The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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J. J.
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« Reply #8100 on: June 14, 2011, 07:13:59 PM »
« edited: June 14, 2011, 07:17:07 PM by J. J. »



It is simply not true that Obama has never held a blue collar job and has never worked in the private sector--he has done both.  He has also devoted a significant portion of his young life to helping poor people, giving up a much higher-wage position to do so.  Find me a Republican who has done anything like that, and I promise I will listen attentively to anything they have to say.



It is true that Obama never had a blue collar job, but neither did either Bush or Clinton.  Reagan's was limited to working during high school.  All had white collar jobs.

What is also true is that, of the people listed, Obama had little administrative experience, or true executive experience.

His first job out of college was working for a financial newsletter, helping disadvantaged Yuppies, and the bulk of his professional life, was as an elected official, or a law school instructor, the latter being the the longest private sector position he held (12 years). 
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anvi
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« Reply #8101 on: June 14, 2011, 07:35:26 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2011, 07:38:43 PM by anvikshiki »

In the late 70's, during high school, Obama worked for Baskin Robins, then as a deli clerk.  In 1980, when he started attending college, he worked as a gift shop sales clerk, then one summer was a construction worker on the Upper West Side of New York, after which he spent some time working for a private company that processed health records for policemen.  During his late college years in the early '80's, he worked as a telemarketer.  From 1983-84, after graduating, he was a research associate for Business International Corporation in New York, after which he briefly worked for a non-profit and then became a community organizer.  Following that, during and after law school, Obama's law and teaching careers began before he was elected to the Illinois State Senate.  Pretty regular jobs for a high school and college student and then graduate, but jobs, blue collar and white collar, nonetheless.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/apr/15/joe-scarborough/heres-scoop-obama-has-worked-ice-cream-business-am/
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J. J.
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« Reply #8102 on: June 14, 2011, 08:58:13 PM »

In the late 70's, during high school, Obama worked for Baskin Robins, then as a deli clerk.  In 1980, when he started attending college, he worked as a gift shop sales clerk, then one summer was a construction worker on the Upper West Side of New York, after which he spent some time working for a private company that processed health records for policemen.  During his late college years in the early '80's, he worked as a telemarketer.  From 1983-84, after graduating, he was a research associate for Business International Corporation in New York, after which he briefly worked for a non-profit and then became a community organizer.  Following that, during and after law school, Obama's law and teaching careers began before he was elected to the Illinois State Senate.  Pretty regular jobs for a high school and college student and then graduate, but jobs, blue collar and white collar, nonetheless.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/apr/15/joe-scarborough/heres-scoop-obama-has-worked-ice-cream-business-am/

Not full time jobs and more along the lines of an after school newspaper route.  I wouldn't even classify Reagan, who did work after school, as being blue collar.

Note well that I indicated that that I was referring to "blue collar" jobs, and using the term liberally, and did not say that he didn't hold a private sector job.


It is true that Obama never had a blue collar job, but neither did either Bush or Clinton.  Reagan's was limited to working during high school.  All had white collar jobs.

I also noted, correctly, that the longest private sector job he held was a college instructor.

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That certainly is not unusual, but it is fundamentally dishonest to say that Obama (or Reagan, Clinton, or the Bushes) were blue collar.  I would not class myself as blue collar either.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8103 on: June 14, 2011, 09:20:18 PM »

Respectfully, a few brief replies.

Presidents should be willing to make politically costly decisions if they believe these decisions are truly the right things to do.  There are actually more important things in the world than any president serving two terms.  Though president Bush '41 only served one term, he did so honorably, and I'm very glad it was him at that helm when the Cold War came to an end and Hussein invaded Kuwait.  If guaranteed issue survives in the health insurance industry in our future, I think lots of people will be glad Obama was there to insist on it during his term in the future.

There is more -- much more. If Barack Obama should be a one-term President, he will have achieved more in two years than some Presidents have achieved in two full terms.  Much credit would have to be shared with the 111th Congress, but that is fair. If he should be a one-term President it will be for reasons vastly different from those of Taft (ill-suited for the Presidency), Hoover (came in just as an economic meltdown was about to begin and did just about everything wrong), Ford (had no idea of how to campaign for the Presidency), Carter (few legislative achievements), or the elder Bush (had no idea of what to do in a Second Term).

Not all of the Obama agenda can be undone.

  
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Military life wasn't exactly lucrative (Eisenhower), and Hoover at the least put much effort into relief of hunger in Europe (although after he had made a fortune in the mining industry). But any 'communication' with them will have to be one-sided, as those two have been dead since the 1960s.  

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President Barack Obama does not understand small-town life. But he does understand life in Urban America and Suburban America -- where the people are.  He understands Suburbia as Republicans don't any more. It is not enough for Republicans to expect people to vote as their bosses suggest because in this economic climate, people have good cause not to trust their bosses. Tax cuts and regulatory relief are no longer enough to induce moderates to vote for the Hard Right.

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Short of a massive tax-and-spend program that can effectively stimulate the economy through big public-works projects, nobody is up to the task of inducing a quick economic recovery. The Republicans seem to act as if the way to get economic growth is through lower wages, tax cuts for the super-rich, permissive treatment of environmental damage and workplace safety, and of course corporate power over employees that easily translates to abject fear.

Beyond any question it is possible to get quick growth with starvation wages and 60-70 hour workweeks as in China about 30 years ago, but that would imply that things have gone very bad from very good conditions. I can't see many people liking that, and the only way in which many Americans would tolerate that is if they had suddenly been reduced to such poverty in the aftermath of a nuclear war.  

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J. J.
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« Reply #8104 on: June 14, 2011, 09:26:34 PM »

I frankly doubt that Obama, or anyone else on this board, really understands Urban America.
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« Reply #8105 on: June 14, 2011, 09:30:19 PM »

That's cool, but you also believe the Bradley Effect is a real thing, so I don't know how much worth I place in your assessment, especially considering that Obama has spent most of his life living and working in urban America.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8106 on: June 14, 2011, 09:58:23 PM »

That's cool, but you also believe the Bradley Effect is a real thing, so I don't know how much worth I place in your assessment, especially considering that Obama has spent most of his life living and working in urban America.

Not in the urban America I live in; most of the folks here don't grand mommies that are bank vice presidents, a daddy with an advanced degree from Harvard, a mommy with a doctorate (okay, a silly one), or a step daddy that was an oil company executive... you get the point.

Now Michelle Obama is different.

In all honestly, rural America is a lot like urban America.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8107 on: June 14, 2011, 10:24:08 PM »

This really is stupid reasoning... but it won't stop it coming.
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anvi
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« Reply #8108 on: June 14, 2011, 10:28:59 PM »

Not in the urban America I live in; most of the folks here don't grand mommies that are bank vice presidents, a daddy with an advanced degree from Harvard, a mommy with a doctorate (okay, a silly one), or a step daddy that was an oil company executive... you get the point.

Obama's grandmother, a housewife when Obama moved in with them, took a job at the bank in Honolulu when Obama was in his mid-to-late teens because her husband was a busted insurance salesman, and worked her way to the vice-presidency of the bank later, something which you obviously begrudge.  Obama got nothing from his father but letters and a short visit when he was a boy.  Obama's mother married Soetero when he was still a student and when Obama was 6, and by the time he started working for an oil company, she left him and sent Obama to his grandparents when he was ten, so he didn't get much from that either.  I don't know what label I would give Obama in terms of class, but what's "fundamentally dishonest" is implying, as you do with the misleading characterization you spew above, that he was born in the lap of luxury.

But, whatever.  Obfuscating things is obviously your specialty, so I will let you go back to what you're good at, the daily reproduction of poll numbers.        
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J. J.
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« Reply #8109 on: June 14, 2011, 11:45:13 PM »

Not in the urban America I live in; most of the folks here don't grand mommies that are bank vice presidents, a daddy with an advanced degree from Harvard, a mommy with a doctorate (okay, a silly one), or a step daddy that was an oil company executive... you get the point.

Obama's grandmother, a housewife when Obama moved in with them, took a job at the bank in Honolulu when Obama was in his mid-to-late teens because her husband was a busted insurance salesman, and worked her way to the vice-presidency of the bank later, something which you obviously begrudge.

She became the bank vice president in 1970, after being with the bank for ten years.  I don't "begrudge" it. I just think we should be honest about it. This was not some "poor fatherless kid" but someone growing up in upper middle class household.  Obama's "mid to late teens" would 4-5 years after she had the position.

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Try meeting him at age two; they were married in 1965, several years later.  While he worked in Indonesia, Obama's mother completed her degree.  In the first years in Indonesia, they both worked (just like Bill Gates' parents).

As someone who went to a 99% white public high school in a rural area at the same time as Obama, I can tell you that he was a much more prosperous 99% if not 100% of the people I was with.  In terms of my current urban neighborhood, his upbringing was more prosperous that that of anyone on my street.

Now, I certainly have not suggested that this is the "lap of luxury" but it certainly was never blue collar; his family was not poor.  He was not in a position where he could expect to live off his trust fund or where he could just wait to inherit and never have to worry about money again.  He certainly wasn't from a poor family either.  It is fundamentally dishonest to suggest otherwise. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8110 on: June 15, 2011, 12:26:56 AM »

PPP/DailyKos/SEIU Weekly Poll:

49% Approve
49% Disapprove

51% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, June 9, 2011 - June 12, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/6/9
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« Reply #8111 on: June 15, 2011, 07:58:58 AM »

Not in the urban America I live in; most of the folks here don't grand mommies that are bank vice presidents, a daddy with an advanced degree from Harvard, a mommy with a doctorate (okay, a silly one), or a step daddy that was an oil company executive... you get the point.

Obama's grandmother, a housewife when Obama moved in with them, took a job at the bank in Honolulu when Obama was in his mid-to-late teens because her husband was a busted insurance salesman, and worked her way to the vice-presidency of the bank later, something which you obviously begrudge.  Obama got nothing from his father but letters and a short visit when he was a boy.  Obama's mother married Soetero when he was still a student and when Obama was 6, and by the time he started working for an oil company, she left him and sent Obama to his grandparents when he was ten, so he didn't get much from that either.  I don't know what label I would give Obama in terms of class, but what's "fundamentally dishonest" is implying, as you do with the misleading characterization you spew above, that he was born in the lap of luxury.

But, whatever.  Obfuscating things is obviously your specialty, so I will let you go back to what you're good at, the daily reproduction of poll numbers.        


^^^^ this. I generally try to avoid "me too" posts (well, try to at least Tongue), but your premise has crossed the line from silly to fantasy, J.J. Mock Obama's background as a community organizer vs. being a high-powered hedge fund manager as which is better background for being president and "helping" your "urban America", but give credit where reality dictates credit is due re: Obama's background and training.

For crissakes, dude, what would it take for you to say Obama is familiar with urban American? Getting beat in to the Rolling 60's Bloods?
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J. J.
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« Reply #8112 on: June 15, 2011, 08:49:19 AM »



^^^^ this. I generally try to avoid "me too" posts (well, try to at least Tongue), but your premise has crossed the line from silly to fantasy, J.J. Mock Obama's background as a community organizer vs. being a high-powered hedge fund manager as which is better background for being president and "helping" your "urban America", but give credit where reality dictates credit is due re: Obama's background and training.

For crissakes, dude, what would it take for you to say Obama is familiar with urban American? Getting beat in to the Rolling 60's Bloods?

I don't "mock" his being an organizer, and noted, a., his first job (which I actually think is kind of impressive as a first job) and b., his longest held position.  If you would read my posts, you would note that I didn't mention community organizer until now.

As for his background as part of of "urban America," no, not even close.  Now, I can say the same for every post World War Two President.  Likewise, Obama was never blue collar nor was background "working class," nor was he "living in the lap of luxury."  His background was upper middle class, not as low as some presidents, nor as high as others.  I just think we should be honest about it.

Is he out of touch?  Possibly, but that isn't the question I'm addressing.  Is he part of the the urban black middle to lower middle class experience in America?  No, but neither was anyone else that was president (call me when Deval Patrick gets the job).
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J. J.
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« Reply #8113 on: June 15, 2011, 08:58:44 AM »
« Edited: June 15, 2011, 10:46:54 AM by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

A slight loss in the past week.
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« Reply #8114 on: June 15, 2011, 10:16:52 AM »

Places Obama has lived:

Honolulu (Age 0-6)
Jakarta (6-10)
Honolulu (10-18)
Los Angeles (18-20)
New York City (20-24)
Chicago (24-27)
Cambridge, w/ Chicago in the summers (27-30)
Chicago (30-48)
Washington (48-present)

Cambridge isn't urban, I guess you can argue Honolulu isn't urban enough, but everywhere else on that list is clearly and unarguably urban. Most of those cities, actually, are more populated and more densely populated than the city you live in.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8115 on: June 15, 2011, 10:21:04 AM »
« Edited: June 15, 2011, 12:38:09 PM by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1611

About two months ago, President Obama could have been projected to lose Pennsylvania against Romney but win against anyone else. That is over. Although approval of the president matches disapproval, the President now leads Romney in a likely matchup for now by a 7-point margin. Such is consistent with the usual built-in advantage for an incumbent of roughly 6%. It would take an extremely strong challenger to defeat President Obama in Pennsylvania, and this is with the Republicans making significant inroads into popularity in the state.

The President will have to do some campaigning in the Keystone State, but it looks as if he would win by just less than he did in 2008. I can now project that the President would win re-election with about the same number of electoral votes as he won in 2008, basically winning every state that he won in 2008 except perhaps Indiana (which I cautiously pick to be a GOP pickup in the absence of polling because of the prior voting of the state) and Nevada (although the April poll is likely obsolete, in view of polls in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania). The President picks up Georgia, though, and seems to have about an even shot at winning Arizona, Missouri, and South Carolina.  This is against Mitt Romney. Against a weaker nominee the President wins a  landslide in electoral and probably popular votes by picking up Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, and likely more. I of course assume that the President holds onto Delaware, Illinois, and Vermont.

Quinnipiac, Connecticut.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1612

More solid than in March.
  



Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 36
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 26
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  

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J. J.
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« Reply #8116 on: June 15, 2011, 10:58:55 AM »

Places Obama has lived:

Honolulu (Age 0-6)
Jakarta (6-10)
Honolulu (10-18)
Los Angeles (18-20)
New York City (20-24)
Chicago (24-27)
Cambridge, w/ Chicago in the summers (27-30)
Chicago (30-48)
Washington (48-present)

Cambridge isn't urban, I guess you can argue Honolulu isn't urban enough, but everywhere else on that list is clearly and unarguably urban. Most of those cities, actually, are more populated and more densely populated than the city you live in.

Jakarta certainly isn't an American urban center, and living in the White House or a Harvard certainly is not living in North Philly.  Roll Eyes 

As I've said, unlike others I have mentioned, he never was part of the urban experience (neither was GWB's living in Austin, or RWR's living in the Greater LA area (possibly in LA)).

I'm not being critical of it, but let's be honest about it.  Obama wasn't from the most advantaged background of any post WW II president, but he wasn't the least advantaged either.
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« Reply #8117 on: June 15, 2011, 11:01:01 AM »

How the f is living in LA, NYC and Chicago from age 18-48 not "part of the urban experience"?! You realize those are the three most populous urban centers in the country right?!
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J. J.
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« Reply #8118 on: June 15, 2011, 11:21:48 AM »

How the f is living in LA, NYC and Chicago from age 18-48 not "part of the urban experience"?! You realize those are the three most populous urban centers in the country right?!

Simple, when I refer to urban in regard to class, I'm referring to a generally working class or poor neighborhood, usually with a concentration of one or two ethnic groups (but excluding WASP's), but not necessarily black. 

By your definition, Beverly Hills is urban, and Ronald Reagan lived in the 'hood.  If you want to someone who is urban in background, look at Deval Patrick (or Michelle Obama), or even Marco Rubio.

There is nothing wrong with having an urban (or upper middle class) background, but let's be honest about it.
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« Reply #8119 on: June 15, 2011, 11:30:29 AM »

So only people who live in the ghetto know what life in urban America is like. Okay bro, cool.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8120 on: June 15, 2011, 11:33:07 AM »

So only people who live in the ghetto know what life in urban America is like. Okay bro, cool.

The others tend to be Yuppies. 
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« Reply #8121 on: June 15, 2011, 11:35:19 AM »
« Edited: June 15, 2011, 12:21:47 PM by pbrower2a »

Places Obama has lived:

Honolulu (Age 0-6)
Jakarta (6-10)
Honolulu (10-18)
Los Angeles (18-20)
New York City (20-24)
Chicago (24-27)
Cambridge, w/ Chicago in the summers (27-30)
Chicago (30-48)
Washington (48-present)

Cambridge isn't urban, I guess you can argue Honolulu isn't urban enough, but everywhere else on that list is clearly and unarguably urban. Most of those cities, actually, are more populated and more densely populated than the city you live in.

Jakarta certainly isn't an American urban center, and living in the White House or a Harvard certainly is not living in North Philly.  Roll Eyes  

As I've said, unlike others I have mentioned, he never was part of the urban experience (neither was GWB's living in Austin, or RWR's living in the Greater LA area (possibly in LA)).

I'm not being critical of it, but let's be honest about it.  Obama wasn't from the most advantaged background of any post WW II president, but he wasn't the least advantaged either.

Cambridge, Massachusetts  is at least suburban.

What Presidents were more or less advantaged than Obama... beginning with FDR?

 1. FDR. Patrician, would be an aristocrat if America recognized aristocracy.

 2. Truman. Almost a proletarian childhood.

 3. Eisenhower. Proletarian childhood (father was a rail hand).

 4. JFK. As advantaged as one could be for a Roman Catholic.

 5. LBJ. Solidly middle-class.

 6. Nixon. Barely middle-class

 7. Ford. Upper-middle.

 8. Carter. Nearly aristocratic. Southern aristocrats are like that.

 9. Reagan. Shaky middle-class.

10. George Herbert Walker Bush.  Every advantage in childhood, much like FDR

11. Clinton. Middle-class by Arkansas standards.

12. George W. Bush. See Daddy.

13. Obama. Fits Paul Fussell's "Category X"... all over the map.  

I'm sure that some white people checked to see that their car doors were locked when they saw him.  

Oh, by the way, a huge correction -- Occidental University is not in greater Los Angeles; it is in Stockton, California.  Stockton is best described as the "New Haven of California" -- a very raw city with a well-respected university. Stockton is much closer (about 90 miles) from San Francisco and about 350 miles from Los Angeles.
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« Reply #8122 on: June 15, 2011, 11:38:53 AM »

So only people who live in the ghetto know what life in urban America is like. Okay bro, cool.

The others tend to be Yuppies. 

Right, and those people aren't real American city dwellers so their experiences don't count. Got it.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #8123 on: June 15, 2011, 12:11:13 PM »

Technically, Barack Obama lived in Somerville, MA. At precisely this address.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8124 on: June 15, 2011, 12:33:36 PM »

Connecticut (Quinnipiac)Sad

53% Approve
44% Disapprove

President Obama deserves reelection, voters say 51 - 43 percent, and they would vote for Obama 46 - 35 percent over an unnamed Republican in 2012.

From June 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,311 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1612
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