Impeachment Megathread Part 3

[Calthrina950]

^ The above exchange between a Democrat turned Republican and a Republican turned Democrat exemplifies the partisan realignment which Trump has contributed greatly to in recent years.

[Calthrina950]

We are now entering the beginning of a sham proceeding in which Trump will ultimately be acquitted, as we all knew the outcome would be from the start. And this should be good indication of where Susan Collins is headed: https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1217535138151780353. She's throwing "cold water" on the new evidence that has surfaced, and is playing the same games which she played with Kavanaugh.

[Calthrina950]

We are now entering the beginning of a sham proceeding in which Trump will ultimately be acquitted, as we all knew the outcome would be from the start. And this should be good indication of where Susan Collins is headed: https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1217535138151780353. She's throwing "cold water" on the new evidence that has surfaced, and is playing the same games which she played with Kavanaugh.

The only sham going on here is being done by you guys. Trump is as dead to rights guilty as you can get but he’ll be acquitted because you guys care about nothing but holding power our democracy be damned  

It's hilarious how once again, you label me a Trumpist, when I've made clear at this point that I'm not (and I've made it clear ad nauseum that I'm not an actual Republican either). I'm only laying out the bare reality of the situation. A bare reality which even you seem to admit.

[Calthrina950]

McSally is already having meltdowns over this

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1217822020848771074

What makes this ironic is that the same reporter's profile picture is one of him with the late John McCain, whose seat McSally now holds. What a disgrace she is, and what a slap in the face it was to voters that she got appointed. I hope she loses in November.

[Calthrina950]

Given the outcome, why didn't they just group all the amendments together into a mega-amendment and get them all denied in one vote?

It's a bit monotonous.

I don't understand it either. I assume that it was a deliberate gesture, intended to cast light on the unfairness of the proceedings (as the Democrats see it), and to apply additional pressure on the Republicans. At any rate, Collins was the only Republican to defect, and she did so on only one of the amendments. Noticeably enough, both Manchin and Sinema voted with their caucus for Schumer's amendments. Perhaps this provides us with an indication of how they will vote at the end of the trial. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump is acquitted on a completely party-line vote.

[Calthrina950]

So now the new defense line from senate R’s is to cry that Nadler’s comments hurt their feelings

Per CNN & Spokesperson for Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski "She was very offended" by Nadlers Comment.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski's spokesperson said the Alaska lawmaker was “offended” by House Impeachment manager Rep. Jerry Nadler’s comments at the trial that if senators didn’t support the need for witnesses in the impeachment trial, they were "voting for a cover-up."

“I took it as very offensive. As one who is listening attentively and working hard to get to a fair process, I was offended,” Murkowski said Wednesday, according to her aide Karina Borger.

Murkowski is a key swing GOP vote.

Another one of those missteps by Mr. Nadler and Murkowski might be gone for Democrats.

But then, what do you expect from Nadler considering he is a purely partisan hack.

Nadler, Schiff, Demings and Jeffries are acting often like spoiled brats.

The lone Impeachment Manager I genuinly like listening to is Jason Crow. While I don't like the case he is making against Trump the guy at least acts like you should act in the United States Senate.

You are a Russian bot.

Anyone who disagrees with you is a Russian bot? That's an unfair characterization, and one made too often on these boards. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Nadler went over the line with what he said. If Murkowski-who is one of only three Senate Republicans (Collins and Romney being the others), with which there is a greater than zero probability that they might vote to convict Trump-was upset by what he said, then you know it didn't go well with Collins or Romney, and certainly not with the rest of the Republican caucus. He only reinforced their conviction to acquit Trump.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ObsoleteDogma/status/1221594791487705089

I made an observation the other day that there are no longer any "Lawrence Hogan Sr."-type Republicans in Congress. And for that matter, we no longer have any Howard Bakers or Barry Goldwaters either. Every Republican is fully on board with the Trump train, from the establishment-friendly, moderate types to the ardent Trumpists and Tea Partiers. It's a shame and a disgrace, as Trump is the least deserving President, of any modern President, of such loyalty.

At any rate, I've definitely become resolved at this point not to vote for Trump-a resolution which I've made plain before-and I may even vote for Joe Biden if he is the Democratic nominee. Trump must be defeated this year.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ObsoleteDogma/status/1221594791487705089

I made an observation the other day that there are no longer any "Lawrence Hogan Sr."-type Republicans in Congress. And for that matter, we no longer have any Howard Bakers or Barry Goldwaters either. Every Republican is fully on board with the Trump train, from the establishment-friendly, moderate types to the ardent Trumpists and Tea Partiers. It's a shame and a disgrace, as Trump is the least deserving President, of any modern President, of such loyalty.

At any rate, I've definitely become resolved at this point not to vote for Trump-a resolution which I've made plain before-and I may even vote for Joe Biden if he is the Democratic nominee. Trump must be defeated this year.

Glad to see you have finally come around, but the above has been true for almost 10 years now (in regard to the lack of principled, moderate republicans), if not longer.

I've never been a Trump supporter, and I've made clear for some years now that I didn't vote for him in 2016. I've also indicated previously that I wasn't going to vote for him this year. I'm just saying that this whole impeachment episode has reinforced my conviction not to do so.

[Calthrina950]

Agreed about the partisan impeachment issue being a non-starter. Polls have consistently showed a plurality now okay with impeach AND remove. That includes a lot of independents a few of Republicans. However, it rarely gets brought up that that's a thing.

If this were 1974, Trump would be on his way out the door by this point, and Republicans probably would have already convinced him to resign. But we are much more polarized. A good example of this is his approval ratings, which remain in the 40-45% range that they've typically been in throughout his Presidency. By the time Nixon resigned, his approvals were in the 20s, much lower than what Trump's are.

[Calthrina950]

Honestly I get we have to be a big tent but any dem who votes to acquit (Manchin) should be kicked out. This is a goddamn litmus year for me and I don’t want anyone so morally corrupt or cowardly in the part

Of course, if Manchin votes to convict, West Virginia will be outraged. He will definitely be ending his political career with such a move, even if it is the morally correct one.

[Calthrina950]

America is weeping at this vote.

Most of America doesn't care and doesn't even know what impeachment is.

It's actually a pretty popular topic.

Impeachment is such a popular topic that the soap operas usually get 2x higher TV ratings than the trial when shown on the broadcast networks in the afternoon. It's such a popular topic that a Democratic focus group took 80 minutes to even mention the topic, and when they did they dismissed it as partisan nonsense.

Only hyper-partisans care about impeachment.

Are you referring to the focus group on CBS, that was moderated by Frank Luntz? It was an all-female focus group, and every woman at that table, from what I've heard, both Democrats and Republicans, predicted that Trump would win reelection.

[Calthrina950]

The most saddening thing in all this, for me, is the continued erosion of congressional power, to the point where the presidency now guarantees a blank check on all illegal actions, exactly what impeachment was designed to protect against. I'm not going to watch the Senators fumbling to save face on Monday, they've said all they need to.

It's the inevitable end result of a system that didn't hold:

1) Nixon accountable for Watergate
2) Ford for pardoning Nixon
3) Reagan for Iran Contra
4) HW Bush for his role in Iran Contra and pardoning those who perpetrated it
5) Dubya for lying about Iraq

It's no coincidence we are where were at now

Most historians long ago concluded that Ford's decision to pardon Nixon was the correct one, even though it was deeply unpopular at the time and contributed to his defeat in 1976.  It spared the country even more agony from Watergate. Even Ted Kennedy later praised Ford for his move, as can be read here: https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2009/08/sen_ted_kennedy_crossed_politi.html.

[Calthrina950]

The most saddening thing in all this, for me, is the continued erosion of congressional power, to the point where the presidency now guarantees a blank check on all illegal actions, exactly what impeachment was designed to protect against. I'm not going to watch the Senators fumbling to save face on Monday, they've said all they need to.

It's the inevitable end result of a system that didn't hold:

1) Nixon accountable for Watergate
2) Ford for pardoning Nixon
3) Reagan for Iran Contra
4) HW Bush for his role in Iran Contra and pardoning those who perpetrated it
5) Dubya for lying about Iraq

It's no coincidence we are where were at now

Most historians long ago concluded that Ford's decision to pardon Nixon was the correct one, even though it was deeply unpopular at the time and contributed to his defeat in 1976.  It spared the country even more agony from Watergate. Even Ted Kennedy later praised Ford for his move, as can be read here: https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2009/08/sen_ted_kennedy_crossed_politi.html.

Well yeah, they have no say that. American history is one long BS story in which everything always has to work out for the better even when it doesnt.

Also, keep in mind....most history is wrong and made up. Just because a big brain historian with a bunch of degrees writes a historical narrative doesnt make it true.

I understand that, but I certainly believe that Ford made the right call, and avoided the agonies which would have come with such a trial. But I will agree that Reagan and the elder Bush got off scotch-free from Iran-Contra, which was certainly a scandal worthy of impeachment.

[Calthrina950]

America is weeping at this vote.

Most of America doesn't care and doesn't even know what impeachment is.

It's actually a pretty popular topic.

Impeachment is such a popular topic that the soap operas usually get 2x higher TV ratings than the trial when shown on the broadcast networks in the afternoon. It's such a popular topic that a Democratic focus group took 80 minutes to even mention the topic, and when they did they dismissed it as partisan nonsense.

Only hyper-partisans care about impeachment.

Are you referring to the focus group on CBS, that was moderated by Frank Luntz? It was an all-female focus group, and every woman at that table, from what I've heard, both Democrats and Republicans, predicted that Trump would win reelection.

No. I'm refering to a Democratic focus group in Chicago run by David Axelrod:

"Because impeachment didn’t come up, no one volunteered it, for 80 minutes into the focus group, and we’re right in the middle of the trial."


"When it came up, they said, you know, it's terrible what he did, the case has been proven, but we know how it's going to turn out," Axelrod continued. "So we're not really that interested, we're ready to move on."

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/479876-cnns-axelrod-says-impeachment-didnt-come-up-until-80-minutes-into-focus-group

My mistake. This is another focus group that I didn't hear about. But nevertheless, both focus groups seem to provide the basis for the same narrative: that impeachment will not have as significant an impact an election as many on here believe. I'm personally of the belief that both bases will be energized by it. Trump's supporters have considered it to be a "witch hunt", and will be motivated to come out to support him on that basis. And the Democratic base, like those on here, will be motivated to come out, so as to defeat him for reelection. And of course, it's true that many Americans do not care about impeachment, or believe that it was a waste of time, due to the foregone conclusion of it which could be anticipated by all.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Grace_Segers/status/1224803887531679744

I wasn't able to watch the full clip, so I couldn't see if she added, "I'm confident we'll be able to get away with our treason more successfully next time" or "I don't think he'd be stupid enough to have so many witnesses, again".

I'd read "much more cautious" as "He'll make sure he doesn't get caught again".  

I don't think anyone is stupid enough to believe Trump will simply stop being corrupt.

I saw this clip over an hour ago. Given this and Kavanaugh, Collins is going to have the fight of her political life in Maine this year.

[Calthrina950]

In her speech before the Senate, Susan Collins (R-ME) has announced that he will vote to acquit President Trump tomorrow. 

Well she's going to lose.

As if she would have been more likely to win if she had voted to remove him lol.

Well ... yeah. She doesn't have a primary challenger.

It's a devil's dilemma for Collins either way. Vote to convict, and get primaried. Vote to acquit (as she will tomorrow), and lose (possibly) the general election.

[Calthrina950]

In her speech before the Senate, Susan Collins (R-ME) has announced that he will vote to acquit President Trump tomorrow. 

Well she's going to lose.

As if she would have been more likely to win if she had voted to remove him lol.

Well ... yeah. She doesn't have a primary challenger.

It's a devil's dilemma for Collins either way. Vote to convict, and get primaried. Vote to acquit (as she will tomorrow), and lose (possibly) the general election.

I literally just said she doesn't have a primary challenger. You quoted the post. She will not be primaried.

I mean, she could lose the general election if Republicans just refuse to vote for her in November and hand the seat to the Democrat, but that's not likely, especially with Maine's ranked choice system giving Trumpists the ability to vote 3rd party as the first choice but still rank Collins above her Democratic opponent.

I know what you said, and I know she's not being primaried. But that doesn't change my point. Regardless of what Collins does, she damages her position and her chances at being reelected. There are few if any alternatives that she can take to shore herself up. An example of this is the vote on witnesses. In an attempt to appease Democrats and independents, she cast a worthless vote in favor of hearing from witnesses. But now, in an attempt to appease Republicans, she is voting to acquit Trump. It's going to all damage her.

[Calthrina950]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Subtract Jones from that list, and this would be my guess as well. Sinema's behavior tonight, with her being the only Democrat to applaud much of what Trump said-i.e. when he mentioned opportunity zones-and her demonstrated willingness to buck the party line-as seen through her voting record-suggests to me that she is leaning towards acquittal. Manchin comes from the most Trump-supportive state of any Democrat (and West Virginia will be outraged if he votes to convict), and he condemned the "partisan nature" of Trump's impeachment in his Senate speech.

Given this, and given that he knows his vote won't be critical to the final outcome, just like with Kavanaugh, he should vote to acquit. As for Jones, he knows that he is DOA in the general this fall, and he has voted much more in line with the Democratic caucus than Manchin and Sinema-much more like Tester (the only red-state Democrat voting to convict). Moreover, turnout among the Democratic base would be depressed if he voted for acquittal. Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

[Calthrina950]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

The weasel doesn’t have a conscience.

I would disagree. Jones is an establishment liberal Democrat, and has never made any attempt to hide that. Voting for conviction is exactly what one would expect such a Democrat to do.

One who doesn't have a true conscience, however, is Mitt Romney. I expect him to vote for acquittal tomorrow, just like how Jeff Flake ultimately voted for Kavanaugh. Romney has shifted his positions constantly over the years, and he's not adverse to doing it again. If he votes to convict Trump-which is very unlikely, in my view-then his political career will be over.

[Calthrina950]

Exactly as I predicted. Jones knows that he is DOA, and he would not win reelection even if he voted to acquit Trump, in part because of the reasons that I laid out previously. With this move, he has earned himself a strong following among the national Democratic Party, and will almost certainly be considered by a future Democratic Administration for a cabinet post as a reward.

[Calthrina950]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

The weasel doesn’t have a conscience.

I would disagree. Jones is an establishment liberal Democrat, and has never made any attempt to hide that. Voting for conviction is exactly what one would expect such a Democrat to do.

One who doesn't have a true conscience, however, is Mitt Romney. I expect him to vote for acquittal tomorrow, just like how Jeff Flake ultimately voted for Kavanaugh. Romney has shifted his positions constantly over the years, and he's not adverse to doing it again. If he votes to convict Trump-which is very unlikely, in my view-then his political career will be over.

Romney's angle is clear: He's pro-establishment and anti-Trump. Trump changed the Republican Party, and Romney wants to keep the old guard in place. Romney doesn't like that the GOP is changing. Romney is attempting to disrupt Trump at every turn, but like you said, if it turns out that something isn't going to pass, he's not going to die on the hill most likely. Romney is going to act like he was always against the impeachment/removal, when if he was the deciding vote, he'd vote to remove Trump from office tomorrow. Romney picks his moments.

Don't forget that Romney tried to obtain the Secretaryship of State from Trump, and that he was effectively blindsided when Trump chose Rex Tillerson instead. The fact that Romney was cozying up to Trump for a time is indicative of the way in which he shifts his views for his own convenience. And you are right that Romney is pro-establishment, but the problem is that the establishment is now firmly in Trump's corner, as exemplified by McConnell, McCarthy, Scalise, Barrasso, Graham, etc. Trump has given McConnell what he wanted with judges and tax cuts, and McConnell is firmly on the Trump Train.

[Calthrina950]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Subtract Jones from that list, and this would be my guess as well. Sinema's behavior tonight, with her being the only Democrat to applaud much of what Trump said-i.e. when he mentioned opportunity zones-and her demonstrated willingness to buck the party line-as seen through her voting record-suggests to me that she is leaning towards acquittal. Manchin comes from the most Trump-supportive state of any Democrat (and West Virginia will be outraged if he votes to convict), and he condemned the "partisan nature" of Trump's impeachment in his Senate speech.

Given this, and given that he knows his vote won't be critical to the final outcome, just like with Kavanaugh, he should vote to acquit. As for Jones, he knows that he is DOA in the general this fall, and he has voted much more in line with the Democratic caucus than Manchin and Sinema-much more like Tester (the only red-state Democrat voting to convict). Moreover, turnout among the Democratic base would be depressed if he voted for acquittal. Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

Well, I was right about Jones, but wrong about Manchin and Sinema. Romney voting to convict gave them the cover they needed to do so as well. In that way, at least, the impeachment ended in a less than positive way for Trump.

[Calthrina950]

https://youtu.be/ARP9m7-PzJU?t=440

Susan Collins Admits Trump May Not Have Learned His ‘Lesson’

One day after Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) announced her decision to vote against removing President Trump from office by saying that she believes he has learned his “lesson” and will be “much more cautious in the future,” she admitted on Fox News that her assumption was based on nothing. Asked by Fox anchor Martha MacCallum if Trump gave her any “assurance” that he would not accept (or solicit) foreign help in his next election, Collins said she has not spoken to him once throughout the Senate trial, which ended in the president’s acquittal Wednesday afternoon.

“So why do you have that feeling that he has changed, that he learned a lesson?” MacCallum asked. Collins smiled broadly as she replied, “Well, I may not be correct on that. It’s more aspirational on my part, it’s more that I hope that he’s listened to the many voices in the Senate who have pointed out that the call was very problematic.” President Trump has never admitted that his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was anything less than “perfect.”

What a surprise! Donald Trump hasn't learned his lesson?! I'm shocked. Absolutely shocked. How could this have happened?

Susan Collins should have asked herself, whether Donald Trump has ever learned any lesson in his life? Spoiler: No, he didn't. Never have, never will.

My respect for Susan Collins has declined considerably since the Kavanaugh affair. She is constantly trying to come up with excuses for Trump's behavior. She is also a hypocrite. I saw her interviews with Martha MacCallum and with Norah O'Donnell the other day, in which she defended her decision to acquit Trump. She lamented the "loss of civility" in this country and accused her critics, who attacked her for voting with McConnell's approval, of being "sexists". These are things which can just as easily apply to Trump himself.

[Calthrina950]

https://youtu.be/ARP9m7-PzJU?t=440

Susan Collins Admits Trump May Not Have Learned His ‘Lesson’

One day after Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) announced her decision to vote against removing President Trump from office by saying that she believes he has learned his “lesson” and will be “much more cautious in the future,” she admitted on Fox News that her assumption was based on nothing. Asked by Fox anchor Martha MacCallum if Trump gave her any “assurance” that he would not accept (or solicit) foreign help in his next election, Collins said she has not spoken to him once throughout the Senate trial, which ended in the president’s acquittal Wednesday afternoon.

“So why do you have that feeling that he has changed, that he learned a lesson?” MacCallum asked. Collins smiled broadly as she replied, “Well, I may not be correct on that. It’s more aspirational on my part, it’s more that I hope that he’s listened to the many voices in the Senate who have pointed out that the call was very problematic.” President Trump has never admitted that his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was anything less than “perfect.”

What a surprise! Donald Trump hasn't learned his lesson?! I'm shocked. Absolutely shocked. How could this have happened?

Susan Collins should have asked herself, whether Donald Trump has ever learned any lesson in his life? Spoiler: No, he didn't. Never have, never will.

My respect for Susan Collins has declined considerably since the Kavanaugh affair. She is constantly trying to come up with excuses for Trump's behavior. She is also a hypocrite. I saw her interviews with Martha MacCallum and with Norah O'Donnell the other day, in which she defended her decision to acquit Trump. She lamented the "loss of civility" in this country and accused her critics, who attacked her for voting with McConnell's approval, of being "sexists". These are things which can just as easily apply to Trump himself.

It was so incredibly heart-warming when she received applause  at the airport after landing back in Maine for her vote against ACA repeal.

Seems like ages ago.

If Collins had continued with that, by voting against Kavanaugh and voting for conviction, she would probably be in a better position. She would have lost the Republican primary, but could have taken a page out of Angus King's book and run for reelection as an independent. And I think she would win relatively easily. But instead, she's shot herself in the foot, and wiped away the goodwill which she once had.