2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

[Ferguson97]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

R+6/7 is honestly not that bad considering the environment. Still, puts Dems in a position of losing like 40 house seats.

Not even, especially considering the lack of competitive districts thanks to all the gerrymandering.

Is there some sort of program to estimate the number of seats lost assuming a uniform shift of X?

[Ferguson97]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073 LV

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

Right, because Bernie would be so much more popular right now, therefore able to avoid the political gravity of midterm elections with record high inflation.

Eh, I don't think Bernie would stop a red wave in the midterms but I think he would do better than Biden. He's better at hammering in on certain favorable topics and he'll definitely avoid the base not showing up. He's certainly more rhetorically gifted than Biden.

The base prefers Biden over Bernie. That's why he won the primary.

[Ferguson97]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

[Ferguson97]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

That's still a huge problem for Republicans though, if Gen Z women vote for Democrats by whopping majorities and Gen Z men are split at best.

[Ferguson97]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

That's still a huge problem for Republicans though, if Gen Z women vote for Democrats by whopping majorities and Gen Z men are split at best.

I think as they age, most Gen Z men will vote GOP. The two-party system always balances out.

It does until it doesn't. Republicans were locked out of power from 1932-1948, and Democrats only won one election between 1968-1988. I could see a scenario where Republicans are temporarily locked out of the presidency due to the very liberal Gen Z, but then as Gen Alpha becomes of voting age, they are disproportionately conservative.

[Ferguson97]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1515669034599129088
More proof as to my theory about Gen Z and the gender divide. Republicans making "free speech online" an issue can make them have inroads in Gen Z males whereas Gen Z females will be hostile to that and go dem.

It's astonishing how women have consistently better politics than men

[Ferguson97]

This is bait to get Democrats to spend money in races they can't win (NC and OH).

[Ferguson97]

Yeah even if you think the polls are still underestimating Republicans, it's completely undeniable that there has been a post-Dobbs shift in favor of the Democrats.

[Ferguson97]

The guy uses gender pronouns in his Twitter bio lol. He’s a walking caricature of everything Republicans accuse Democrats of.

I’d still vote for him, sure. Doesn’t mean I think he’ll win.

Hmm...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/katiebparis/status/1559229330496036864

[Ferguson97]

"These voters are disproportionately males, ideological moderates, self-identified independents, and those living in the exburbs."

If Republicans don't have these voters in the bag, they are in DEEP trouble.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1567170117108211713

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1567158179938582533

Another # that should terrify Rs

[Ferguson97]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1568339174041739264

30% undecided?

[Ferguson97]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

You're talking about the NJ and VA gubernatorial elections? I don't think it's very useful to compare GCB preference and gubernatorial preference considering we have a Democratic governor in Louisiana and a Republican governor in Massachusetts.

[Ferguson97]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

They also have Biden's approval as -13, which is weird.

[Ferguson97]

The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1569682704844689408

LOL Gottheimer? He's going to win by double digits. They're out of their minds.

[Ferguson97]

Fox News has GCB at D+3, 44-41.  It was 41-41 in their last poll.

"Certain to vote" is tied, 45-45.

Also of note, the undecideds/others are also lukewarm on both Democrats and Republicans

Fifteen percent of voters are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. This group has unfavorable views of both the Democratic Party (67%) and the GOP (64%).

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-inflation-abortion-motivating-voter-turnout

Even if undecideds break 2:1 for the GOP, that only makes the NPV R+2. Wow.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570484956769710080

[Ferguson97]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

How do you witness the Kansas referendum and the Alaska special election and still believe this lmao

[Ferguson97]

Some interesting numbers from the NYT poll

Speak Spanish at home: 62D-29R

Don't speak Spanish at home: 47D-37D

Born in US: 54D-34D

Born abroad: 64D-27R

1st gen: 61D-27R

2nd gen: 57D-36R

3rd gen: 52D-30R

18-29: 61D-28R

30-44: 61D-29R

44-64: 44D-39R

65+: 63D-29R

Hispanic Men: 47D-41R

Hispanic Women: 65D-22R

[Ferguson97]

Republicans have the edge on the economy because a) inflation is 8% with a Democrat in the White House and b) they usually have a slight edge, it's one of the issues that "belongs" to them, like how Republicans are never going to surpass Democrats on healthcare or civil rights.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572956918020460544

20% undecided? Margin aside, trash it.