VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Roronoa D. Law]

Virginia flipped blue in 2016 at 9:55 PM Eastern, for reference.

Right when NOVA counties starting coming in. If Gillespie does not have a significant lead before Fairfax comes in he likely done for.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Not sure if anyone posted this but Dave Wasserman has put out benchmark table. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sqPqFtJl2gxjAUR076E2M8-jpgOOct07FKx08zuP4bM/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0

[Roronoa D. Law]

i'm messing around but don't treat the results that are in so far as a northam win just yet. wait until the results start rolling in later tonight.

turnout can change inbetween now and 7 pm, and gillepsie could end up doing a lot better in traditionally D areas than a typical republican.

Same can be said about Northam he will do a lot better than typical Democrats in Hampton Roads.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The NBC monument number seems reasonable I think a Marist poll showed AA split on the issue.

[Roronoa D. Law]

NBC exit poll plurality of trump county voters say things have gotten worse since trump became president (Saw it on msnbc a min ago)

Yep. Rip Gillespie.

That's nationally though.

[Roronoa D. Law]

So votes come in like this.
1. Rural VA
2. Richmond
3. Hampton Roads
4. Loudon/Prince William/Stafford
5. Arlington/Alexandria
5. Fairfax

[Roronoa D. Law]

It is now pouring in Fairfax. It doesn't matter now because we already have the turnout we need there.

Btw, is anyone else following the Predictit thread? There is this Trump supporter who hilariously thinks Gillespie will win Loudon (Not impossible) but more importantly thinks Prince William County is up for grabs. If that were true, Gillespie would win by 5 points.

you mean this guy

[Roronoa D. Law]

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What was it in 13?

47.6

[Roronoa D. Law]

The Jeff guy on twitter is giving me a heart attack, only way EG gets an upset it he's doing better in NoVA.

EG needs to do better than in NOVA. Northam has a good chance of picking up James City, Accomack, Chesapeake.

[Roronoa D. Law]

On the precinct level Northam is over performing TMac in key areas.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Northam can really win Chesterfield at this point.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Considering what happened in Virginia tonight i'm not all that interest in Maryland I mean Democrat have super majorities there. What about North Carolina? Charlotte swing was huge.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

So, then Democrats just won a lot didn't they? Like the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The Virginia one. The New York mayoral one.

Don't forget we might win two legislative chambers and GOP lost there supermajority in GA.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Lol the difference here is that Alabama isn't a swing state and that we are all fully expecting Bible thumper Roy Moore to win.

It was never really on the radar either. A Dem win in AL is if Jones comes in single digits because if it single digits in AL that mean GA is-.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Not sure anybody posted yet.

[Roronoa D. Law]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Taylor is too entrenched.

He literally won the seat last year.

But he was a state rep from the area even before, plus a ton of $, moderate persona, ok looking, good name rec, now incumbency, R leaning district, Likely R.

Well in the likely scenario that Kaine vs Stewart is the top ticket combined with an unpopular Trump. Democrats turnout will probably higher next year, Kaine will probably win double digits, and depressed GOP turnout I could see Taylor losing.