OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

 https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1683592753370787840?t=a20lM1RdByTXEjP...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

I dont think Trump thinks.Moreno will lose. I mean Daines (who is the main one trying to get Trump to not endorse "unelectable" candidates) said he thinks Moreno can win.
Also Vance, Patel, Grenell and other people close to Trump have started coalescing around Moreno.

Do you see the Suffolk Prez and Sen Poll Vance had a 10 pt leads and DeWine lead by 25 Brown has won 3 straight 2006/12/18 and so has Tester he is a 3* inc

It's 12 percent blk and 12 percentage pts Arab and it's a Prez not Midterms,Brown is no slouch and neither are Tester ALLRED Kunce, Gallego and Phil Ehrand Gloria Johnson the only pickup is WV we have 4 TN, MO, FL and TX and ALLRED isn't running against Abbott he is running against Cruz different between Gov secure border and Sen blocks immigration reform

[Vosem]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

On the ground in Ohio it feels like LaRose is going to run away with it; nobody else's campaign is remotely visible and he's out-fundraised all of his opponents and is polling far better already. Moreno does have support from Miller and Vance, which is no small thing, but LaRose just doesn't share Brnovich's weaknesses (which were that Trump hated him because he refused to back STS after Trump lost AZ, and also Brnovich was a terrible fundraiser).

I think Moreno is a stronger candidate than Vance on some level, actually (like if Trump had chosen to endorse Moreno in 2022, and Vance had dropped out, then Moreno would've gotten more than 31%), but LaRose has basically consolidated enough of the remaining electorate already that I don't think a Trump endorsement would even get Moreno over the hump (...or even to within single-digits, actually) unless it were to come with an absolutely massive burst of spending.

~~

The only Republican nominations that still seem meaningfully unclear or up-in-the-air, for top-tier targets (here defined as states the GOP came within single-digits of winning in 2018 or 2022), are Arizona and Michigan, where the field hasn't been set. (And I think I agree that Marchant has some chance of clipping Brown in NV, particularly since Brown has seemed kind of weak out of the gate.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown and Tester have won. 3 straight EDAY cycles

[TML]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

[SnowLabrador]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 5% this time.

[Vosem]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

Oddly, not actually true. The last time Brown was on the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, Obama won 50.6% of the vote and Brown won 50.7%. The reason his margin was much more impressive than Obama's in 2012 was because a right-wing kind-of-proto-Trumpist third-party candidate got 4%.

The more interesting number than that is that Brown's margin was consistently 12 points ahead of House Democrats in both 2012 and 2018. Assuming 2020/2022 margins happen again (in OH these were close to the same), then the final margin is on track for R+1-2, which is a projection for a really close race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 5% this time.

Lol DeWine was on the ballot you are a Doomer Brown is gonna win and Tester watch

It's called voting S019 and 2016 said Beshesr was DOOMED Cameron hasn't lead in a single poll

[S019]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

Actually Brown and Obama’s vote percentages almost perfectly matched. It was Mandel who underperformed Romney’s vote share.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 5% this time.

Ye. I think Brown could outrun Biden by 2-5% depending upon how the campaign goes. In 2020 Ohio was Trump + 8 and if we see a repeat of that, the race is probably out of reach for Brown barring dramatic circumstances. However, if the state is only voting like Trump + 3 it could be winnable.

My biggest concern would be how much further Dems have to fall in Ohio rurals. Ohio's rurals swinging further right in 2020 was able to completely cancel out the leftward swings in Columbus and Cinci. Infact, Ohio's rurals swung somewhat abnormally right from 2016, and I think this has to do with the relative lack of investment in 2020 compared to 2016.



In this 2016-2020 swing map, you can see Ohio's rurals stick out as swinging notably to the right.

[S019]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 5% this time.

Ye. I think Brown could outrun Biden by 2-5% depending upon how the campaign goes. In 2020 Ohio was Trump + 8 and if we see a repeat of that, the race is probably out of reach for Brown barring dramatic circumstances. However, if the state is only voting like Trump + 3 it could be winnable.

My biggest concern would be how much further Dems have to fall in Ohio rurals. Ohio's rurals swinging further right in 2020 was able to completely cancel out the leftward swings in Columbus and Cinci. Infact, Ohio's rurals swung somewhat abnormally right from 2016, and I think this has to do with the relative lack of investment in 2020 compared to 2016.



In this 2016-2020 swing map, you can see Ohio's rurals stick out as swinging notably to the right.

I basically agree with this entire post. Brown can win in some universe where Ohio swings sizably left from 2020, I personally do not see this universe as likely, and it's much easier for me to see Ohio swinging right or staying stagnant. I also agree that Brown is DOA if he can't outrun Biden significantly in the rurals, and I think he will outperform less in the cities than some might think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah we supposed to give on this race and giving the S to Rs no we aren't and S019 had PA wrong on his R nut map


Brown is tied with LaRose he isn't 1o pts behind like Ryan was after IAN

We lost WI S and we won WI judge race by 11 anything can happen next ye

Do you know the PVI was Ds +1 if we improve on the PVI +1 we can win red states S019 said the same thing in KY he said Cameron was gonna win and he is losing

It's called not being a Doomer and voting why would you pick Oz winning if all people we were gonna win PA, AZ. NV and GA weren't gonna get shutout it was a neutral midterm

[MT Treasurer]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

Why would you cite unreliable exit poll data instead of actual election results?

Obama won by 3, Brown by 6 (and that was with an independent who almost certainly took more votes away from Mandel than from Brown).

Hardly an impressive overperformance. While you could argue that Brown has increased his crossover appeal since then (I’d agree with that), I don’t think he has increased it by that much.

[SnowLabrador]

Ugh, Sherrod Brown to Bernie Moreno might be a bigger downgrade than Doug Jones to Tommy Tuberville. Even if he flips Delaware County it won't be enough. I think Brown loses by 4-5 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eday is a yr and a half away and Brown is already leading that's good for Brown

[Arizona Iced Tea]

For people who think Brown survives in 2024, what do you have Ohio voting on the Presidential level?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For people who think Brown survives in 2024, what do you have Ohio voting on the Presidential level?

Probably basically on par with how it votes in 2020, with Biden getting a favorable swing about one to two points, but far from enough to actually win the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is leading by 2 over LaRose and Biden is down 6 but there is 1.5 yrs til Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For people who think Brown survives in 2024, what do you have Ohio voting on the Presidential level?

Probably on par with how it votes in 2020.

Not really because Brown has won 2 Edays when DeWine was on the ballot but weaker and 1 Eday in 2012 with no DeWine

I keep saying the Rs are gonna have a tough time with no DeWine obviously Snowlabrador thinks we are voting this yr, Brown isn't in the same position as Vance DeWine won his races by 25 in 22 and pulled Vance over by 5

Obama won OH with Biden in 2008/12, users act like OH ia a permanent red state

[ProgressiveModerate]

For people who think Brown survives in 2024, what do you have Ohio voting on the Presidential level?

I don't think Brown is favored, but he still has a shot.

I see a scenario where Biden is doing well nationally (like landslide well or close to it), and only loses OH by 3-4. Most of the state votes simillar to 2020, but Biden sees 6-10 point leftwards shifts in metro Columbus and Cinci while Cleveland has a more modest shift left, and the rest of the state is more or less a wash.

Brown outperforms Biden just enough to win, running roughly even with Biden in the metros but outrunning Biden in rural and small town communities; by as much as 8-10 points in some rural counties in eastern OH while overperformances in western OH are much more modest.

Basically, similar to Ryan's 2022 swing map, but with slightly greater magnitude and not the extreme turnout dropoff in urban areas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ Iced Tea and many Rs see the Primary numbers and think J6 isn't having an effect he posted Trump is doing well over Biden there are no attack ads from Biden on Trump yet, they will come next yr

I already know it's gonna be a landslide despite the polls because we are adding to our battleground TX, FL, MO and TN all Rs have right now is WV because of Justice they don't have MT or OH yet and they are vulnerable in TX, because of the blk vote not because of white male vote Ds are targeting blk men that didn't turnout in midterm, blk make vote on Dallas TX I already know some blks in TX that are voting Allred over Cruz and white female in Dallas, Dallas is like Chicago but it's in TX but it's changing TX to a D not R State


How much did Bush W win TX 15/20 not it's a 6 R state well in range to flip

It's a yr and a half til Edays

[Rjjr77]

Considering the track record of Ohio polling, these polls suck and point to a Lean R race.

You say that and yet the final Atlas polling average of the three most recent polls for the 2022 Senate race nailed Vance’s winning margin.  In the Governor’s race, the margin was only off by 1% (over-estimated DeWine’s margin by one point).  

I think it’s way too early to speak with any kind of certainty about this race, especially if Republicans nominate a dumpster fire candidate like Bernie Moreno or Vivek Ramaswamy.  I could also easily see Dolan being a spoiler who costs LaRose the primary.  

The thing about Ohio is the polling always favors democrats until close to the election when it always seems to get normal, Ohio is a very hard state to poll and we rarely see geographical weighting in polls until much later.

[Rjjr77]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

On the ground in Ohio it feels like LaRose is going to run away with it; nobody else's campaign is remotely visible and he's out-fundraised all of his opponents and is polling far better already. Moreno does have support from Miller and Vance, which is no small thing, but LaRose just doesn't share Brnovich's weaknesses (which were that Trump hated him because he refused to back STS after Trump lost AZ, and also Brnovich was a terrible fundraiser).

I think Moreno is a stronger candidate than Vance on some level, actually (like if Trump had chosen to endorse Moreno in 2022, and Vance had dropped out, then Moreno would've gotten more than 31%), but LaRose has basically consolidated enough of the remaining electorate already that I don't think a Trump endorsement would even get Moreno over the hump (...or even to within single-digits, actually) unless it were to come with an absolutely massive burst of spending.

~~

The only Republican nominations that still seem meaningfully unclear or up-in-the-air, for top-tier targets (here defined as states the GOP came within single-digits of winning in 2018 or 2022), are Arizona and Michigan, where the field hasn't been set. (And I think I agree that Marchant has some chance of clipping Brown in NV, particularly since Brown has seemed kind of weak out of the gate.)

What? LaRose's fundraising has always been weak, Moreno's was very good and that was without his own money in. LaRoses polling edge also appears to be very soft, with it mostly name ID and not alot of hard support

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LaRose is weak because as I keep saying DeWine was the only one that pushed Vance and if there wasn't any DeWine Vance would have lost just like LaRose

[windjammer]

LaRose is a bland guy who doesn't inspire the masses.