OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

Tbf, there were things working in Vance’s favor, most notably, low black turnout which is why counties like Moaning, Allen, and Montgomery counties swinging right from 2020 Pres.

Not to mention, every other statewide GOPer won by at least like 13%, let alone DeWine's 25% coattails. Vance's 6% showing was pitiful in comparison.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1678390677531422721

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1683509004901687297

[wbrocks67]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

Because there's lots of Dem-leaning groups that are undecided, particularly young people and black voters.

[wbrocks67]

Trump endorses Moreno. Really great recruitment happening in OH, PA, AZ, you name it!

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1737238151004143888

[wbrocks67]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Quite literally the opposite of what all of the polling has told us so far, but sure okay

[wbrocks67]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Moreno will get clobbered in the Suburbs. Senator Brown has just won Re-Election.

Neither candidate is a particularly good fit for the burbs. I'm still predicting a Brown victory but he's a bit more populist and hardscrabble than Tim Ryan which is an advantage in much of the state but no help in the suburbs.

Why are we still making stuff up? Brown is an objectively great candidate for the suburbs.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/_ktmsmith/status/1765538288528490973?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1777484437640364379

[wbrocks67]

Pissing off union works in Ohio of all places!

https://twitter.com/SpectrumNews1OH/status/1780579212476207583