How low can it go? - Predict Trump's net approval rating when he leaves office

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Net Approval Rating on the day Donald Trump leaves office can be taken by subtracting the Disapproval rating from the approval rating (among all polls). At the time I write this, at January 11, 2021, Donald Trump's approval rating on the FiveThirtyEight tracker is 40.7% and his disapproval rating is 54.7%. This gives a net approval rating currently of -14.0%. It's also rounded to the nearest tenth so don't worry about the hundredths place (when has that ever mattered lol).

For context, here are the historic lows and highs.

Creating this poll - January 11, 2021: -14.0% Net Approval (54.7% Disapprove 40.7% Approve)

All time low - December 15, 2017: -20.9% Net Approval (57.4% Disapprove 36.5% Approve)

All time high - January 25, 2017: +5.3% Net Approval (42.5% Disapprove 47.8% Approve)

Government shutdown low point - January 26, 2019: -16.7% (56.0% Disapprove 39.3% Approve)

COVID-19 high point - April 01, 2020: -3.9% Net Approval (49.7% Disapprove 45.9% Approve)

Post COVID-19 low point - June 30, 2020: -16.1% Net Approval (56.4% Disapprove 40.3% Approve)

Election Day approval rating - November 03, 2020: -8.0% Net Approval (52.6% Disapprove 44.6% Approve)

If you get it right you can get a cookie. 🍪

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Seriously, Rasmussen (which is clearly making up numbers) will keep it from dropping below -18 or so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I thought Donald Trump had his highest approval after his COVID diagnosis back in October.

No, there was a brief spike for him in October, but it was far from his best.  That occurred right after his inauguration in 2017 (the only time when he's been above water).

[GeorgiaModerate]

We are now seeing for first time Bidens approval dip below 50, it's at 48 percent. The D's must be careful about criticizing Trump, Biden approval is 48-37, the same as Trump before he lost the Election.

The D's are gonna spend tax payers money on an impreachment trial. Now, that the insurrection is over, a censure resolution is much better with a Impeachment that doesn't have witnesses

Biden doesn't have an approval rating since he's not president yet.  His net favorability hasn't changed much since November 3rd according to the RCP average (currently 49.7 fav / 43.2 unfav):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html

There are some Biden approval polls already, and there's a pinned Biden approval ratings thread in this forum.  Some of these are approval of Biden's job with the transition specifically, while others are the more general "approval of the job President-Elect Biden is doing" type.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Right around 50%

Per Rasmussen Reports, probably

Approval ratings tend to rise as time goes by.  It might start off a bit lower but it will level off around there.

You do realize we're talking about *Trump*, right?  The one who's leaving office in 8 days?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump lost a few points in overall job approval in this week's Economist/YouGov tracker.  But they also ask a question for "transition job approval", and he cratered on that one.  Full details in my post in the Biden approval thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1349845509616381956

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC News/Washington Post, Jan. 10-13, 1002 adults (change from October)

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 60 (+6)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 52 (+7)

Trump is now at 39.1/57.0 (net -17.9) in the 538 average.  He's within striking distance of the worst net of his term.

71% think Trump bears at least some responsibility for the attack on the Capitol.  54% think he should be charged with inciting a riot.

Comparison of final approval ratings:

Trump 38
Obama 60
GW Bush 33
Clinton 65
GHW Bush 56

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1350102667067076614

58.0% disapproval is the highest of Trump's tenure.  His approval has been a bit lower (the extreme is 36.4% on 12/16/2017).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen continues to live in an alternate reality.

I don't think there's any way to dispute now that Rasmussen makes up their numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen continues to live in an alternate reality.

I don't think there's any way to dispute now that Rasmussen makes up their numbers.

Much as I want to believe this, and there is at least some tangible basis for belief, let's not forget the 2016 and 2020 polls note Ali under estimating Trump's support. As someone succinctly put it, a Swing Vote wine mom in Suburban Charlotte was more likely to answer and respond to a pollsters call then Cletus from rural Appalachia.

Still, Trump is still clearly hemorrhaging support. How low will it go? That honestly depends primarily on to what degree heat attempts shady s*** with pardons. Note I didn't say if he tries it, but rather to what degree. Will he limit it to merely himself and his family as is almost guaranteed to occur, or will he extend it two cronies and sink offense or, worst of all, most or all of the capitol rioters?

This is the key to it.  Every other poll shows Trump hemorrhaging support badly in the last week or so.  Rasmussen since the beginning of last week:

1/4: No polling (New Year's)
1/5: 47/51
1/6: 47/51
1/7: 49/50
1/8: 48/50

1/11: 48/51
1/12: 49/50
1/13: 46/53
1/14: No poll, technical issue
1/15: 48/52

Even if Rasmussen is picking up Trump voters that everyone else misses, it is unrealistic that they do not show a decline for Trump when literally every other poll is showing a steep one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another tidbit from the Pew poll:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1350217421538398210

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Jan. 9-14, 1003 adults (change from late October)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 62 (+7)

This is Trump's worst-ever showing in this poll.  The previous low was 35/59 in Dec. 2017.

54% think Trump should be removed from office; 43% don't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News, Jan. 10-13, 1000 RV (change from late Oct.)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 32 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+2)

Not as much movement as in most other polls, but worth noting that this has always been Trump's best among the high-quality polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk University, Jan. 12-15, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Biden:

Approve 46
Disapprove 29

Trump:

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

If Donald Trump ran for the White House in 2024, would you vote for him?

Yes 23
No 60
Maybe 14

How do you think history will assess Donald Trump - would you say he will be viewed as a great president, a good president, a
fair president, or a failed president?

Great 15
Good 10
Fair 11
Failed 58

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Jan. 10-13, 1023 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-5)
Disapprove 62 (+5)

This is Trump's worst-ever showing from Gallup.  He exits office as the only President to never reach 50% approval in their poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 15-17, 1131 RV (1-week change)

Approve 34 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 55 (+1)

Do you think President Trump should be allowed to hold elected office in the future, or not?

Yes 38
No 59

[GeorgiaModerate]

Grumps, I think you may have misunderstood the question.  It asked what Trump's approval rating would be on his last day in office, i.e. today -- not what it might eventually be after he's been out of office for a while.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Jan. 16-19, 1100 adults including 990 RV

Adults:

Approve 30 (-11)
Disapprove 66 (+10)

RV:

Approve 29
Disapprove 67

This is Trump's worst-ever showing, by far, in this poll.