Polish Politics and Elections

[Germany1994]

It´s election day in the home country of my parents.

When do we get first turnout numbers??

[Germany1994]

At 12 pm turnout was 22,59 % compared to 18,14 % at the same time in 2019.

Here you can see it:

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/frekwencja/pl

[Germany1994]

How turnout was at noon in the five biggest cities of Poland.

Warsaw -  2019: 20,73 %
               2023: 25,43 %


Kraków   - 2019: 19,73 %
                2023: 23,59 %
 

Wrocław  - 2019: 18,33 %
                2023: 23,67 %
 

Łódź       - 2019: 18,98 %
                2023: 23,41 %
 

Poznań   - 2019: 19,35 %
               2023:  23,00 %
   

[Germany1994]

At what time were results announced in 2019?

Polls close at 9 pm local time and then Exit polls are revealed.

[Germany1994]

At what time were results announced in 2019?

Polls close at 9 pm local time and then Exit polls are revealed.

How reliable are they?

Don´t know.

[Germany1994]

Any suggestions who benefits??

[Germany1994]

If you're wondering why Gdansk is an outlier, it's currently raining heavily along the Baltic coast.

Rain has moved from Northern Virginia to Gdansk.

[Germany1994]

Any streams that aren´t geoblocked??

[Germany1994]

What about projected turnout??

[Germany1994]

Did they show a map which party won which Voivodeships??

[Germany1994]

Do we already have some Exit poll numbers split by age, education, gender and so on??

[Germany1994]

So far nearly all counted votes are from abroad and basically all of them from the United States and Canada,  so they skew heavily towards PiS.

What´s the main reason Poles in Northern America are more conservative?? Is it because they emigrated much earlier than the Poles in Europe and therefore their only contact to their homeland is TVP Polonia?? So they´re getting a biased picture of the situation??

[Germany1994]

I´m getting more and more optimistic that the PiS rule is coming to an end.

[Germany1994]

How is the mood at TVP?? The same like at Fox News in 2012??  

[Germany1994]

Pis just dropped below 37 %. 

[Germany1994]

It's looking like the original IPSOS exit poll slightly underestimated Kon and TD while overestimating PiS and KO, but not by much.

Maybe Slovakian pollsters should ask their Polish colleagues how to improve. 

[Germany1994]

Worth noting that Warszawa is only 60-ish percent in. It has KO over PiS 42-22 at the moment, so the rest coming in should be a big boost to KO.

And there are still little to no votes from areas where KO will do very well, like Świnoujście  or Gliwice.

[Germany1994]

In the end KO will end up above 30%, they´re at 29,89 % at the moment.

[Germany1994]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 36.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

PiS is already under 36 %. 

[Germany1994]

The end is finally near, only about 500 districts left to count!! 

[Germany1994]

PiS doing bad in big cities isn´t anything new but once again they´re performing especially terrible in Poznań (18,63 %).

What´s the reason for the even bigger weakness there?? A high education level??

[Germany1994]

What is the breakdown in seats between Polska 2050 and PSL?

All elected to Sejm members of Third Way:

Polska 2050 - 33 seats:
2 - Aleksandra Leo
3 - Tomasz Zimoch, Izabela Bodnar
4 - Norbert Pietrykowski
5 - Marcin Skonieczka
6 - Joanna Mucha
7 - Sławomir Ćwik
8 - Maja Nowak
9 - Ewa Szymanowska
12 - Paweł Śliz
13 - Rafał Komarewicz
15 - Piotr Górnikiewicz
18 - Żaneta Cwalina-Śliwowska
19 - Michał Kobosko, Ryszard Petru
20 - Paweł Zalewski
21 - Adam Gomoła
22 - Bartosz Romowicz
23 - Elżbieta Burkiewicz
24 - Szymon Hołownia, Barbara Okuła
25 - Agnieszka Buczyńska
26 - Wioleta Tomczak
27 - Mirosław Suchoń
29 - Piotr Strach
30 - Łukasz Osmolak
31 - Michał Gramatyka
32 - Kamil Wnuk
33 - Rafał Kasprzyk
36 - Barbara Oliwiecka
37 - Paulina Hennig-Kloska
38 - Adam Luboński
39 - Ewa Schadler

PSL - 32 seats:
1 - Tadeusz Samborski
4 - Aleksandra Kłopotek
5 - Zbigniew Sosnowski
6 - Krzysztof Hetman
7 - Wiesław Różyński
8 - Stanisław Tomczyszyn
10 - Dariusz Klimczak
11 - Paweł Bejda, Jolanta Zięba-Gzik
13 - Ireneusz Raś (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
14 - Urszula Nowogórska
15 - Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
16 - Piotr Zgorzelski, Mirosław Orliński
17 - Mirosław Maliszewski
18 - Marek Sawicki
19 - Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski
20 - Bożena Żelazowska
23 - Adam Dziedzic
24 - Stefan Krajewski
25 - Magdalena Sroka
26 - Marek Biernacki
28 - Henryk Kiepura
33 - Czesław Siekierski
34 - Zbigniew Ziejewski
35 - Urszula Pasławska
36 - Andrzej Grzyb
37 - Michał Pyrzyk
38 - Krzysztof Paszyk
39 - Jacek Tomczak (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
40 - Radosław Lubczyk (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
41 - Jarosław Rzepa

Where did you find this??

[Germany1994]

If I counted correctly there will be 132 women in the new parliament, a quota of 28,7 %.

PiS - 40/194 (20,6%)
KO - 60/157 (38,2%)
TD - 19/65   (29,2%)
Lewica -12/26 (46,2%)
Kon - 1/18 (5,6%)

[Germany1994]

Tusk won't overturn many PiS laws. He doesn't have the 3/5 majority to override a presidental Veto. Tusk will spend most of his time purging the PiS patronage network and trying to unfreeze the EU recovery billion.

I'm not sure since the president of Poland is more of a ceremonial head of state similar to the president of Germany. It's not a semi-presidential republic like France, let alone a presidential system as the US has.

Nope.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Poland

[Germany1994]

The new government has fired the bosses of TVP,  trying to bring the network back to a balanced stance after PiS made propaganda channels out of them.  

Another question about Polish TV: I know that TVN was basically the opposition channel in the last eight years. What about the other big private channel Polsat?? What was their stance towards PiS??