VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Skill and Chance]

I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.

Mark Uter...er...Udall's people should get in touch with Northam's people about that.

Yes, but that strategy is proven to work better in VA than in any other competitive state (Hillary 2016, McAuliffe/Herring 2013, etc.)

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know who black Virginians are backing between Northam and Perriello? Just wondering.

In polling, they are somewhere between tossup and Lean Perriello.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.

LOL too late.

There's a bit of that vibe as well in the New Jersey Gubernatorial primaries on the Democratic side.

Northam vs. Perriello is more like "more Clinton than Clinton" vs. "halfway between Clinton and Sanders."  Full on Sanders populism won't work in a state with as many wealthy Dems as VA.

[Skill and Chance]

My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.  

As opposed to the 99.99% of other people who run for elected office  This idea that Perriello is somehow more ambitious than most politicians and that if this is true it means he'll be a bad Governor is pretty silly, tbh.  I mean, does anyone here really think Northam didn't run for Lieutenant Governor simply to use the office as a springboard or that he wouldn't use being Governor of Virginia as a springboard to run for higher office if he really thought it'd make him a viable candidate for said office?

Most politicians at least pretend to act as if the elected position they're running for is their heart's desire.  It's less insulting to their voters that way.  We don't appreciate being used, much less reminded of it.  Tom Perriello, however, reminds me of Marco Rubio.  I wonder if he's going to spend more of his time on the job, or running around the country seeking endorsements, raising money, and going to Iowa and New Hampshire. 

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Perriello made those 'tough, high-profile, progressive' votes that only seem impressive because his eye was always on a higher, national office.  Let's not forget how quickly he disavowed his earlier conservative record on gun control and abortion.  I certainly won't.   

The fact that VA has a single term limit for governor's mitigates this concern IMO.  Because of this, literally everyone who runs for VA-GOV does so thinking about what they will do next.

At this point, I would be quite surprised if Northam wins the primary over Perriello.

[Skill and Chance]

The problem with Ralph is that it is pretty difficult to accept the 2004 Bush vote (maybe you can ignore the 2000 vote). Ignore the massive re-deregulation, environment record, tax cuts for the uber rich, blowing up the debt, torture of innocent people, Patriot Act, etc.

But in 2004,  it was already clear that Iraq was a total disaster. And he still voted for Bush against Kerry after voting for Bush against Gore when Bush was still campaigning of Iraq War being a success & as a war president. That is not just terrible judgement but really calls into question his whole vision, ideas, leadership - What kind of a leader will he really be?

Does he have to wait till 2007, when the Republican party abandoned Bush?

I actually think a one-time Bush vote in 2004 would be easier to reconcile with the Dem base than a Bush vote in 2000, especially in a state as hawkish as VA.

[Skill and Chance]

Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

It is hard for me to see Perriello losing this if he leads in the public polls going in.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd have thought Vogel would have dropped out after those dirty tricks late last year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor-is-getting-ugly-in-virginia/2016/12/31/95c84ed0-cf84-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.e92b5d3d9b21

Granted, I haven't followed it since that article, so I don't know if it turned out to not be her, although the stupidity of this case would suggest it was indeed Vogel.

At this point, I would expect Dems to hold the open VA-LG even if they lose VA-GOV.  That could be quite significant as a tied State Senate during the 2021 redistricting is a distinct possibility.

[Skill and Chance]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

[Skill and Chance]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Fingers crossed for "Virginia gets a 12th district in 2022 and the seat that comes out of it is a NOVA to Charlottesville gerrymander"

I think the Republican-controlled federal government and its budget cuts basically assures that VA won't get a 12th district.  If it's a court map, which is by far the most likely outcome given how many State Senate districts Clinton won, then it's Republicans who should be rooting for a 12th district.  A court would almost surely compress VA-10 into a compact Reston-Leesburg district on a 12 district map, which would be roughly 2:1 Dem voting by then.  Whereas an 11 district map with this decade's population growth would mean 2 of VA-01, VA-05 and VA-07 inevitably run out of rural central VA and get sucked further into NOVA and Richmond, probably enough to be tossup seats by 2022.  A 12 district court map probably ends up an ironclad 7R/5D, while an 11 district court map could be 4R/4D/3Swing.  In the event of a Republican map, it's still possible to draw a fairly safe 8R/4D, but between Henrico and Loudoun, it's no longer possible to do better than 7R/4D on an 11 district map if Clinton numbers hold.  In the unlikely event of a Democratic map, they would connect Charlottesville to the Dem parts of Richmond outside of VA-04, not to NOVA.  VA-07 would collapse into an I-64 district that voted for Clinton by 10-15 and VA-05 would pull east into the 2:1 Republican Richmond exurbs.  From there, VA-01 becomes as rural/exurban as possible to allow VA-02 to collapse further into Hampton roads until it is at least a Clinton +5-10 district.  Then reliably Dem areas get redistributed between the 3 NOVA seats until they are all about 60% Clinton for a safe 6D/5R map that means Comstock would be toast in 2022 (although it is unlikely she holds VA-10 that long as it is). 

[Skill and Chance]

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

I am highly skeptical of this pollster.

I am as well.  Nominating Stewart for Governor with Trump as President would probably destroy the VA GOP for a generation.  I have to think they won't jump that shark.  Also, I do think Perriello will win, but barely, not by 8.

[Skill and Chance]

Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.

Ehhh... Clinton also did unprecedentedly awful outside the metro areas.  Didn't matter a bit.  It's almost inevitable that VA-09 (and neighboring districts like KY-05 and WV-03) will be the GOP's answer to NY-15 and CA-13 within 20 years.  I don't expect it to change the statewide Dem edge in VA at all.

[Skill and Chance]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

[Skill and Chance]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

It sure looks like Gillespie is campaigning as if he thinks the 2016 Dem margins in the suburbs are baked in and the WaPo poll is close to the real state of the race (or, less likely, Northam has unusual rural VA strength).  He's looking for a Hail Mary with rural turnout, which, it should be noted, almost worked for Cuccinelli.  Still, he doesn't have the persona of Cuccinelli.  You would think the low-hanging fruit for him would be in NOVA.

[Skill and Chance]

I do not think Gillespie will win (but it will be close), but imagine if he did win. I would love to see Atlas and media reactions to it.

He's not to be taken lightly, no doubt.  I still think Northam will win by 3, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of Vogel (LG) or Adams (AG) sneaks through downballot with the top of the ticket that close.  The rev up the rural base strategy made both 2013 and 2016 closer than anyone expected.

[Skill and Chance]

What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

[Skill and Chance]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

This is a culturally Southern downstate Democrat against a culturally DC Republican in a state level.  You can expect a lot of voters to differentiate them from Hillary Clinton and Trump.  Herring did better than Northam in Loudoun in 2013, even as Herring won by 1000 votes and Northam won by 10%.  Being an insider who is "from" NOVA can make a difference there.  Similarly, there are probably a bunch of people (mainly) in the countryside with their MAGA hats who see Gillespie and think, "Ewww, another corrupt lobbyist!"

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

Northam's lead has been expanding

If he's already at 49, he can probably afford a 2013/14 situation where all of the undecideds go Republican because there is a libertarian who will take a couple percent.  He could still end up winning by just 1-2% in that scenario, though.

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.

[Skill and Chance]

For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.

No way on this.  Perriello would win by 10-15, probably with the highest turnout on record for an odd year.

Now they are stuck with another 2013/14 trying to squeeze just enough extra votes out of Fairfax with social issues.  IMO it will probably work and he still wins by 1-3, but it didn't need to be close when there is a GOP incumbent president with <40% approval.  Perriello would have made Trump's statewide approval % Gillespie's ceiling.

[Skill and Chance]

Worth noting that the polls were only off at the top of the ticket in 2013.  Northam's big margin and Herring's statistical tie were accurately forecasted for LG and AG.

[Skill and Chance]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

Much farther left, particularly on environmental issues that angered business interests and organized labor.  It will be a tradeoff between potentially higher support for Fairfax in areas with a lot of black voters and/or progressive activists vs. lower support than Northam and Herring from other parts of the state.  It would be a different situation if someone like Perriello won the nomination, but the top of the ticket tacking to the center leaves Fairfax exposed and reinforces the idea that he's too far left for the state.

Vogel also seems to be the strongest of the 3 Republicans.  She consolidated Trumpist and Establishment support from day 1, unlike Gillespie who is struggling with Trumpists and Adams who is struggling with Establishment R's. 

[Skill and Chance]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

$$ Fairfax simply doesn’t have the adequate resources to sell himself to voters while Vogel is personally wealthy. And the GOV/AG races are sucking up all the money, if the Senate was tied like it was in 2013 and Ds could take back the chamber you’d see more attention to Fairfax.

It could easily be tied in 2019, so Fairfax vs. Vogel matters a great deal for redistricting.  You would think he would get more attention just for that reason.

[Skill and Chance]

So DFA would rather have race-baiting Ed be governor and give Republicans full control over Virginia for essentially the next decade with redistricting? With Brazile desperately trying to sell books with her comments 5 days before hugely important elections and now this, it is like they are trying to lose. What a MORONIC decision by DFA.

They can still get a say in redistricting by taking the State Senate in 2019.  Clinton won 23 of the 40 seats.  In fact, this would assure a Dem say in congressional redistricting, while they would have to win VA-GOV again in 2021 to get a say through the governor.  And SCOTUS has already gotten involved for congressional and the lower house.  You can bet they would frown on a mid-decade redraw if that's what you're worried about.

[Skill and Chance]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.