TX-SEN: True to Form

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Likely R. Cruz is very unlikely to lose, though I could see his margin getting reduced to something like Trump's.

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If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

Replace Nelson with Tester, and you're right

That is baring dues ex machina (a major scandal or death), or Roy Moore winning the AL GOP primary runoff. In the latter case if Democrats nominate a decent candidate, they have a shot. Still less than 50/50, but probably better than O'Rourke.

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Cruz will win easily with a positive 52-43 approval rating, in new poll: http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/02/28/poll-texans-support-trump-wall-daca/

Bit of a narrative-buster, that one.

What narrative? The one that you are a hackish troll who socks their account from rrh? No, that narrative is going quite strongly thank you. But thanks Richard!

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Hot take: TX is more likely to flip at this point than OH or WI, especially the latter.

True, but low thresholds there.

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I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

Cruz doesn't need to speak in his ads... his voice is a little grating.  That ad has a good backing audio... which he should stick to.

That said- I really think Beto has a much better shot than anyone is giving him... I know that most view winning Texas is fools gold etc... But Beto seems to be catching steam- and more importantly, I think he seems very good at campaigning (his X Factor)- and he will work harder that any other senate candidate in the country (which will make the most of these campaign skills).

I appreciate the comment. Do you think it will be beneficial for Cruz if Trump began to make a concerted effort to retract his criticisms of Cruz which he levied at him during the campaign? In other words, by professing that he was wrong about Cruz during the campaign and saying that since he has been able to work with him and has gotten to know him that Senator Cruz is really the furthest thing from being dishonest or disingenuous. That he was wrong to brand him as "lyin' Ted."

The reason that I ask is that President Trump has a positive popularity rating in Texas and so it does seem to me that a concerted effort from the President on this front could be advantageous for the Cruz campaign. I recognize, of course, that Senator Cruz would probably defeat Trump in an election contest between them in Texas, as he did decisively in the 2016 Republican primary, including with the general electorate, but it does nonetheless seem to me to be something which would be helpful for Cruz in his re-election campaign.

While it could help Cruz, Trump is simply unable to admit he can be wrong. This will never happen.

This. The fall historical rally Playbook of talking about himself at and whatever guy is running against the Republican, talking about himself some more. Then wrapping up by talking about himself. He'll simply act like him calling Cruz lying Ted, let alone is claiming Cruz's father was involved with the JFK assassination, ever happened. And all the adults who support him will gladly salivate and play along.

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The Dui story could have legs in that he attempted to flee the scene and drove into an oncoming lane of traffic. He also got off scot-free because daddy was a powerful judge

Great point! He was such a powerful judge you went back in time and set up a court-ordered diversion program available for first-time offenders several years before his son picked up a charge! Brilliant! Not hackish at all!

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I don't like O'Rourke.  For one thing, he reminds me of Ted Kennedy (one of the four Democrats from my home state whose name I practically use as a profanity), and his having a drunk driving accident which he tried to flee doesn't help with that.  For another thing, there are plenty of issues where I agree with liberal Democrats and on which a Senate candidate should have a position; so when I contacted his campaign for positions on those issues trying to persuade myself to vote for him and it turned out he had no position on them, I felt that he is either evasive or unprofessional. 

Then finally, he advocated banning AR-15s, and that was the straw that I thought decided me for Dikeman.   Now, I am quite moderate on gun control: I support background checks and high-capacity magazine bans and don't believe the Second Amendment protects an individual right to firearms, and think Wayne LaPierre is a horrible excuse for a human being.  But whenever a Democrat proposes banning one of the most popular firearms, and one which is not an outsized contributor to gun deaths, because it was used in one high-profile shooting and no one technically "needs" one, it tells me that they have not made even the slightest effort to understand gun culture.  And this makes me wonder if O'Rourke is going to be any better about trying to understand people who disagree with him than Cruz is: I feel like the answer to that question is probably "no."

The Kavanaugh hearings, however, have persuaded me that I need to vote for O'Rourke; I've finally come around to George Will's argument that Trump and his cadre of enablers need to be defeated no matter what.  Now, I don't know how many people like me there are: I am atypical of a Texas voter, and probably even atypical of a college-educated white Texas voter who moved here from a blue state: I suspect that most people who hated Cruz and normally vote were planning on voting for O'Rourke anyways.  But I am sure that there are a lot of people who are as jaded as I was and dealt with it by staying home.  I sincerely hope that the Kavanaugh hearings might have jolted enough of them out of complacency to make a difference.

I also remember with both Massachusetts in 2010 and Alabama in 2017, being sure that the state was going to elect an absolutely appalling canddiate because they had the right letter next to their name.  In both 2010 and 2017, I was pleasantly surprised.  I wouldn't say that Cruz himself is as personally reprehensible as Coakley or Moore, but in seeking to promote Kavanaugh he is attempting to install a nakedly partisan conspiracy theorist, shameless perjurer, and probable sexual predator to a lifetime position far more powerful than a mere Senate seat.  Texas isn't as red as Alabama, nor as red as Massachusetts is blue, and the polls have had Cruz only very slightly ahead.  I am therefore cautiously optimistic that the Kavanaugh hearings will lend Texas voters enough moral clarity to evict Cruz from his seat.

Unfair. This new poster has been nothing but quality since he joined.

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Next we'll hear that the typewriter's union will endorse Beto.

That could be big.  They could garble everything of Cruz's that gets printed.

Who would notice?