IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

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http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-bruce-rauner-ken-griffin-20-million-met-20170517-story.html

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This race is going to be hell, 18 months of constant ads, big money, charges of corruption on both sides, most expensive race ever, yay.

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Well so far things are looking good in the Dem primary, with the 2 frontrunners being J. B. Pritzker, who asked Blago for state Treasurer, and Chris "Anti Charisma" Kennedy.  Both would make it a tossup imo.

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Well so far things are looking good in the Dem primary, with the 2 frontrunners being J. B. Pritzker, who asked Blago for state Treasurer, and Chris "Anti Charisma" Kennedy.  Both would make it a tossup imo.

Counting potential candidates, my IRV list is:
1. Chris Kennedy
2. Scott Drury
3. Daniel Hynes
4. Kwame Raoul


If it's Pritzker or Bliss vs. Rauner and Chad Grimm(L) doesn't run, then I'll probably support Rauner.

I understand being against Pritzker, but why against Bliss, I think he'd make it lean D.

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kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

If real congratulations Nominee Pritzker!

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kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

Link to an article/video, please.

friend of a friend was there

Video proof or article would be better, if this is somehow real though...

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lol....Rauner refuses to implement budget:

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Good.  If opposing tax increases hurts his reelection then we're in some Bizarro Universe.

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Politico on the state of the race and the money that is expected to be spent.

Only 300 Million??
Psssshhhhh
I DEMAND 1 BILLION DOLLARS ON THIS RACE

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If Illinois votes Rauner again I'll stop feeling bad because at this point they're doing it to themselves.

Ah yes lets vote for the people who will keep the machine running for another 12 years, good idea.

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Ah yes lets vote for the people who will keep the machine running for another 12 years, good idea.

Good point, but still, Rauner sucks. Run someone else. His tactics are not working. Say what you will about Madigan & Co, but Rauner doesn't seem to be the right person for the job imo. And by no means am I saying someone like Pritzker is right for the job either. I don't really have a high opinion of wealthy businessmen with dubious qualifications buying their way into office.

The choice is a bumbling idiot or a bumbling idiot who is a puppet of the corrupt machine that has been destroying this state for decades imo.

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If Illinois votes Rauner again I'll stop feeling bad because at this point they're doing it to themselves.

Ah yes lets vote for the people who will keep the machine running for another 12 years, good idea.

You don't really think Kennedy or Drury would keep the Madigan-Emmanuel machine in power, do you?

Ah yes lets vote for the people who will keep the machine running for another 12 years, good idea.

Good point, but still, Rauner sucks. Run someone else. His tactics are not working. Say what you will about Madigan & Co, but Rauner doesn't seem to be the right person for the job imo. And by no means am I saying someone like Pritzker is right for the job either. I don't really have a high opinion of wealthy businessmen with dubious qualifications buying their way into office.

Rauner is an incumbent. Sure, Dillard, Kinzinger, or Rutherford would do better ideologically and at governing, but Rauner's not too incompetent or an extremist. He and Madigan aren't willing to compromise. Sure, it's hurting Illinois, but this is Madigan's machine. He is the one who has to compromise if he really cares about the people of Illinois.

I don't trust Kennedy and Drury will never win the primary.

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Bill Daley is the new finance director for Kennedy's campaign. Biss raised more money than Kennedy did in Q2. 

Also, Chicago Tonight just had an interview with a primary challenger to Rauner.

So Kingpoleon, tell me again how Kennedy won't let the establishment stay in power.

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kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

Link to an article/video, please.

friend of a friend was there

Video proof or article would be better, if this is somehow real though...

Here's the video.

Apparently the charming politician gene skipped Chris:

Congrats nominee Pritzker.

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^ Dan Biss still has a chance. He raised a good deal of money and if he can convince Sanders' organization to back him, he can hope Pritzker splits enough with other candidates.

Personally pulling for Scott Drury, but I'd be surprised.

I seriously doubt anyone can stop Pritzker with Kennedy imploding like this, but I've always been thinking Biss has a shot. 
80% Chance Pritzker wins imo.

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Solid (if lengthy) article on the Dem primary, specifically Drury's focus on Madigan.

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I like Drury, but I would never vote for him because despite all his bluster about getting rid of Madigan, he'll sign the Gerrymandered maps that Madigan sends him in 2021 and keep him in power, there is absolutely no question he'll do that, and that's why i'm locked in for Rauner no matter what.

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and the Tilt R rating with Pritzker solidifies.  Thank you Cook County Democrats.

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Its almost sad how badly Democrats in Illinois have handled this. Almost.

This is nowhere near sad, this is a comedy.

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Pritzker is really, really unlikeble... ew.  What a gift to Rauner.  He'll still lose, but the democrats chose their worst possible candidate.

*Doubt*

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I'm still holding out hope that Biss becomes a dark horse and bucks the establishment in the end, but it's looking more and more grim.

Honestly, the fact that the choice is between a millionaire and a billionaire is pretty disheartening, at least for a Bernie Bro like me.

You mean you are sad to pick between millionaires and billionaires, but you idolize a man who's made six figures for decades and has multiple houses?

Oh, plus this.

http://time.com/money/4235986/bernie-sanders-millionaire-finances/

Back to illinois, Rauner could win if the nominee is Pritzer.

He'd lose to Kennedy, that Jeb! like mess?  I think he can win with Pritzker or Kennedy, but he'd be better off with Pritzker.

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Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

theres a 50 million dollar difference between lincoln and rauner.

Michael Madigan and a Dem tax raise also separate Blanche and Rauner.

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I still think there's an outside chance that if Rauner ties the D nominee to Madigan and makes the race about being a check on him, he could pull off a squeaker. Madigan really has the potential to be that toxic. Of course, that depends on who the voters hate more.

Madigan. The voters hate Madigan more. His approval rating, last I can find, is 26%. Even Rauner has higher numbers than that.

IIRC Rauner is mid to high 30s pre tax raise, I think he's improving now.

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Sabato Article on Govs, posting the IL Portion.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/governors-2017-2018-the-democrats-complicated-path-to-big-gains/

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It's also worth noting that the State Legislature is a tangible enemy for Republicans to campaign against. IL state seats are severely gerrymandered: in 2014, the GOP was a point away from winning the popular vote in the house altogether but not a single seat flipped in the Democratic Supermajority. 

Those Madigan approval rates do matter here.

Rauner's money helped flip some in 2016, hopefully he can help us flip more in 2018, especially once Pritzker is a lock for the D Nomination, we can bring up Blago and Quinn in that scenario.

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Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

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Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

While I strongly support Biss in the primary (who fits that description pretty well), I don't think we need an A-lister to beat Rauner tbh.  It'd be nice and I worry about the Dems taking it for granted with Pritzker, but I still think he'd beat Rauner in the end barring some sort of new scandal (always possible).

You don't need an A-Lister, just someone besides Pritzker or Kennedy.

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Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

While I strongly support Biss in the primary (who fits that description pretty well), I don't think we need an A-lister to beat Rauner tbh.  It'd be nice and I worry about the Dems taking it for granted with Pritzker, but I still think he'd beat Rauner in the end barring some sort of new scandal (always possible).

You don't need an A-Lister, just someone besides Pritzker or Kennedy.

Pritzker can get the job done just fine.  I agree that Kennedy would lose though.

You're saying someone like Jeb would do better than someone like Clinton, I highly doubt that, but alright.