Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon/status/1468041140649742341

Sir Woodbury 🤝 Twitter Tankies

One struggle

Anyway, Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish, which makes these attempts to turn Ukraine into Nazi Germany 2.0 even more asinine

[GALeftist]

I just wrote a big long post about this in USGD but suffice to say I do think that this could be worth going to war over. Appeasement has historically had disastrous consequences and I am altogether unconvinced that Ukraine is the extent of Russian territorial ambitions.

[GALeftist]

Russia's effectively correct in recognizing territorial integrity as just another tool to keep it down - highlight when convenient for me, ignore when convenient to thee.

This is basically correct, but not all separatist movements are created equal. The Very Fair Crimean Referendum was conducted without a status quo option and with a bunch of Russian soldiers milling about, so I think it's hardly indicative of the popular will in Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk never even got a referendum of any kind. I don't think even an actor who was genuinely committed to the absolute self-determination of peoples would necessarily be compelled by their own logic to support these regions' joining Russia.

Further, I don't think it's unreasonable to support independence movements in some regions but not in others due to external factors. For example, although I'm generally sympathetic to declarations of independence, I am extremely unsympathetic to the independence of the American South for obvious reasons. It's a different situation, but revanchist sentiments in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea have pretty clearly been drummed up by the Kremlin in service of cynical geopolitical goals. It's possible that the world's interest in preventing Russian imperial expansion might outweigh the interests of Ukrainian Russians wanting to join Russia.

It was Western policies that created the Russia we have today. If we sought to integrate it into our coalition more rigorously when Yeltsin was president, or stopped moving NATO east when Putin was president the first time, or in general just gave the starving bear some room, we'd be in a better position against China now.

You might be right with respect to adding Russia to our sphere – we'll never know now – but I think you're off base with the point against NATO expansion. There's no reason to believe that Russia wouldn't simply be throwing its weight around in the Baltics like it is in Ukraine. If anything, the events of today seem to suggest that the optimal strategy was to rush NATO's borders east as quickly as possible; Russia doesn't seem willing to provoke direct confrontation with NATO. The fact that Russian expansion is limited by NATO is also a benefit to the United States broadly, beyond its being the right thing to do. Under NATO's aegis, the Baltics have grown to about 75% of Ukraine's GDP with like 15% of its population. Friendly nations with large markets like that are exactly what China is working so hard to establish. If we forfeit Eastern Europe to Russia, beyond subjecting millions to unjust despotic rule, we're leaving allies and markets on the table.

[GALeftist]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

I invite you to consider the hit your portfolio might take if this revanchist, protofascist great power isn't halted.

[GALeftist]

To the people saying it's a lot to ask of civilians – no duh. They're not being compelled to fight afaik, and I certainly wouldn't blame any who chose to flee or submit. But I certainly think it's incredibly admirable for those who can fight to do so.

[GALeftist]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

[GALeftist]

Sadly it does seem that much of the west is simply not prepared to do the right thing if it's not also the easy thing. Yes, the sanctions necessary to dent Russian resolve will increase gas prices. I'll pay whatever gas prices I need to save the lives of innocent Ukrainians as well as potential future victims of Russian aggression. This is bigger than personal convenience.

[GALeftist]

As encouraging as these reports of Ukraine punching above its weight are, I'm going to hold off on the optimism. Russia's psychotic leaders have a long history of just throwing innocent bodies (including their own citizens) at a problem until it goes away. I sincerely doubt that Ukraine will be able to hold out for over a week against an onslaught from a much larger and better-funded military.

The tales of Ukrainian successes are heartwarming, but they will not amount to much if the cuckolds in charge of continental Europe can't get their acts together and impose the appropriate sanctions.

Was going to say this. The Ukrainian people clearly have a resolve far beyond what anyone could have imagined, and their valiance is endlessly inspiring, but Russia is capable of far more ruthlessness, as anyone who has ever even seen their behavior in Syria can attest. May God protect Ukraine and give Olaf Scholz some sense.

[GALeftist]

Gosh maybe I should have wished for a CDU win.

Doubt they'd have been better. This is a deeper issue with German policy.

[GALeftist]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

I must say that you have an astounding amount of faith not only in Mr. Putin's mental health but also in the fact that his priorities make sense to us. Isn't it plausible that hegemony in Ukraine is not merely a means to an end but is itself the end? That makes the most sense to me.

[GALeftist]

Looking for twitter updates on the Belarus situation and I found it the worst take on the war:

https://twitter.com/italian69572412/status/1497410104559165442?s=20&t=tNsi6Z...

Imagine non-ironically using cringe and based to describe a government.

Advanced hoi4 brain. Many such cases

[GALeftist]

One thing which I've recently been noting is how much we are being taken for a ride by our "allies" in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but also Israel. It's well known that we basically give Israel unconditional geopolitical support despite what I'd characterize as pretty heinous crimes in occupied Palestine, but we also have given the Saudis aid in their murderous campaigns in Yemen and Syria as well as their broader conflict in Iran, and what do we now have to show for it? All three of them hedging their bets on a 19th-century style imperialist invasion, and Saudi Arabia can't even bring itself to increase oil production? While Iran has been pushed firmly into the Russian sphere? What a disaster.

[GALeftist]

Yeah, I don't think Transnistria is likely to be a boon to the Russian military for a number of reasons. Not sure what their goal is here.

[GALeftist]

Ukraine will always ask for more stuff as long as the war is continuing, that is how it works.

I agree ergo I said

If we recursively apply all the logic that led up to sending Abrams tanks and now likely F-16 would not the end result be the headline "Biden and Pentagon warming up to the idea of sending strategic nuclear weapons to Ukraine"?

No. This is because the reason people were initially reluctant to provide aid in the form of tanks and planes was due to a risk of escalation. However, nuclear weapons are the reason that escalation is bad to begin with. There must therefore be some reason other than potential escalation that use of nuclear weapons is bad (said reason is left as an exercise for the reader). As such, even if one dismisses escalation as a risk entirely, nuclear weapon use would presumably still not be desirable. Hope this helps!

[GALeftist]

I really fail to see why Transnistria looks like it might get roped into this mess. I mean, none of this is logical, but still. Transnistria is a landlocked nation with no airports, it is essentially out of luck when it comes to being supplied by Russia; the forces stationed there could probably effectively combat the Armed Forces of Moldova, which are woefully unprepared for a serious conflict, but if Ukraine gets involved (and it will) there just will be zero contest. Bad from the Russian perspective. It also seems bad from the Ukrainian perspective, since it will open another front, however briefly. I guess it might be good from the Moldovan perspective if you squint, but even if everything goes perfectly, they'd still be getting bailed out by a larger neighbor, which seems suboptimal.

[GALeftist]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-refiners-start-yuan-payments-russian-oil-imports-sources-2023-07-03/

Exclusive: India refiners start yuan payments for Russian oil imports -sources

This seems to be in response to Russian complaints that INR payments are a problem since it is not that liquid

Compared to the famously liquid yuan?