How low can it go? - Predict Trump's net approval rating when he leaves office
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  How low can it go? - Predict Trump's net approval rating when he leaves office
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Poll
Question: Predict what Donald Trump's Net Approval Rating will be when he leaves office (whenever that may be) on FiveThirtyEight's approval rating tracker.At the time of the making of this poll, it's at -14.0%.
#1
+5.0% or more (all time high (just after inauguration))
 
#2
0.0% to +4.9%
 
#3
-0.1% to -4.9% (COVID-19 high point)
 
#4
-5.0% to -9.9% (election day 2020)
 
#5
-10.0% to -11.9%
 
#6
-12.0% to -13.9%
 
#7
-14.0% to -15.9% (as of making of poll)
 
#8
-16.0% to -17.9% (government shutdown low point and post-COVID low point)
 
#9
-18.0% to -19.9%
 
#10
-20.0% to -21.9% (all-time low before this poll (in 2017))
 
#11
-22.0% to -23.9%
 
#12
-24.0% to -25.9%
 
#13
-26.0% to -27.9%
 
#14
-28.0% to -29.9%
 
#15
-30.0% to -34.9%
 
#16
-35.0% to -39.9%
 
#17
-40.0% or less
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 69

Author Topic: How low can it go? - Predict Trump's net approval rating when he leaves office  (Read 8990 times)
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Abdullah
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« on: January 11, 2021, 10:08:18 PM »
« edited: January 18, 2021, 05:02:40 PM by WAYNE-MESSAM-LANDSLIDE-2024 »

The Net Approval Rating on the day Donald Trump leaves office can be taken by subtracting the Disapproval rating from the approval rating (among all polls). At the time I write this, at January 11, 2021, Donald Trump's approval rating on the FiveThirtyEight tracker is 40.7% and his disapproval rating is 54.7%. This gives a net approval rating currently of -14.0%. It's also rounded to the nearest tenth so don't worry about the hundredths place (when has that ever mattered lol).

For context, here are the historic lows and highs.

JAN 25, 2017: +5.3% Net Approval - All time high

DEC 15, 2017: -20.9% Net Approval - All time low

JAN 26, 2019: -16.7% Net Approval - Government shutdown low point

APR 01, 2020: -3.9% Net Approval - COVID-19 high point (early on when there were few cases)

JUN 30, 2020: -16.1% Net Approval - COVID-19 and BLM protests low point

NOV 03, 2020: -8.0% Net Approval - Election Day 2020

JAN 11, 2021: -14.0% Net Approval - Date this poll was created

If you get it right you can get a cookie. 🍪

---

I guessed -26.0% to -27.9%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2021, 10:37:55 PM »

The Net Approval Rating on the day Donald Trump leaves office can be taken by subtracting the Disapproval rating from the approval rating (among all polls). At the time I write this, at January 11, 2021, Donald Trump's approval rating on the FiveThirtyEight tracker is 40.7% and his disapproval rating is 54.7%. This gives a net approval rating currently of -14.0%. It's also rounded to the nearest tenth so don't worry about the hundredths place (when has that ever mattered lol).

For context, here are the historic lows and highs.

Creating this poll - January 11, 2021: -14.0% Net Approval (54.7% Disapprove 40.7% Approve)

All time low - December 15, 2017: -20.9% Net Approval (57.4% Disapprove 36.5% Approve)

All time high - January 25, 2017: +5.3% Net Approval (42.5% Disapprove 47.8% Approve)

Government shutdown low point - January 26, 2019: -16.7% (56.0% Disapprove 39.3% Approve)

COVID-19 high point - April 01, 2020: -3.9% Net Approval (49.7% Disapprove 45.9% Approve)

Post COVID-19 low point - June 30, 2020: -16.1% Net Approval (56.4% Disapprove 40.3% Approve)

Election Day approval rating - November 03, 2020: -8.0% Net Approval (52.6% Disapprove 44.6% Approve)

If you get it right you can get a cookie. 🍪



Sorry, my browser doesn't accept cookies. Smiley

Seriously, Rasmussen (which is clearly making up numbers) will keep it from dropping below -18 or so.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2021, 08:16:42 AM »

Still in the mid-forties.

All Republicans will approve of him, as well as roughly 30% of Independents. All Democrats will disapprove of him, along with the remaining 70% of Independents.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2021, 08:53:29 AM »

I thought Donald Trump had his highest approval after his COVID diagnosis back in October.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2021, 10:03:07 AM »

I thought Donald Trump had his highest approval after his COVID diagnosis back in October.

No, there was a brief spike for him in October, but it was far from his best.  That occurred right after his inauguration in 2017 (the only time when he's been above water).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2021, 10:28:25 AM »

We are now seeing for first time Bidens approval dip below 50, it's at 48 percent. The D's must be careful about criticizing Trump, Biden approval is 48-37, the same as Trump before he lost the Election.

The D's are gonna spend tax payers money on an impreachment trial. Now, that the insurrection is over, a censure resolution is much better with a Impeachment that doesn't have witnesses
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2021, 10:40:26 AM »

We are now seeing for first time Bidens approval dip below 50, it's at 48 percent. The D's must be careful about criticizing Trump, Biden approval is 48-37, the same as Trump before he lost the Election.

The D's are gonna spend tax payers money on an impreachment trial. Now, that the insurrection is over, a censure resolution is much better with a Impeachment that doesn't have witnesses

Biden doesn't have an approval rating since he's not president yet.  His net favorability hasn't changed much since November 3rd according to the RCP average (currently 49.7 fav / 43.2 unfav):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2021, 10:50:12 AM »

We are now seeing for first time Bidens approval dip below 50, it's at 48 percent. The D's must be careful about criticizing Trump, Biden approval is 48-37, the same as Trump before he lost the Election.

The D's are gonna spend tax payers money on an impreachment trial. Now, that the insurrection is over, a censure resolution is much better with a Impeachment that doesn't have witnesses

Biden doesn't have an approval rating since he's not president yet.  His net favorability hasn't changed much since November 3rd according to the RCP average (currently 49.7 fav / 43.2 unfav):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html

There are some Biden approval polls already, and there's a pinned Biden approval ratings thread in this forum.  Some of these are approval of Biden's job with the transition specifically, while others are the more general "approval of the job President-Elect Biden is doing" type.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2021, 04:03:48 PM »

Right around 50%
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2021, 04:06:02 PM »


Per Rasmussen Reports, probably
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2021, 04:20:43 PM »


Approval ratings tend to rise as time goes by.  It might start off a bit lower but it will level off around there.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2021, 04:38:33 PM »


Approval ratings tend to rise as time goes by.  It might start off a bit lower but it will level off around there.

You do realize we're talking about *Trump*, right?  The one who's leaving office in 8 days?
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2021, 04:43:35 PM »


Approval ratings tend to rise as time goes by.  It might start off a bit lower but it will level off around there.

You do realize we're talking about *Trump*, right?  The one who's leaving office in 8 days?

Yep, because I think the 77 million people who voted for him approve.  "War criminal" Bush is polling nicely these days, by the way.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2021, 04:44:48 PM »

Yep, because I think the 77 million people who voted for him approve.  "War criminal" Bush is polling nicely these days, by the way.
Trump got 74 million votes NOT 77.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2021, 04:47:06 PM »

Yep, because I think the 77 million people who voted for him approve.  "War criminal" Bush is polling nicely these days, by the way.
Trump got 74 million votes NOT 77.

Okay okay.....old man memory.  So he'll poll at 49%  Tongue
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Beet
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« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2021, 05:33:20 PM »

Yeah, his approval has really tanked since election day. He is now back to where he was in mid-July 2020, or the very worst of the Ukraine scandal in late 2019.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2021, 07:34:51 PM »

It all comes down to how many Republicans support impeachment and what Fox News does with that information. Trump has a floor to his approval rating due to the devotion of Republicans and Fox is the only thing with the power to break that.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2021, 08:13:39 PM »

33% will be the absolute minimum, even if he nuked half the country. It's far more than he should be getting, still.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2021, 02:33:16 PM »

Trump lost a few points in overall job approval in this week's Economist/YouGov tracker.  But they also ask a question for "transition job approval", and he cratered on that one.  Full details in my post in the Biden approval thread.
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2021, 04:57:39 PM »

Unless he creates new lows in the next 76 business hours (like gets to freezing), get convicted by the senate, or actually goes to jail, he's the frontrunner in 2024.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2021, 05:26:13 PM »

The same as Bush W as he left office
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afleitch
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2021, 05:42:29 PM »

He's tracking close to Carter with 538. Hopefully much lower still.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2021, 05:53:05 PM »


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Crumpets
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« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2021, 05:55:59 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2021, 09:27:41 AM »


ABC News/Washington Post, Jan. 10-13, 1002 adults (change from October)

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 60 (+6)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 52 (+7)

Trump is now at 39.1/57.0 (net -17.9) in the 538 average.  He's within striking distance of the worst net of his term.

71% think Trump bears at least some responsibility for the attack on the Capitol.  54% think he should be charged with inciting a riot.

Comparison of final approval ratings:

Trump 38
Obama 60
GW Bush 33
Clinton 65
GHW Bush 56
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