The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Oregon, 52-44 for the President in approval:

http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/oregon_media_partners--annot--june.pdf


Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, again, PPP. Approval did slip below 50%, but still positive.

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Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

[pbrower2a]

Please color NH green, thx.

Got a new poll from New Hampshire? Nevada and Pennsylvania are probably in the same category.

[pbrower2a]

Please color NH green, thx.

Got a new poll from New Hampshire? Nevada and Pennsylvania are probably in the same category.

Yes, 2 posts above yours in the graphic (49-44).

NH back to green:

With pleasure! Thank you!

No way can Mitt Romney win either Nevada, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania if the President's approval is  positive -- or near or above 50% in either of those States. Arizona, Georgia, or Missouri -- maybe.


Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 36
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 39
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

[pbrower2a]

Is there any raw data available for most recent state-by-state approval-disapproval numbers that can be found in one list?

Rasmussen used to offer plenty of statewide polling -- but not now. PPP offers the bulk. Quinnipiac University has good polling, but only on a few (but important) states. Occasionally some university or media poll comes out for a state that doesn't get polled often. SurveyUSA seems to poll the same states, but the results almost never jibe with anyone else's polls.

Gallup mostly does nationwide polls that say nothing about individual states -- except that one can leave certain things to the imagination. If the President has an approval rating of 42% nationwide, then he would probably lose a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania. If his approval is about 50%, then he wins both and has a chance to win Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. If his approval is about 55% he wins all five aforesaid states and might pick up Kentucky and Texas.   

The map that I have, flawed as it may be, is modeled after the practices of electoralvote.com which goes into hibernation as soon as the last Senate or House seat is decided. My map probably goes into hibernation when electoralvote.com goes back into action.   

[pbrower2a]

Respectfully, a few brief replies.

Presidents should be willing to make politically costly decisions if they believe these decisions are truly the right things to do.  There are actually more important things in the world than any president serving two terms.  Though president Bush '41 only served one term, he did so honorably, and I'm very glad it was him at that helm when the Cold War came to an end and Hussein invaded Kuwait.  If guaranteed issue survives in the health insurance industry in our future, I think lots of people will be glad Obama was there to insist on it during his term in the future.

There is more -- much more. If Barack Obama should be a one-term President, he will have achieved more in two years than some Presidents have achieved in two full terms.  Much credit would have to be shared with the 111th Congress, but that is fair. If he should be a one-term President it will be for reasons vastly different from those of Taft (ill-suited for the Presidency), Hoover (came in just as an economic meltdown was about to begin and did just about everything wrong), Ford (had no idea of how to campaign for the Presidency), Carter (few legislative achievements), or the elder Bush (had no idea of what to do in a Second Term).

Not all of the Obama agenda can be undone.

  

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Military life wasn't exactly lucrative (Eisenhower), and Hoover at the least put much effort into relief of hunger in Europe (although after he had made a fortune in the mining industry). But any 'communication' with them will have to be one-sided, as those two have been dead since the 1960s.  

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President Barack Obama does not understand small-town life. But he does understand life in Urban America and Suburban America -- where the people are.  He understands Suburbia as Republicans don't any more. It is not enough for Republicans to expect people to vote as their bosses suggest because in this economic climate, people have good cause not to trust their bosses. Tax cuts and regulatory relief are no longer enough to induce moderates to vote for the Hard Right.

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Short of a massive tax-and-spend program that can effectively stimulate the economy through big public-works projects, nobody is up to the task of inducing a quick economic recovery. The Republicans seem to act as if the way to get economic growth is through lower wages, tax cuts for the super-rich, permissive treatment of environmental damage and workplace safety, and of course corporate power over employees that easily translates to abject fear.

Beyond any question it is possible to get quick growth with starvation wages and 60-70 hour workweeks as in China about 30 years ago, but that would imply that things have gone very bad from very good conditions. I can't see many people liking that, and the only way in which many Americans would tolerate that is if they had suddenly been reduced to such poverty in the aftermath of a nuclear war.  

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1611

About two months ago, President Obama could have been projected to lose Pennsylvania against Romney but win against anyone else. That is over. Although approval of the president matches disapproval, the President now leads Romney in a likely matchup for now by a 7-point margin. Such is consistent with the usual built-in advantage for an incumbent of roughly 6%. It would take an extremely strong challenger to defeat President Obama in Pennsylvania, and this is with the Republicans making significant inroads into popularity in the state.

The President will have to do some campaigning in the Keystone State, but it looks as if he would win by just less than he did in 2008. I can now project that the President would win re-election with about the same number of electoral votes as he won in 2008, basically winning every state that he won in 2008 except perhaps Indiana (which I cautiously pick to be a GOP pickup in the absence of polling because of the prior voting of the state) and Nevada (although the April poll is likely obsolete, in view of polls in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania). The President picks up Georgia, though, and seems to have about an even shot at winning Arizona, Missouri, and South Carolina.  This is against Mitt Romney. Against a weaker nominee the President wins a  landslide in electoral and probably popular votes by picking up Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, and likely more. I of course assume that the President holds onto Delaware, Illinois, and Vermont.

Quinnipiac, Connecticut.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1612

More solid than in March.
  



Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 36
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 26
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

[pbrower2a]

Places Obama has lived:

Honolulu (Age 0-6)
Jakarta (6-10)
Honolulu (10-18)
Los Angeles (18-20)
New York City (20-24)
Chicago (24-27)
Cambridge, w/ Chicago in the summers (27-30)
Chicago (30-48)
Washington (48-present)

Cambridge isn't urban, I guess you can argue Honolulu isn't urban enough, but everywhere else on that list is clearly and unarguably urban. Most of those cities, actually, are more populated and more densely populated than the city you live in.

Jakarta certainly isn't an American urban center, and living in the White House or a Harvard certainly is not living in North Philly.    

As I've said, unlike others I have mentioned, he never was part of the urban experience (neither was GWB's living in Austin, or RWR's living in the Greater LA area (possibly in LA)).

I'm not being critical of it, but let's be honest about it.  Obama wasn't from the most advantaged background of any post WW II president, but he wasn't the least advantaged either.

Cambridge, Massachusetts  is at least suburban.

What Presidents were more or less advantaged than Obama... beginning with FDR?

 1. FDR. Patrician, would be an aristocrat if America recognized aristocracy.

 2. Truman. Almost a proletarian childhood.

 3. Eisenhower. Proletarian childhood (father was a rail hand).

 4. JFK. As advantaged as one could be for a Roman Catholic.

 5. LBJ. Solidly middle-class.

 6. Nixon. Barely middle-class

 7. Ford. Upper-middle.

 8. Carter. Nearly aristocratic. Southern aristocrats are like that.

 9. Reagan. Shaky middle-class.

10. George Herbert Walker Bush.  Every advantage in childhood, much like FDR

11. Clinton. Middle-class by Arkansas standards.

12. George W. Bush. See Daddy.

13. Obama. Fits Paul Fussell's "Category X"... all over the map.  

I'm sure that some white people checked to see that their car doors were locked when they saw him.  

Oh, by the way, a huge correction -- Occidental University is not in greater Los Angeles; it is in Stockton, California.  Stockton is best described as the "New Haven of California" -- a very raw city with a well-respected university. Stockton is much closer (about 90 miles) from San Francisco and about 350 miles from Los Angeles.

[pbrower2a]

I wish that Quinnipiac would "do" Indiana some time. That state has about the most mysterious politics.

[pbrower2a]

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism.  That can be expected from someone who never governed a large entity or served in any executive capacity.  He tried to be Reagan without the management experience.  I wonder if the "enthusiasm gap" has trickled down to his supporters, it certainly seems the enthusiasm gap is missing from his closest family members, his wife and children - if they don't want him to be president, how can the rest of the country want him to be president.  I really think unless the GOP nominates a geriatric, they will win in a Landslide, similar to the reverse of 2008.  The issues have changed from foreign policy to domestic policy. 

He now has that management experience, having done about the biggest managerial job that there is. GOP landslide? You must have been looking at the color scheme and misreading it. Enthusiasm gap? The campaign has yet  to start.

It's the Republicans who are enduring the enthusiasm gap. It is going to hurt them badly.

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Dubya feels their pain? I am laughing so hard that I could vomit. People want better lives, and they don't care whether they get it through "big government". Big Business has failed them badly, as have its stooges in the Reactionary Party. High gas prices (and that hurts everyone not invested in or working in oil) have not resulted from any legislation but instead through the behavior of free-market speculators. No legislation can stop speculators from cornering the market -- and if anything, those speculators have good friends in the GOP.

Nobody likes high taxes. But they don't want the consequences of failed government -- poor public services or the privatization of public services from a public trust into a monopolistic gouge, either. Sure, President Obama does not relate well to blue-collar white workers, as shown in 2008. But he won without them in 2008 and can obviously win again as the polls now show that he can.

He is not the new Bill Clinton; he can't be. He's not from the culture that Bill Clinton came from.  He is far better than Dubya, that "ranch cowboy" who certainly treated the common man like cattle.

 

[pbrower2a]

Obama at 43%

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20110615.pdf

But he would still beat all Republican challengers.

The Republicans are doing practically nothing to satisfy voters other than the base.

[pbrower2a]

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 

You say more about yourself than about the President. Such is projection.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling Florida and Montana next week. Florida is of course about as definitive a swing state as there is, and Montana is just simply intriguing.

Michigan, anyone?

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?

[pbrower2a]

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?

How about Pennsylvania next time?

Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania and showed that the state no longer looks as if it is slipping away from the President.  Oregon was polled recently, too.

Indiana would be the gem of states for polling. I'd like to know  whether Mitch Daniels has the same problems in maintaining approval that governors of Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin have in gaining it. In view of all the talk that some posters have on Mitch Daniels as a potential President... whether he would win his 'own' state like John Thune or Jim DeMint, or whether he would lose 'his' state like Michelle Bachmann or Tim Pawlenty. I'd like to know whether Senator Lugar faces and is up to a primary challenge by Tea Party types. Above all, I would like to know whether my cautious estimate that 2008 was a freakish scenario in which everything went wrong for the Republican Party -- once -- or whether Indiana is simply the last state in the northeastern quadrant of the United States  to go from Republican to Democratic.   

But -- Indiana bans the robot polls that PPP and Rasmussen use.  Polls of Indiana were rare in 2008, and the last poll that anyone had of Indiana was in the autumn of 2010. 

[pbrower2a]

This will be posted, if at all, with the letter "S" as in "suspect". It likely overrates approvals for both Governor Rick Perry and President Barack Obama, and it is slow to be released.

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I don't really trust any poll involving Texas.

[pbrower2a]

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?

How about Pennsylvania next time?

Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania and showed that the state no longer looks as if it is slipping away from the President. 

I think it showed it was close.

It was as close as it could get -- dead even at 48%. But that is before any campaigning, and we all know what an effective campaigner President Obama is and how good a campaign apparatus he had in 2008 -- probably enough to add about 6% to the pre-campaign approval rating to get to the likely vote share.

He would probably win about 54% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania, which is close to what he won in 2008 -- close enough that few would know the difference.

[pbrower2a]

The range of polling results for Texas is... well, as big as Texas. I may have a Texas-sized whopper here. I'll show the results of the Texas Lyceum poll and then what I really think of its reliability. Basically Texas goes from the sure thing for Republicans to "Nobody really knows".

Texas, if close, implies that President Obama has about a Clinton-scale landslide if he loses the state and about an Eisenhower-scale landslide if he wins it.  Such is the meaning of 38 electoral votes.

Current map:
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 26
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

[pbrower2a]

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 

You say more about yourself than about the President. Such is projection.

Why did you attribute that quote to me, since I called the race wide open and doubt that Obama is resigned to anything at this point?

It is to milhouse. Ordinarily it is the last statement that is the kicker.

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee (Vanderbilt):

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

With 700 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 %.

The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline telephone numbers over a period of six days – from June 3 through June 8.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110619/NEWS/306190050/Obama-holds-lead-over-GOP-hopefuls-Tennessee

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The large number of undecided in most matchups  leaves some questions unanswered. Nonetheless, all Republicans are faring badly as potential opponents to President Obama, and all Republicans except Mitt Romney would lose this state big to President Obama.  I look at these numbers and I see President Obama having a reasonably good chance of beating a fairly-strong Republican or at least someone (Huckabee would probably have fit) in tune with the culture.  But even with these numbers I at the least see President Obama faring better than Al Gore did in what was supposedly Gore's state.

This should scare Republicans: Barack Obama lost this state -- big -- in 2008. If President Obama can win Tennessee, then he has a good chance of winning over 400 electoral votes. Should President Obama win back the sorts of voters who went to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but to Dubya or McCain in the Double-Zero Decade, then President Obama is on his way to an Eisenhower-scale electoral victory in popular and electoral votes.

Tennessee looked as if it offered a marginal chance for an Obama victory back in February, so this doesn't seem so off the wall as it did. Maybe the Texas Lyceum poll isn't so off-the-wall as I first thought, too. But that said, the five states that President Obama got clobbered in that Bill Clinton won twice (Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia) together have about as many electoral votes as Texas.  


Current map:


 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

[pbrower2a]

I'm beginning to wonder whether the Texas Lyceum poll in the Texas Tribune is as off-the-wall as I thought it was. The unsettling oddity is that the Governor still has strong approval ratings while the President does, without really-good times for Texans. Rick Perry and Barack Obama could hardly be more different.

 

[pbrower2a]

This poll should surprise nobody:

Field, California:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/20/MN7C1JVHTE.DTL#ixzz1Pp1cDjx5
 


Current map:


 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey, 50-46

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615

PPP just released a report on Montana, but not on the Presidency.
 


Current map:


 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OR_0623513.pdf

Definitely not consistent with the vote of 2008, but Oregon is the sort of state that snookers Republicans into flooding the state with political money only to turn against the money.

Current map:


 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling Texas and New Mexico next week.

[pbrower2a]

Obama at 38% and only 41% want him re-elect

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/mid/1508/ArticleId/824/Default.aspx

Interactive polls are worthless.