turn on him? Or maybe he's wanting the long-term stability of a Senate seat? Either way, I don't see him jumping from his current role unless there's publicly unknown drama among the top foreign policy positions of the administration or Trump beginning to dislike Pompeo for whatever reasons.

Or maybe he thinks Trump could lose, which means he loses his Secretary of State position no matter what, or that he thinks he is the only person capable of keeping the seat Republican, and can only do that if he actually makes a run for it, because otherwise, Kobach would cost Republicans the seat.

[tmthforu94]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

[S019]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

Nancy Boyda is also running, so she may become the Democratic front-runner

[😥]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

I would be happy to see Josh Svaty as a Democratic nominee in the Kansas Senate race

[Pollster]

I understand the party wants him because he's a formidable candidate, but no reason for Pompeo to seek this seat. If Trump wins he remains as SoS, and if he loses Pompeo would be the frontrunner to challenge Kelly or next in line for Moran's seat should he choose to bow out. He doesn't need this seat to secure his political future.

Grissom is a fine candidate, especially to contrast with Kobach, but Dems would do best with a younger, female center-left moderate (who doesn't have a record of losing as an incumbent in a Dem wave) to draw a contrast with the R candidate who is all but certain to be an older white man.

[Skye]

I understand the party wants him because he's a formidable candidate, but no reason for Pompeo to seek this seat. If Trump wins he remains as SoS, and if he loses Pompeo would be the frontrunner to challenge Kelly or next in line for Moran's seat should he choose to bow out. He doesn't need this seat to secure his political future.

Grissom is a fine candidate, especially to contrast with Kobach, but Dems would do best with a younger, female center-left moderate (who doesn't have a record of losing as an incumbent in a Dem wave) to draw a contrast with the R candidate who is all but certain to be an older white man.

I dunno, considering the... "stability" of Trump's cabinet members, maybe exiting the administration for a safe Senate seat while remaining on Trump's good side doesn't sound like a bad idea overall.

[Pollster]

I understand the party wants him because he's a formidable candidate, but no reason for Pompeo to seek this seat. If Trump wins he remains as SoS, and if he loses Pompeo would be the frontrunner to challenge Kelly or next in line for Moran's seat should he choose to bow out. He doesn't need this seat to secure his political future.

Grissom is a fine candidate, especially to contrast with Kobach, but Dems would do best with a younger, female center-left moderate (who doesn't have a record of losing as an incumbent in a Dem wave) to draw a contrast with the R candidate who is all but certain to be an older white man.

I dunno, considering the... "stability" of Trump's cabinet members, maybe exiting the administration for a safe Senate seat while remaining on Trump's good side doesn't sound like a bad idea overall.

A fair point. Though Pompeo has generated nothing but positive headlines and does not appear to be a Tillerson/Mattis "institutionalist" type, so he probably stands a good chance for two-term survival.

[VPH]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

"Grissom, a Democrat, correctly says he left the U.S. attorney job before the cover-up began, and was not a part of the contempt finding by Judge Robinson. He isn’t mentioned in her ruling."

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

yawn, safe R

nothing to see here

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I'd rather not have Kobach be the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win AZ, CO, KS, ME and NC

[tmthforu94]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

"Grissom, a Democrat, correctly says he left the U.S. attorney job before the cover-up began, and was not a part of the contempt finding by Judge Robinson. He isn’t mentioned in her ruling."

Even the KC Star, a very left-leaning paper, has denounced his candidacy and said it is DOA. He is going to continue to get raked over the coals for this and it has cast a dark cloud over his campaign in a race where Democrats literally have no margin for error. There were obviously serious issues occurring while he was attorney, who knows if any convictions were compromised because of this, though I'm sure we will learn much more in the coming months.

As the initial article states, Democrats can continue sticking their head in the sand on this, but the sooner they move on and try to find a better candidate, the better chance they have of winning the seat next year (in the event Kobach is the nominee). Kobach would beat Grissom.

[SnowLabrador]

Okay, Kobach v. Grissom would be Safe R, not Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another Steve Walsh, sigh...... Dems have AZ, CO, ME and NC anyways

[Pollster]

Has Stephanie Clayton showed any interest/been recruited? She is the other State Rep from Johnson County who changed her party affiliation after the 2018 election. A few colleagues with deeper Kansas experience have mentioned Monica Murnan, Cindy Holscher, and Eileen Horn as some of their favorites.

[tmthforu94]

Has Stephanie Clayton showed any interest/been recruited? She is the other State Rep from Johnson County who changed her party affiliation after the 2018 election. A few colleagues with deeper Kansas experience have mentioned Monica Murnan, Cindy Holscher, and Eileen Horn as some of their favorites.

Just from following her over the years, I don't think Clayton would do well in a statewide race. Holscher is already running for a seat in the Kansas Senate. Barbara Bollier is probably the more realistic option of the recent party flippers and she even met with Schumer recently, so might be open to it.

[Xing]

Not sure why people think this is anything other than Safe R. Even if Kobach is the nominee, Senate races are not Gubernatorial races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not sure why people think this is anything other than Safe R. Even if Kobach is the nominee, Senate races are not Gubernatorial races.

Barry Grissom was an independent and Orman almost won in 2014 the Senate race against Pat Roberts, thats why he retired, he was vulnerable