TX-SEN: True to Form

[Zaybay]

Wow--- just came home from work and we have tons of interesting discussions and information sharing regarding the funding priorities of the Cruz/Beto campaigns in Tejas, that opens up all sorts of interesting angles.

I guess two questions that I do have is:

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

2.) Where has the Cruz campaign been spending their money and why isn't it working?

Im no native Texan, but I think I can answer.

The likely reason for Beto's rise and Cruz's decline even though Cruz is spending more is probably because Beto and Cruz are doing the one thing that Beto needs. Getting his name out. Beto has suffered from a lack of name rec this entire time, but it appears that both Beto's and Cruz's attack ads are getting people to know his name. This has helped increase voter outreach to the two areas he needs, the Latinos in the south, and the suburban whites in the ....suburbs. It could also be due to the fact that Cruz is back in the media. Cruz became mighty unpopular due to his shenanigans in 2016, and its possible that his ads are sparking this hatred again. Those are two theories.

To answer the second one, its probably due to the fact that hes Cruz. Everyone already knows who he is, and no ads are going to change opinions. In fact, the only thing they may do is anger the Trumpys, and the moderates. Again, just a theory.

[Nathan Towne]

Wow--- just came home from work and we have tons of interesting discussions and information sharing regarding the funding priorities of the Cruz/Beto campaigns in Tejas, that opens up all sorts of interesting angles.

I guess two questions that I do have is:

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

2.) Where has the Cruz campaign been spending their money and why isn't it working?

Im no native Texan, but I think I can answer.

The likely reason for Beto's rise and Cruz's decline even though Cruz is spending more is probably because Beto and Cruz are doing the one thing that Beto needs. Getting his name out. Beto has suffered from a lack of name rec this entire time, but it appears that both Beto's and Cruz's attack ads are getting people to know his name. This has helped increase voter outreach to the two areas he needs, the Latinos in the south, and the suburban whites in the ....suburbs. It could also be due to the fact that Cruz is back in the media. Cruz became mighty unpopular due to his shenanigans in 2016, and its possible that his ads are sparking this hatred again. Those are two theories.

To answer the second one, its probably due to the fact that hes Cruz. Everyone already knows who he is, and no ads are going to change opinions. In fact, the only thing they may do is anger the Trumpys, and the moderates. Again, just a theory.

I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

"Rad", seriously? Why not "tubular" while you're at it. Hell, TUBULAR TED would be a neat nickname to stay """hip""" with the """kids""".

[NOVA Green]

Wow--- just came home from work and we have tons of interesting discussions and information sharing regarding the funding priorities of the Cruz/Beto campaigns in Tejas, that opens up all sorts of interesting angles.

I guess two questions that I do have is:

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

2.) Where has the Cruz campaign been spending their money and why isn't it working?

Im no native Texan, but I think I can answer.

The likely reason for Beto's rise and Cruz's decline even though Cruz is spending more is probably because Beto and Cruz are doing the one thing that Beto needs. Getting his name out. Beto has suffered from a lack of name rec this entire time, but it appears that both Beto's and Cruz's attack ads are getting people to know his name. This has helped increase voter outreach to the two areas he needs, the Latinos in the south, and the suburban whites in the ....suburbs. It could also be due to the fact that Cruz is back in the media. Cruz became mighty unpopular due to his shenanigans in 2016, and its possible that his ads are sparking this hatred again. Those are two theories.

To answer the second one, its probably due to the fact that hes Cruz. Everyone already knows who he is, and no ads are going to change opinions. In fact, the only thing they may do is anger the Trumpys, and the moderates. Again, just a theory.

I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

Thanks for sharing the link, which I just finished watching....

It's been over 15 Years since I was in Grad School taking courses in Political Communications, so I'm a bit rusty, but still trying to objectively analyze and not let partisan blinders get in the way.

tbf--- I think your premise that these types of ads (As either a "full ad" on relatively inexpensive late night TV Media Markets with targeted Cable channels, or split into parts in much more expensive Metro Media markets on channels with higher viewership and daytime slots) might well be fairly effective as part of a Cruz "rebranding" effort that:

1.) Introduces himself to newcomers in Texas over the past 6 Years
2.) Reminds Texas voters of their "Generic Republican" roots and value orientation
3.) Showcases his local Town Hall style events across Texas for various constituents

Still, I have some fundamental problems with this approach:

1.) Cruz is already extremely well known to newcomers to Texas, because of his prominent national role from the '16 PUB PRES primaries, as well as his GVT shutdown stunt.

2.) This campaign ad really feels more like a soft "meet Ted Cruz" style gig, "introduce the candidate with soft positive visuals, and some crowd cut-scenes from various places in Texas, with some decent sounding generic Cruz sound bites.

3.) Texas voters already have deeply "generic Republican" roots in recent years and there is absolutely zero red meat out there, just simple dog whistles about the constitution to hit a few core constituencies, who are already totally on his bus.

4.) Authenticity is considered one of his biggest weaknesses, and in many ways this style of ad accentuates the perception that "Ted Cruz is just another Politician flip-flopper who will say and do anything to win elections".

5.) There were some nice cuts at the end, especially with the "Yellow Rose of Texas" at the Funeral Service, but really Cruz for most Texans has essentially been AWOL since they elected him to go out to Washington DC.

6.) He hasn't really addressed the contradictions in his political history when it comes to Trump, and I haven't really seen him standing tall with a big hat, which initially it appeared that he was going to do back at the tail end of the '16 PUB PRES GE primaries.

It will take a lot more than a "feel good", "meet the candidate", "name check communities in Texas", bland generic political consultant campaign messaging to win back the voters of Texas that aren't so crazy about Ted Cruz these days.

Now we know where that $5 Million spend gap between Beto and Cruz went....

[Virginiá]

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

Probably the same reason why the "in-party" can't seem to turn the tide during waves - that the electorate doesn't actually respond to conventional campaign tactics that often, but politicians and consultants refuse to believe this or don't know it to begin with, so they keep throwing ungodly sums of money at elections only for it to fall flat. It makes since when you look at the special elections under Trump. Republicans spent wayyyy more than Democrats in the end, and yet Democrats still over-performed hugely in almost every special and even won a couple that would have been unthinkable if Obama were still in office. Even the one campaign tactic that has been shown to work - extensive organizing + persuasion campaigns - has a limit when the electorate is fired up against your party.

Honestly, barring some vicious October surprise, I think if Beto wins, it was pretty much always going to play out that way, and no amount of cheesy ads from Cruz would have stopped it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow--- just came home from work and we have tons of interesting discussions and information sharing regarding the funding priorities of the Cruz/Beto campaigns in Tejas, that opens up all sorts of interesting angles.

I guess two questions that I do have is:

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

2.) Where has the Cruz campaign been spending their money and why isn't it working?

So regarding the question of "how did Cruz spend all his money," I took a quick look at the FEC reports on expenditures for both Cruz and for Beto.

The data is somewhat out of date (only through the end of June), so we are missing the last 2 months, but nonetheless is pretty informative. There will only be updated data with the next FEC filing deadline in 1.5 months (mid Oct). I grouped all the FEC expenditure data by the categories of type of expenditure listed on the FEC forms. These are not entirely consistent, because the people filing the reports don't use completely consistent categories, but they paint the general picture. After the top 25 categories, I grouped everything else into "other."

First, here is Cruz's spending:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

From this you can see that the biggest single thing Cruz has been spending on is fundraising. That is the fundraising phone calls, and probably a lot/all of the printing/postage (i.e. mail). Then there is payroll. The other important thing to note is that Cruz spent a pretty good amount of money on database management, list rental, etc. In addition, Cruz spent money on a variety of consultants, which adds up. That is to support his fundraising, and also later on will be to support his voter contact/GOTV.


Next, here is Beto's spending:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

By far and away the biggest category for Beto is digital advertising. He is going nuts on digital advertising. The second thing is Payroll/Salary. Beto probably has a larger campaign with more field staff (this is normal for Democrats as compared to Republicans), so he pays more salary. And then the 3rd category that Beto is spending on is T-Shirts, Merchandise (i.e. yard signs). Those 3 things are basically the entirety of Beto's campaign (or were until he started running TV ads) ---

1) Digital Advertising.
2) Payroll for his staff/field campaign.
3) Yard signs, T-shirts, and bumper stickers.

That is basically it, and this also answers the question of why Beto has so many yard signs - because that is one of the main things he has spent money on. He has spent a huge amount of money on yard signs and other campaign swag/merchandise.

And not the expenditures on consultants etc in comparison to Cruz.



Finally, one more important thing to note... The makeup of the Payroll/Salaries between the two campaigns is quite different.

For Beto's campaign, the salaries/payrolls are split up between about 160 people, who received an average of about $6300 each (exact numbers will be off somewhat because the data is a bit noisy). What does that mean? It means that Beto is running a large field campaign with a lot of people being paid to campaign for him.

For Cruz's campaign, on the other hand, the salaries/payroll is split up between more like 20-25 people, with an average of more like $30,000-$50,000 each (with noise in the data again, for things like where only someone's first name was entered, a comma put in the wrong place, etc), with multiple people having received more than $100,000 in salaries. On Beto's campaign, there are 0 people who have gotten that much in salaries/payroll. That means that Cruz has a much smaller campaign with a relatively small number of people who get paid comparatively well to sit around in their offices and do office work of various sorts, as opposed to contact voters and organize volunteers directly.

[Ebsy]

So Cruz is wasting his money. Excellent!

[NOVA Green]

Wow--- just came home from work and we have tons of interesting discussions and information sharing regarding the funding priorities of the Cruz/Beto campaigns in Tejas, that opens up all sorts of interesting angles.

I guess two questions that I do have is:

1.) Why is it that Cruz has spent $5 Million more than Beto according to the Open Sources link, but yet his poll numbers appear to have dropped and the race has tightened up by all objective indications (Not saying that Texas is going to vote DEM for US-SEN in '18), just that there is something that feels different about this race.

2.) Where has the Cruz campaign been spending their money and why isn't it working?

So regarding the question of "how did Cruz spend all his money," I took a quick look at the FEC reports on expenditures for both Cruz and for Beto.

The data is somewhat out of date (only through the end of June), so we are missing the last 2 months, but nonetheless is pretty informative. There will only be updated data with the next FEC filing deadline in 1.5 months (mid Oct). I grouped all the FEC expenditure data by the categories of type of expenditure listed on the FEC forms. These are not entirely consistent, because the people filing the reports don't use completely consistent categories, but they paint the general picture. After the top 25 categories, I grouped everything else into "other."

First, here is Cruz's spending:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

From this you can see that the biggest single thing Cruz has been spending on is fundraising. That is the fundraising phone calls, and probably a lot/all of the printing/postage (i.e. mail). Then there is payroll. The other important thing to note is that Cruz spent a pretty good amount of money on database management, list rental, etc. In addition, Cruz spent money on a variety of consultants, which adds up. That is to support his fundraising, and also later on will be to support his voter contact/GOTV.


Next, here is Beto's spending:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

By far and away the biggest category for Beto is digital advertising. He is going nuts on digital advertising. The second thing is Payroll/Salary. Beto probably has a larger campaign with more field staff (this is normal for Democrats as compared to Republicans), so he pays more salary. And then the 3rd category that Beto is spending on is T-Shirts, Merchandise (i.e. yard signs). Those 3 things are basically the entirety of Beto's campaign (or were until he started running TV ads) ---

1) Digital Advertising.
2) Payroll for his staff/field campaign.
3) Yard signs, T-shirts, and bumper stickers.

That is basically it, and this also answers the question of why Beto has so many yard signs - because that is one of the main things he has spent money on. He has spent a huge amount of money on yard signs and other campaign swag/merchandise.

And not the expenditures on consultants etc in comparison to Cruz.



Finally, one more important thing to note... The makeup of the Payroll/Salaries between the two campaigns is quite different.

For Beto's campaign, the salaries/payrolls are split up between about 160 people, who received an average of about $6300 each (exact numbers will be off somewhat because the data is a bit noisy). What does that mean? It means that Beto is running a large field campaign with a lot of people being paid to campaign for him.

For Cruz's campaign, on the other hand, the salaries/payroll is split up between more like 20-25 people, with an average of more like $30,000-$50,000 each (with noise in the data again, for things like where only someone's first name was entered, a comma put in the wrong place, etc), with multiple people having received more than $100,000 in salaries. On Beto's campaign, there are 0 people who have gotten that much in salaries/payroll. That means that Cruz has a much smaller campaign with a relatively small number of people who get paid comparatively well to sit around in their offices and do office work of various sorts, as opposed to contact voters and organize volunteers directly.

Just posted this on the  Forum Community thread: "The Virginia Society Thread for the Preservation and Appreciation of High Quality Posts".

We need more of this type of analysis overall on Atlas.... what started with a conversation about yard signs became a collective crowd-sourcing about Media strategies, and now down to where the $$$ are spent....

Effort post....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261105.msg6387121#msg6387121

[SCNCmod]

Not that, as the article makes clear, victory comes down to yard signs. But in these places where Democrats haven't been competitive in decades legitimizing the Democrat as a viable choice becomes important.

Agree with this statement... was getting ready to say something very similar.

[SCNCmod]

I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

Cruz doesn't need to speak in his ads... his voice is a little grating.  That ad has a good backing audio... which he should stick to.

That said- I really think Beto has a much better shot than anyone is giving him... I know that most view winning Texas is fools gold etc... But Beto seems to be catching steam- and more importantly, I think he seems very good at campaigning (his X Factor)- and he will work harder that any other senate candidate in the country (which will make the most of these campaign skills).

[Nathan Towne]

I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

Cruz doesn't need to speak in his ads... his voice is a little grating.  That ad has a good backing audio... which he should stick to.

That said- I really think Beto has a much better shot than anyone is giving him... I know that most view winning Texas is fools gold etc... But Beto seems to be catching steam- and more importantly, I think he seems very good at campaigning (his X Factor)- and he will work harder that any other senate candidate in the country (which will make the most of these campaign skills).

I appreciate the comment. Do you think it will be beneficial for Cruz if Trump began to make a concerted effort to retract his criticisms of Cruz which he levied at him during the campaign? In other words, by professing that he was wrong about Cruz during the campaign and saying that since he has been able to work with him and has gotten to know him that Senator Cruz is really the furthest thing from being dishonest or disingenuous. That he was wrong to brand him as "lyin' Ted."

The reason that I ask is that President Trump has a positive popularity rating in Texas and so it does seem to me that a concerted effort from the President on this front could be advantageous for the Cruz campaign. I recognize, of course, that Senator Cruz would probably defeat Trump in an election contest between them in Texas, as he did decisively in the 2016 Republican primary, including with the general electorate, but it does nonetheless seem to me to be something which would be helpful for Cruz in his re-election campaign.

[JG]

I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

Cruz doesn't need to speak in his ads... his voice is a little grating.  That ad has a good backing audio... which he should stick to.

That said- I really think Beto has a much better shot than anyone is giving him... I know that most view winning Texas is fools gold etc... But Beto seems to be catching steam- and more importantly, I think he seems very good at campaigning (his X Factor)- and he will work harder that any other senate candidate in the country (which will make the most of these campaign skills).

I appreciate the comment. Do you think it will be beneficial for Cruz if Trump began to make a concerted effort to retract his criticisms of Cruz which he levied at him during the campaign? In other words, by professing that he was wrong about Cruz during the campaign and saying that since he has been able to work with him and has gotten to know him that Senator Cruz is really the furthest thing from being dishonest or disingenuous. That he was wrong to brand him as "lyin' Ted."

The reason that I ask is that President Trump has a positive popularity rating in Texas and so it does seem to me that a concerted effort from the President on this front could be advantageous for the Cruz campaign. I recognize, of course, that Senator Cruz would probably defeat Trump in an election contest between them in Texas, as he did decisively in the 2016 Republican primary, including with the general electorate, but it does nonetheless seem to me to be something which would be helpful for Cruz in his re-election campaign.

While it could help Cruz, Trump is simply unable to admit he can be wrong. This will never happen.

[kyc0705]

SOMEBODY MAKE IT STOP
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034843827088093184

God, Beto even looks good in his mugshot:
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034591481892405249

[Blair]

The idea that Trump would film an ad apologizing for attacking Ted Cruz is rather far-fetched.

Besides Cruz's problem isn't that Trump voters don't like him- his problem is that he's Ted Cruz, and he endorsed a man who called his wife ugly, and accused his Dad of killing JFK. It's the added reason why Beto has picked up so much money, and momentum- if he was running against John Cornyn he would't have picked up as much steam.

SOMEBODY MAKE IT STOP
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034843827088093184

God, Beto even looks good in his mugshot:
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034591481892405249

I think the Texas GOP are the only people who have used the word 'rad' in the last 20 years.

[new_patomic]

SOMEBODY MAKE IT STOP
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034843827088093184

God, Beto even looks good in his mugshot:
https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1034591481892405249

Who would you rather vote for? The cool attractive guy with a band, or the man who looks like he probably tried to make someone cry at model U.N.

[Nyvin]

Apparently when Beto was 26 he fled the scene of a DUI crash.   Think this will influence the race?

[junior chįmp]

RCP has made lying Ted Cruz' Senate Seat a Toss Up

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Cruz has led basically every poll... how is this a tossup right now?

[new_patomic]

Cruz has led basically every poll... how is this a tossup right now?

When all those polls are in or right around the margin of error.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

RCP has made lying Ted Cruz' Senate Seat a Toss Up

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html

That's the most hilarious thing I have ever heard. RCP is apparently more drunk than Brooklyn Beto was when he DWIed if they think that Titanium Titan of the Constitution 'Lyin Ted could possibly lose. I thought Sean Trende was smarter than this.

[Confused Democrat]

RCP has made lying Ted Cruz' Senate Seat a Toss Up

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html

That's the most hilarious thing I have ever heard. RCP is apparently more drunk than Brooklyn Beto was when he DWIed if they think that Titanium Titan of the Constitution 'Lyin Ted could possibly lose. I thought Sean Trende was smarter than this.

Wasn't RCP the most accurate model in 2016?

[libertpaulian]

Apparently Beto fled the scene of his DUI...move to Likely Cruz?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Apparently when Beto was 26 he fled the scene of a DUI crash.   Think this will influence the race?

Apparently Beto fled the scene of his DUI...move to Likely Cruz?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Police-reports-detail-Beto-O-Rourke-s-1998-13195088.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Race is still a tossup.

[new_patomic]

This is huge.

This is what led Al Gore to win Texas in 2000. Beto is doomed.