VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Keep cool-idge]

So something we all need to keep in mind is that....
In 2016 for 10 days trump was gaining in polls of course the comey letter helped but the last 4 days Hillary recovered a bit going from a 65% chance of winning to 72% chance of winning on 538.

So while I’m extremely nervous about the race I’m still optimistic.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So I finally saw the Latino Victory Fund ad everyone's been freaking out about and I gotta say that not only do I fail to see anything even remotely offensive about it (the point it raises is an entirely legitimate one), I'd argue it was remarkably tame for an attack ad (and one that raised a pretty fair question; Donald Trump's certainly not done anything to suggest he has a problem with minorities being run over by white supremacists, his first impulse with Charlottsville was clearly to side with the Nazis).  It's really not even a smear, tbh.  

I'm not a fan of using the term "snowflake" to describe anyone, but if ever there was a case where the term applied, it's to people who were "offended" by that ad (all due respect to VirginiaModerate, who AFAIK is a pretty reasonable guy).  Honestly, I don't blame the Latino Victory Fund for running it and if Northam had just not commented on it, it'd probably have been treated like the nothingburger it is by most.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So something we all need to keep in mind is that....
In 2016 for 10 days trump was gaining in polls of course the comey letter helped but the last 4 days Hillary recovered a bit going from a 65% chance of winning to 72% chance of winning on 538.

So while I’m extremely nervous about the race I’m still optimistic.

I get what you're saying, but this is a very different situation than the Presidential election because there's no Electoral College to complicate things.  In November, the polls did tighten in the closing days, but remember that the final national polling average was quite close to the actual popular vote margin.  Clinton just didn't get enough of that vote in the right states. 

Here, the average is showing Northam with a wider lead than Clinton's final national lead.  Although a Gillespie win is certainly still in the realm of possibility, I'd much rather be in Northam's position.

[SoLongAtlas]

So I finally saw the Latino Victory Fund ad everyone's been freaking out about and I gotta say that not only do I fail to see anything even remotely offensive about it (the point it raises is an entirely legitimate one), I'd argue it was remarkably tame for an attack ad (and one that raised a pretty fair question; Donald Trump's certainly not done anything to suggest he has a problem with minorities being run over by white supremacists, his first impulse with Charlottsville was clearly to side with the Nazis).  It's really not even a smear, tbh.  

I'm not a fan of using the term "snowflake" to describe anyone, but if ever there was a case where the term applied, it's to people who were "offended" by that ad (all due respect to VirginiaModerate, who AFAIK is a pretty reasonable guy).  Honestly, I don't blame the Latino Victory Fund for running it and if Northam had just not commented on it, it'd probably have been treated like the nothingburger it is by most.

It's not a matter of offense. Offense is emotional. The ad made an appeal to shifting metrics. You have to think in the eyes of GOP operatives and voters and how they would (and did) react. It was far from a nothingburger but not the worst thing ever - the truck did stop short and the video didn't have kids being run over.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting trivia:

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[Dr. Arch]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

At what % reporting did Hillary take the lead last year?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

I believe traditionally around 7:20 est, though they are relatively slow coming in for the first hour before coming in significantly faster after that.

[SoLongAtlas]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

8 or 9 for a good but not full picture, rural counties post first, Ffx and PW last to get to 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Statewide.html

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting trivia:

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Clinton campaigned for Terry in 1993?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

At what % reporting did Hillary take the lead last year?

82%, though she lead in literally the first returns before Trump took a large lead.

[Gass3268]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

8 or 9 for a good but not full picture, rural counties post first, Ffx and PW last to get to 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Statewide.html

Chesterfield County, just south of the City of Richmond, is a good county to key on early. It is one of the first counties to report and if Gillespie doesn't win it by 8-9 points, he'll be in trouble.

[Gass3268]

From Nate Silver:

[_]

From Nate Silver:

So Gillespie has a 25% chance then.

Alright

[Gass3268]

From Nate Silver:

So Gillespie has a 25% chance then.

Alright

About 10% better odds for Gillespie than Trump had in VA last year.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Before today, I felt like the race was becoming a pure tossup, but I think Northam has gotten back on track some. His lead appears to be stabilizing, but a Gillespie win isn't out of the question.

I've been thinking that there is reason to believe that the polls are underestimating Northam. As we learned from the polls last year, enthusiasm is difficult to accurately poll, and the enthusiasm right now seems to be behind Northam more than Gillespie.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So I finally saw the Latino Victory Fund ad everyone's been freaking out about and I gotta say that not only do I fail to see anything even remotely offensive about it (the point it raises is an entirely legitimate one), I'd argue it was remarkably tame for an attack ad (and one that raised a pretty fair question; Donald Trump's certainly not done anything to suggest he has a problem with minorities being run over by white supremacists, his first impulse with Charlottsville was clearly to side with the Nazis).  It's really not even a smear, tbh.  

I'm not a fan of using the term "snowflake" to describe anyone, but if ever there was a case where the term applied, it's to people who were "offended" by that ad (all due respect to VirginiaModerate, who AFAIK is a pretty reasonable guy).  Honestly, I don't blame the Latino Victory Fund for running it and if Northam had just not commented on it, it'd probably have been treated like the nothingburger it is by most.

It's not a matter of offense. Offense is emotional. The ad made an appeal to shifting metrics. You have to think in the eyes of GOP operatives and voters and how they would (and did) react. It was far from a nothingburger but not the worst thing ever - the truck did stop short and the video didn't have kids being run over.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

I suspect a lot of that was faux outrage and that the whole controversy didn’t have much of an impact despite Northam’s incompetent handling of it.

[Baki]

At what % reporting did Hillary take the lead last year?

82%, though she lead in literally the first returns before Trump took a large lead.

Also, in 2014, in the Warner-Gillespie Senate race Gillespie was leading until about 92% had reported.

With 1% reporting Gillespie's lead was 61-36 I think.

I don't know if it matters, just putting it out there.

[Virginiá]

@Old Liner: May you shrink that signature some please? Adding width=400 to the [img] tag would help a lot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Before today, I felt like the race was becoming a pure tossup, but I think Northam has gotten back on track some. His lead appears to be stabilizing, but a Gillespie win isn't out of the question.

I've been thinking that there is reason to believe that the polls are underestimating Northam. As we learned from the polls last year, enthusiasm is difficult to accurately poll, and the enthusiasm right now seems to be behind Northam more than Gillespie.

This seems plausible:

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From the looks of it, undecideds are going for Northam which will ultimately hand him the Governor's mansion. Gillespie's surge was really because the Republicans were coming home but now we are seeing Ralph stabilizing. In the end, I believe it will be Northam +6 or +8.

[Jeppe]

Virginia flipped blue in 2016 at 9:55 PM Eastern, for reference.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Virginia flipped blue in 2016 at 9:55 PM Eastern, for reference.

Right when NOVA counties starting coming in. If Gillespie does not have a significant lead before Fairfax comes in he likely done for.

[MT Treasurer]

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.