Likelier to Lose: Joni Ernst or John Bel Edwards

[S019]

Obviously, Ernst, because muh-elastic Iowa, muh-elastic South, muh-unbeatable titan John Bel Edwards. John Bel Edwards, because, the South is extremely polarized, just look at 2016 in NC, 2018 in FL, David Vitter was a Todd Akin-tier candidate and was damaged goods after all of those scandals. Meanwhile, Ernst losing is a Democratic pipe dream. But, some users will insist on the other

Also note to moderators:


Wasn't sure where to put this, move, if necessary

[Skunk]

"The South is extremely polarized" has got to be some of the laziest Atlas level analysis out there.

Anyway, JBE is more likely to lose but he's still favored to win re-election. Just not as favored as Ernst.

[Gracile]

Edwards.

[Frenchrepublican]

Edwards easily

[S019]

Lol at the 4 people who said Joni Ernst

Show yourselves

[DINGO Joe]

I voted Ernst.  The Farm economy should be a total trainwreck by then.

[LoneStarDem]

NEITHER.

OMG.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Clown Ernst will be shown the door by the Very Intelligent Swing Voters of the Great State of Iowa Who Vote For The Person, Not The Party.

Meanwhile Bel Edwards will use his socially conservative, fiscally liberal populism () to show that Louisiana is really a Democratic stronghold at heart.

Tbh there is a good case to say Ernst may be more likely to lose. Mediocre approvals (apparently), swingy as all hell state with Democratic successes actually happening more than once in recent history, polarization of federal races, etc. Dumb-o-crats seem to be angling to lose a winnable race again because she has an Iowa Values Haircut so that means she's BIPARTISAN or whatever.

Bel Edwards only has the fact the Louisiana is a very Republican state now as a mark against his electoral prospects. He only has clown-tier opponents (so far) and good approvals. Gubernatorial elections being less polarized, along with the electorate being smaller in an off-year election also helps immensely for him.

Things could affect both much closer to the election either strengthening them or weakening them... but that is how I see things on paper.

[Xing]

I mean, Ernst's fate is at least somewhat tied to the national environment, while Edwards would need to lose a lot of popularity to lose regardless of the national environment. Yeah, Vitter was a terrible opponent, but so was Broseph Biggins, and both 2014 and 2015 were favorable years for Republicans.

Both will probably win, but the idea that Edwards will lose because of polarization, while Ernst is safe because of "retail politics" in a state that barely re-elected a Republican with a higher approval rating than her is kind of silly.

[LoneStarDem]

You might want to include other politicos:

1.) Houston, TX Mayor Sylvester Turner (D): possibility he might miss the December Runoff.

2.) San Antonio, TX Mayor Ron Nirenberg (D)

3.) United States Senator Doug Jones (D-AL)

4.) United States Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)

[Pericles]

Edwards but it's less clear cut than you make it seem since federal races are more polarized than gubernatorial races. Vitter probably would have beaten Edwards if it was a Senate race in 2015.

[smoltchanov]

Of course - JBE. Louisiana is very conservative, and i don't see any signs of it becoming more liberal. If JBE would have any opponent, but Vitter, in 2015 - he would lose then....

[LoneStarDem]

Of course - JBE. Louisiana is very conservative, and i don't see any signs of it becoming more liberal. If JBE would have any opponent, but Vitter, in 2015 - he would lose then....

I just do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid in voting out a popular incumbent Governor with a record budget surplus & millions of Louisianans working, etc.,

[smoltchanov]

Of course - JBE. Louisiana is very conservative, and i don't see any signs of it becoming more liberal. If JBE would have any opponent, but Vitter, in 2015 - he would lose then....

I just do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid in voting out a popular incumbent Governor with a record budget surplus & millions of Louisianans working, etc.,

He does NOT have magical letter "R" after his name. On the contrary - he has dreaded "D". That may be enough...

[ElectionsGuy]

JBE

He's favored to win by single digits. Odd year turnout will help him, but given 44% voted for diaper boy it's not that difficult to imagine Abraham winning if he runs a decent race. Ernst, on the other hand, would have to screw up big time or Trump would have to lose by a large margin in order for her to be defeated. I have them rated Lean D and Likely R respectively.

[LoneStarDem]

Of course - JBE. Louisiana is very conservative, and i don't see any signs of it becoming more liberal. If JBE would have any opponent, but Vitter, in 2015 - he would lose then....

I just do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid in voting out a popular incumbent Governor with a record budget surplus & millions of Louisianans working, etc.,

He does NOT have magical letter "R" after his name. On the contrary - he has dreaded "D". That may be enough...

JBE can say, "I tried to reach out in a bipartisan way, but the obstructionists in the Legislature have been undermining the will of the voters since I've took office. From Medicaid Expansion (which JBE had announced during his January 11th, 2016 inaugural address) to Criminal Justice Reform, etc., the obstructionists have been plotting my political demise for no reason because they didn't get their way in the previous election."

[smoltchanov]

Of course - JBE. Louisiana is very conservative, and i don't see any signs of it becoming more liberal. If JBE would have any opponent, but Vitter, in 2015 - he would lose then....

I just do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid in voting out a popular incumbent Governor with a record budget surplus & millions of Louisianans working, etc.,

He does NOT have magical letter "R" after his name. On the contrary - he has dreaded "D". That may be enough...

JBE can say, "I tried to reach out in a bipartisan way, but the obstructionists in the Legislature have been undermining the will of the voters since I've took office. From Medicaid Expansion (which JBE had announced during his January 11th, 2016 inaugural address) to Criminal Justice Reform, etc., the obstructionists have been plotting my political demise for no reason because they didn't get their way in the previous election."

May be... I hope for his win, but still consider race to be 50-50...

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

John Bel Edwards. As has been shown in Missouri and Indiana in 2018; both less Republican than Louisiana is, its not possible for Democrats to win states where Trump received more than 59% of the 2-Party vote in 2016 outside of the most perfect of perfect storms.

[Mr. Smith]

Ernst atm. Would be more certain if Scholten were recruited.

[SnowLabrador]

Bel Edwards. He's only 4 points ahead of Ralph Abraham per the most recent poll, and only at 40%.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably JBE, but both races are nowhere near as competitive as people are making them out to be.

[RINO Tom]

Probably JBE, but both races are nowhere near as competitive as people are making them out to be.

I agree with you due to Iowa voters loving their incumbents, but why exactly are you so intent on Iowa becoming this rock ribbed Republican state?

[😥]

Probably JBE, but both races are nowhere near as competitive as people are making them out to be.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

#Bold Prediction: Ernst is 100% more likely to lose then Edwards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is a folksy populist like Tester and is part of VA like Tester, they both win close race and so does Reynolds