VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

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I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

[Skill and Chance]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

Much farther left, particularly on environmental issues that angered business interests and organized labor.  It will be a tradeoff between potentially higher support for Fairfax in areas with a lot of black voters and/or progressive activists vs. lower support than Northam and Herring from other parts of the state.  It would be a different situation if someone like Perriello won the nomination, but the top of the ticket tacking to the center leaves Fairfax exposed and reinforces the idea that he's too far left for the state.

Vogel also seems to be the strongest of the 3 Republicans.  She consolidated Trumpist and Establishment support from day 1, unlike Gillespie who is struggling with Trumpists and Adams who is struggling with Establishment R's. 

[swf541]

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/jeff-schapiro/schapiro-for-republicans-it-s-every-man-for-himself/article_67d0ec8e-20ef-59be-a934-cb77640f2e52.html

Interesting article

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

He's much more liberal (not just than Northam, but also more liberal than Kaine, T-Mac, Warner, and Herring; this isn't necessarily bad or anything, but it means he'll face a tougher race since he also doesn't have the appeal of someone like Perriello to non-NOVA, Republican-leaning parts of the state), lacks Northam's base in the normally Republican-leaning Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore area, lacks Northam's ability to potentially make inroads in the rural areas, and (this part is just my opinion) he has the lean-and-hungry look, so to speak.  The other thing is that (sadly) there's still a risk (especially outside of NOVA) of him facing a small Bradley Effect due to his skin color.  However, Fairfax and Perriello far more in tune with the future of the Virginia Democratic Party than Northam, but the state just isn't there quite yet (and I say that as someone who was an enthusiastic Perriello supporter in during the primary).  Folks like Herring, Northam, etc are the bridge between the past† and the future** as far as Virginia Democratic politicians go.  

What's interesting is that rather than adapting to changing times, the Virginia Republican Party (much like the Republican Party as a whole, but this is one of the best examples) seems to be doubling-down on a doomed (at least in the long-term) "old Virginia" strategy of scorched earth race-baiting and fire-and-brimstone religious demagoguery.  They insist on either running batsh!t insane lunatics (Corey Stewart, The Cooch, E.W. Jackson, etc), forcing otherwise electable candidates to reinvent themselves as far-right bomb-throwers (Gillespie, the VA GOP pushing that transvaginal ultrasound bill in 2012, etc), or simply boxing out electable candidates (Bill Bolling being the most infamous example).  This is going to be self-destructive in the long-term and I'm honestly not sure why they seem to be so stubborn about digging their own grave in Virginia statewide politics, but I digress.

*White, male, center-left politicians with solid socially liberal credentials who still have some real appeal to some of the swingier Republican-leaning parts of Virginia

†Moderate and center-right white Democrats like Mark Warner, pre-Senate Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, etc who bank on an unusually strong appeal in rural areas and try to win by appealing to Republican-leaning independents/less partisan Republicans with moderate or even center-right positions on issues like gun control, taxes, abortion, the death penalty, etc.  Even with Kaine (who was easily the most liberal Virginia Democrat to come anywhere near winning statewide when he was elected Governor), you had some remarkably right-wing social views by today's standards.  For example, Kaine not only supported a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but even argued in 2005 that only married couples should be legally allowed to adopt children.  

**Younger, liberal/solidly center-left Democratic politicians with socially liberal views who (with occasional exceptions like Perriello) are based in NOVA and whose campaigns are tailored toward 1) the Democratic base and 2) suburban voters, are less concerned with keeping down Republican margins in rural Virginia, and don't make all that much of a play for crossover votes aside from more affluent, pro-choice folks who vote Republican because they want low taxes, but also care a great deal about issues like education and transportation.  

Anyway, that's my #HotTake on the state of Virginia politics; I didn't mean for it to be anywhere near this long  Our resident Virginians can obviously correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.

[Gass3268]

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[swf541]

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Yep and the article I linked prior shows the GOP thinking the gov race is Northam's to lose and the only competitive race is Lt gov

[henster]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

$$ Fairfax simply doesn’t have the adequate resources to sell himself to voters while Vogel is personally wealthy. And the GOV/AG races are sucking up all the money, if the Senate was tied like it was in 2013 and Ds could take back the chamber you’d see more attention to Fairfax.

[IceSpear]

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Yeah, one thing for sure is that the indictments could not have been better timing for Northam.

[SoLongAtlas]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

He's much more liberal (not just than Northam, but also more liberal than Kaine, T-Mac, Warner, and Herring; this isn't necessarily bad or anything, but it means he'll face a tougher race since he also doesn't have the appeal of someone like Perriello to non-NOVA, Republican-leaning parts of the state), lacks Northam's base in the normally Republican-leaning Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore area, lacks Northam's ability to potentially make inroads in the rural areas, and (this part is just my opinion) he has the lean-and-hungry look, so to speak.  The other thing is that (sadly) there's still a risk (especially outside of NOVA) of him facing a small Bradley Effect due to his skin color.  However, Fairfax and Perriello far more in tune with the future of the Virginia Democratic Party than Northam, but the state just isn't there quite yet (and I say that as someone who was an enthusiastic Perriello supporter in during the primary).  Folks like Herring, Northam, etc are the bridge between the past† and the future** as far as Virginia Democratic politicians go. 

What's interesting is that rather than adapting to changing times, the Virginia Republican Party (much like the Republican Party as a whole, but this is one of the best examples) seems to be doubling-down on a doomed (at least in the long-term) "old Virginia" strategy of scorched earth race-baiting and fire-and-brimstone religious demagoguery.  They insist on either running batsh!t insane lunatics (Corey Stewart, The Cooch, E.W. Jackson, etc), forcing otherwise electable candidates to reinvent themselves as far-right bomb-throwers (Gillespie, the VA GOP pushing that transvaginal ultrasound bill in 2012, etc), or simply boxing out electable candidates (Bill Bolling being the most infamous example).  This is going to be self-destructive in the long-term and I'm honestly not sure why they seem to be so stubborn about digging their own grave in Virginia statewide politics, but I digress.

*White, male, center-left politicians with solid socially liberal credentials who still have some real appeal to some of the swingier Republican-leaning parts of Virginia

†Moderate and center-right white Democrats like Mark Warner, pre-Senate Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, etc who bank on an unusually strong appeal in rural areas and try to win by appealing to Republican-leaning independents/less partisan Republicans with moderate or even center-right positions on issues like gun control, taxes, abortion, the death penalty, etc.  Even with Kaine (who was easily the most liberal Virginia Democrat to come anywhere near winning statewide when he was elected Governor), you had some remarkably right-wing social views by today's standards.  For example, Kaine not only supported a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but even argued in 2005 that only married couples should be legally allowed to adopt children. 

**Younger, liberal/solidly center-left Democratic politicians with socially liberal views who (with occasional exceptions like Perriello) are based in NOVA and whose campaigns are tailored toward 1) the Democratic base and 2) suburban voters, are less concerned with keeping down Republican margins in rural Virginia, and don't make all that much of a play for crossover votes aside from more affluent, pro-choice folks who vote Republican because they want low taxes, but also care a great deal about issues like education and transportation. 

Anyway, that's my #HotTake on the state of Virginia politics; I didn't mean for it to be anywhere near this long   Our resident Virginians can obviously correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.

To a certain extent but understand that VA dems are still moderate by and large. They want low but effective taxes and better infrastructure. Social issues don't have as big a pull here, true, but it cuts both ways. Run on leftist issues as a Dem and risk NoVA and Richmond moderates at your own peril. VA is not CA by any stretch. Go south of Prince William and understand. Talk to workers in Ffx and PW and this will become clearer.

[Skill and Chance]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

$$ Fairfax simply doesn’t have the adequate resources to sell himself to voters while Vogel is personally wealthy. And the GOV/AG races are sucking up all the money, if the Senate was tied like it was in 2013 and Ds could take back the chamber you’d see more attention to Fairfax.

It could easily be tied in 2019, so Fairfax vs. Vogel matters a great deal for redistricting.  You would think he would get more attention just for that reason.

[Gass3268]

A new Quinnipiac poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A new Quinnipiac Utter Junk poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.

FTFY

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A new Quinnipiac Utter Junk poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.

FTFY

Wait is your signature a joke or do you seriously support Doug Jones, Phil Murphy, AND Ed Gillespie?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Q poll

Northam (D) 53 (nc)
Gillespie (R) 36 (-3)
Hyra (L) 3

[Gass3268]

New ad from Latino Victory is really something

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Poll from the world of non-junk: Northam +6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/

[TheSaint250]

New Poll from the world of non-junk: Northam +6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/

Any poll with Gillespie losing is junk.

/s

[heatcharger]

#Unity here in Charlottesville:



If I hadn't known who these two were and someone told me Northam was 15 years older than Perriello, I wouldn't really believe it.

[Frodo]

New ad from Latino Victory is really something

They should play some variation of that at every opportunity next year and in 2020. 

[Panhandle Progressive]

New Q poll

Northam (D) 53 (nc)
Gillespie (R) 36 (-3)
Hyra (L) 3

I believe once all the votes are tallied it will result in Northam winning by about half this margin. Northam by about 8 to 8.5%.

[LimoLiberal]

Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

[swf541]

Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

I think thats a steyer linked group.  Nothing to do with Northam

[henster]

Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

Campaigns cannot coordinate with Super PACs.

[TheSaint250]

The campaign statement didn't reject the ad.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/925045143299817473

[TheSaint250]

This has been one of the worst campaigns ever run.