🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[KaiserDave]

Note: I am not pleased with these results of course, hoping the numbers end up tilting towards the SPD

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1442159725919932420?s=21

[KaiserDave]

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

[KaiserDave]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

[KaiserDave]

Four more years of having to stand in line to change my address, i guess 🤷‍♂️

What's your take on these results?

[KaiserDave]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

I don't think this is a bad result for the SPD, given that they are poised to be the largest party, especially when early polls had them fading into irrelevance. Maybe it's a bad result compared to the 70s and 80s, but I'm not sure that really matters.

[KaiserDave]

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Very speculative

[KaiserDave]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Very easy for the poll to be 3 seats off

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

[KaiserDave]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

I don't think this is a bad result for the SPD, given that they are poised to be the largest party, especially when early polls had them fading into irrelevance. Maybe it's a bad result compared to the 70s and 80s, but I'm not sure that really matters.

"Barely 4 points over their worst result in all of history" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. We can play expectations game all we want with pre-election polls, but in the end, there are long-term trends at play, and a 4-point blip doesn't really change them.

I'm very skeptical of these long term trends, Greens could easily collapse in 2025, we'll see.

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

https://twitter.com/anjk/status/1442165212543549441?s=21

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

[KaiserDave]

Union has no mandate to govern

[KaiserDave]

Any sites with map results? I'm a sucker for maps

[KaiserDave]

Well at least RRG doesn't have the numbers.

Not necessarily

[KaiserDave]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

no

[KaiserDave]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

no

[KaiserDave]

Updated ZDF exit, its narrowing
SPD 25,6
Union 24,4
Greens 14,7
FDP 11,6
AFD 10,3
LINKE 5

Fake news. I already projected SPD being underestimated.

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

I will now accept my accolades!

[KaiserDave]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Speculation, speculation.
This is dooming without reason. There is no reason to believe the FDP will be able to dictate the terms of coalition.

[KaiserDave]

Seems notable that the Union map is now essentially the same as a Zentrum map from the inter war years. Or a map of Catholicism.

Ah, things as they should be. Next we need Die Linke to come back in Kreuzberg.

[KaiserDave]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Speculation, speculation.
This is dooming without reason. There is no reason to believe the FDP will be able to dictate the terms of coalition.

Since when is it speculation to presume that a party that's necessary for the formation of a coalition will wanna dictate the terms that are necessary for them to join said coalition? That seems like basic parliamentary politics 101.

They can dictate some terms, but the idea that they would be in the drivers seat or have very substantial power to block the entire SPD economic agenda is fanciful. And the idea that neither of these options could lead to further success is speculation, speculation.