Likelier to Lose: Joni Ernst or John Bel Edwards

[Xing]

I mean, Ernst's fate is at least somewhat tied to the national environment, while Edwards would need to lose a lot of popularity to lose regardless of the national environment. Yeah, Vitter was a terrible opponent, but so was Broseph Biggins, and both 2014 and 2015 were favorable years for Republicans.

Both will probably win, but the idea that Edwards will lose because of polarization, while Ernst is safe because of "retail politics" in a state that barely re-elected a Republican with a higher approval rating than her is kind of silly.

[Xing]

Well, yes, at this moment in time Ernst is more technically more likely to lose than Edwards, but then again, so is every Senator up in 2020.