New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Denial isn't a river in Africa.

True. Which is why you should snap out of denial and rally behind the nominee. The longer this drags on, the better for Trump.

- edit - I don't actually believe that (extended primaries are actually good, I think), but I do find it deliciously ironic to say so.

[cvparty]

Except Iowa. Which is just white.

But Iowa has fewer wine track suburban voters. NH has a $75k median household income, IA is $60k, so Pete ought to be able to do better than he did in Iowa.

to be fair, he's probably on track to get a higher % share than in iowa, it's just bernie's very strong here too (it was his best primary state in the country in 2016 besides vermont)

[Gass3268]

Hearing turnout is "slow but steady" in Manchester so far.

17,924 was the 2016 Manchester turnout on the Dem side.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

to be fair, he's probably on track to get a higher % share than in iowa, it's just bernie's very strong here too (it was his best primary state in the country in 2016 besides vermont)

NH was very good for Bernie in 2016 because he got all of the "not Clinton" vote. He won overwhelmingly with the "undeclared" (not registered Dem) voters, but Buttigieg (or maybe Klobuchar) ought to win them this time (while Bernie has been doing relatively better with registered Dems than with registered Undeclared in NH polls).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Denial isn't a river in Africa.

True. Which is why you should snap out of denial and rally behind the nominee. The longer this drags on, the better for Trump.

"True.  Which is why Bernie should snap out of denial and rally behind Hillary.  The longer this drags on, the better for Trump." - Every Hillary supporter during the 2016 primaries

"Why should I have to settle for someone I think would make an awful President just to appease a candidate whose supporters have spent the whole primary season going out of their way to crap on people like me every chance they get?  If the guy I support wants to drag it out all the way to the last primaries, then more power to him!" - Every Bernie supporter during the 2016 primaries

EDIT:

Denial isn't a river in Africa.

True. Which is why you should snap out of denial and rally behind the nominee. The longer this drags on, the better for Trump.

- edit - I don't actually believe that (extended primaries are actually good, I think), but I do find it deliciously ironic to say so.

I don't know how ironic it is since I was a staunch Bernie supporter in 2016, but at least you're self-aware

[cvparty]

to be fair, he's probably on track to get a higher % share than in iowa, it's just bernie's very strong here too (it was his best primary state in the country in 2016 besides vermont)

NH was very good for Bernie in 2016 because he got all of the "not Clinton" vote. He won overwhelmingly with the "undeclared" (not registered Dem) voters, but Buttigieg (or maybe Klobuchar) ought to win them this time (while Bernie has been doing relatively better with registered Dems than with registered Undeclared in NH polls).

i know, it was still one of his best states though. combine that with the fact that he's the frontrunner and obviously he poses a strong challenge to any candidate here

[n1240]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NH SOS on expected turnout today:

Per WCVB --

After initially predicting a turnout of more than 500,000 percent, he has since announced an official prediction of 420,000 voters. That includes 292,000 Democratic ballots and 128,000 Republican ballots.

[Gracile]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 1pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

It's still relatively early in the day, and I would think this group typically votes later.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

turnout of more than 500,000 percent,

Vote early; vote often!

[RI]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

Ivy League elites coming out big for Wall Street Pete

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

Ivy League elites coming out big for Wall Street Pete

We prefer "Snooty Trust Fund Babies", thank you!

[cvparty]

NH SOS on expected turnout today:

Per WCVB --

After initially predicting a turnout of more than 500,000 percent, he has since announced an official prediction of 420,000 voters. That includes 292,000 Democratic ballots and 128,000 Republican ballots.

hm, higher than 2008 and 2016 on the democratic side but when you account for trump’s incumbency it’s pretty meh

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NH SOS on expected turnout today:

Per WCVB --

After initially predicting a turnout of more than 500,000 percent, he has since announced an official prediction of 420,000 voters. That includes 292,000 Democratic ballots and 128,000 Republican ballots.

2016 Dem primary turnout: 253,018
2008 Dem primary turnout: 287,556

So that projection for Dem turnout is slightly higher than in 2008.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

turnout of more than 500,000 percent,

Vote early; vote often!

So going by 2016 numbers, we should see around 1,620,000,000 total primary ballots.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

Ivy League elites coming out big for Wall Street Pete

We prefer "Snooty Trust Fund Babies", thank you!

I genuinely mean no offense by this, but for some reason I always forget that UPenn is an Ivy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

Ivy League elites coming out big for Wall Street Pete

We prefer "Snooty Trust Fund Babies", thank you!

I genuinely mean no offense by this, but for some reason I always forget that UPenn is an Ivy.

Offense taken and catalogued.  You're on thin ice, dude. 

[jaichind]

NH SOS on expected turnout today:

Per WCVB --

After initially predicting a turnout of more than 500,000 percent, he has since announced an official prediction of 420,000 voters. That includes 292,000 Democratic ballots and 128,000 Republican ballots.

Dem at 292K is a bit higher than the 2016 GOP primary vote of around 286K and a lot higher than the 2016 Dem primary vote of 253K.  GOP turnout of 128K is way higher than the 60K in the 2012 Dem primary.

[Tender Branson]

In my prediction, I said 300k voters in the DEM primary today (+/- 50k).

I'm going to lock it down now and say it's going to be at the lower end and predict 254.000

The GOP turnout is very hard to predict ...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NH SOS on expected turnout today:

Per WCVB --

After initially predicting a turnout of more than 500,000 percent, he has since announced an official prediction of 420,000 voters. That includes 292,000 Democratic ballots and 128,000 Republican ballots.

Dem at 292K is a bit higher than the 2016 GOP primary vote of around 286K and a lot higher than the 2016 Dem primary vote of 253K.  GOP turnout of 128K is way higher than the 60K in the 2012 Dem primary.

To be fair, Obama was pretty much running unopposed.  The next closest Democrat netted 945 votes to Obama's 49,000. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You know, I think my mom (Western Mass, near the Vermont/New Hampshire tripoint, rooting for Klobuchar) is spiritually an angry NH woman, in the way that Trump was spiritually a Floridian even before changing his residency.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm not quite sure what RLDF's endgame is, but it certainly is a treat for us election nerds to see a single man consistently get on every possible ballot possible since 2016.

He's trying to break John Turmel's world record for most elections lost.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

This is another good reason why we need ranked voting. In a ranked voting system, this woman could have voted for Klobuchar and Buttigieg and ignored everyone else, thereby allowing other voters decide which one of them should be win, but still elevating them above the other candidates.

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed that 2 of the 3 midnight voting towns have the most male populations in NH of all towns. Over 60% there are men. And Northern NH also has the highest percentages of old people. Southern NH is much more (sub)-urban, educated, female and younger.

Whatever this means ...

(At least this composition is very favourable for Pete.)

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

Smdh... She should've flipped a coin instead....