VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[PragmaticPopulist]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Big momentum heading into the last inches of the race.

That's a bit of a surprise. All I've been hearing about Northam lately is that he's taking the usual D strategy of focusing on the urban crescent and ignoring the rest. The endorsement might help keep Gillespie's margins down in the coal counties of SW VA.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Wow. That definitely helps him.

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At this point, my confidence level that Northam will win this is about 75%. If you had asked me that question immediately after the primary, my answer would have been more around 60%. Even when the Washington Post poll is eliminated from the RCP average (and is substituted with the sixth most recent poll to keep it at a 5-poll average), Northam's lead is at a fairly comfortable 5.4%, which may not be so great if it's July, but it's just fine for October. It's difficult to see Gillespie pulling this off without an October surprise.

[Frodo]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Yeah -now would be a good time to turn our attention to the House of Delegates races... 

[GlobeSoc]

If coal country cucks Gillespie and Hampton Roads crossover materializes, Northam wins in a blowout

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ I'm wary of expecting the state to do anything more than a point or two bigger than HRC's 5% margin, seeing as even ultra-extremist E.W. Jackson lost by only 10%, and Gillespie is obviously not comparable to him.  But it's not completely impossible that this is the year where republicans fall below their current floor of 45%.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Debate earlier tonight:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?435325-1/candidates-face-virginia-governors-debate

Northam is getting lots of praise from the left on twitter for asking Gillespie a question about long-acting contraceptives.

[henster]

It’s just ridiculous pols are still pandering to coal in VA. Just reading the WaPo article on Gillespie promising to bring back the coal tax credit and Northam continuing to placate coal.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It’s just ridiculous pols are still pandering to coal in VA. Just reading the WaPo article on Gillespie promising to bring back the coal tax credit and Northam continuing to placate coal.

Bashing Coal at a debate held in Coal Country VA would be a very poor strategic move.

[Pericles]

Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained

[Holmes]

Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained

I mean, he could win. There has always been a chance.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained

There's like a 1 in 4 chance Gillespie pulls it off. Not likely but far from unforseeable.

[Mr. Smith]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

This is a culturally Southern downstate Democrat against a culturally DC Republican in a state level.  You can expect a lot of voters to differentiate them from Hillary Clinton and Trump.  Herring did better than Northam in Loudoun in 2013, even as Herring won by 1000 votes and Northam won by 10%.  Being an insider who is "from" NOVA can make a difference there.  Similarly, there are probably a bunch of people (mainly) in the countryside with their MAGA hats who see Gillespie and think, "Ewww, another corrupt lobbyist!"

[Gass3268]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

[Deblano]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

The problem is that skipping Buena Vista would get a lot more publicity than attending a campaign thingy in Harrisonburg.

[Mr. Smith]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

The problem is that skipping Buena Vista would get a lot more publicity than attending a campaign thingy in Harrisonburg.

Precisely, which is why Tim Kaine went for it in 2012, even though he was never by ANY measure behind George "Macaca" Allen.

It's like the state's version of how every Democrat goes to Wisconsin [well except for well...you know who].

Anyway, it's too late now, the Labor Day Parade was the day to go there as a good faith move, AND he could've ginned up the base in the VMI/W&L town of Lexington as well.

[Young Conservative]

Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

[Gass3268]

Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

Northam's lead has been expanding

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

Northam's lead has been expanding

If he's already at 49, he can probably afford a 2013/14 situation where all of the undecideds go Republican because there is a libertarian who will take a couple percent.  He could still end up winning by just 1-2% in that scenario, though.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A poll taken of Virginia's 10th has Trump down 37/59 and Comstock losing to generic dem 48-39. So Ed's got to walk around some serious Trump hate in NOVA that is already hurting Barbara https://mobile.twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918483568577441792

[Kamala]

A poll taken of Virginia's 10th has Trump down 37/59 and Comstock losing to generic dem 48-39. So Ed's got to walk around some serious Trump hate in NOVA that is already hurting Barbara https://mobile.twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918483568577441792

Bye, bye, bye Barbara-Ann.

[Yank2133]

A poll taken of Virginia's 10th has Trump down 37/59 and Comstock losing to generic dem 48-39. So Ed's got to walk around some serious Trump hate in NOVA that is already hurting Barbara https://mobile.twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918483568577441792

I stand by my posts last night that challenged the notion that Gillespie was "fine" in NOVA. He is not gonna do anywhere near as well there as he did in 2014.

Agreed.

People really underestimate how lazy of a campaign Warner ran in 2014 and that played a major role in Gillespie over performing in NOVA.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I also don't see a reason to be confident that Gillespie's getting what he needs in NOVA. Granted, he can probably afford to be a touch behind his 2014 NOVA numbers if he's matching Trump in rural areas, but he does need to significantly outperform Cuccinelli '13 levels, which he may or may not be doing. (which were 36% in Fairfax, 45% in Loudoun, 44% in PW)

[Holmes]

Comstock should just run for Senate. Losing a statewide race is less embarrassing than losing a House seat you've held for a while.

lol there are talks for Trump to campaign for Gillespie. lmao