CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[IceSpear]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

The media says Barbara Comstock is a "moderate" despite her voting with Trump 98% of the time. Objective arguments aren't gonna win you brownie points with them, much less the stupid "swing voters."

Anyway, Sinema has been pandering hard to the right. That's basically been her entire campaign strategy so far.

[Webnicz]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

That isn't what happened though. McSally was pushed to the right. She basically became Kelli Ward without the Chemtrails.

[Mr. Smith]

Can't wait to see what Apache looks like.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

The media says Barbara Comstock is a "moderate" despite her voting with Trump 98% of the time. Objective arguments aren't gonna win you brownie points with them, much less the stupid "swing voters."

Anyway, Sinema has been pandering hard to the right. That's basically been her entire campaign strategy so far.

*McSally

If you truly meant Sinema and it wasn't a slip, I must say the quality of your posts have really fallen this month.

[IceSpear]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

The media says Barbara Comstock is a "moderate" despite her voting with Trump 98% of the time. Objective arguments aren't gonna win you brownie points with them, much less the stupid "swing voters."

Anyway, Sinema has been pandering hard to the right. That's basically been her entire campaign strategy so far.

*McSally

If you truly meant Sinema and it wasn't a slip, I must say the quality of your posts have really fallen this month.

Both Sinema and McSally have been pandering hard to the right. Sinema's pandering is even more shameless considering she used to be a Prada socialist. Take off the pom poms for a second and look at the facts. She joined the Blue Dogs, has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, has refused to criticize Trump, has said she wouldn't vote for Schumer as majority leader, and has spent her entire campaign posturing as a moderate hero. This article is a good summary:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL at the bolded. Utterly spineless and shameless. Not to mention weak, pathetic, and low energy. And yes, she's running to the right of Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, etc.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

The media says Barbara Comstock is a "moderate" despite her voting with Trump 98% of the time. Objective arguments aren't gonna win you brownie points with them, much less the stupid "swing voters."

Anyway, Sinema has been pandering hard to the right. That's basically been her entire campaign strategy so far.

*McSally

If you truly meant Sinema and it wasn't a slip, I must say the quality of your posts have really fallen this month.

Both Sinema and McSally have been pandering hard to the right. Sinema's pandering is even more shameless considering she used to be a Prada socialist. Take off the pom poms for a second and look at the facts. She joined the Blue Dogs, has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, has refused to criticize Trump, has said she wouldn't vote for Schumer as majority leader, and has spent her entire campaign posturing as a moderate hero. This article is a good summary:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL at the bolded. Utterly spineless and shameless. Not to mention weak, pathetic, and low energy. And yes, she's running to the right of Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, etc.

People on Atlas have been easing up and warming up to Joe Manchin over the past few months. I don't know why, but I like it.

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, Maricopa's to the right of the state in terms of D/R primary ballots pulled - not good!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Is this still mostly early vote in Arizona that we're seeing?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

As of right now, Maricopa's to the right of the state in terms of D/R primary ballots pulled - not good!

I mean, it's not surprising. Maricopa has a decent amount of RINOs. The rest of AZ arguably has more DINOs.

[Adam Griffin]

Is this still mostly early vote in Arizona that we're seeing?

Yes, but that's most of the vote in AZ in general (70-75% of all votes). We're already at 700k votes and based on turnout patterns this cycle and the size of AZ, 700-800k votes seems within the range of average...though perhaps this election is different.

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, Maricopa's to the right of the state in terms of D/R primary ballots pulled - not good!

I mean, it's not surprising. Maricopa has a decent amount of RINOs. The rest of AZ arguably has more DINOs.

I guess that's fair.

Here's the map as of now with the early/initial results (Greenlee County showing off its DINO roots):

[Gass3268]

As of right now, Maricopa's to the right of the state in terms of D/R primary ballots pulled - not good!

I mean, it's not surprising. Maricopa has a decent amount of RINOs. The rest of AZ arguably has more DINOs.

I guess that's fair.

Here's the map as of now with the early/initial results (Greenlee County showing off its DINO roots):

Also while it doesn't make up a huge %, more Democrats tend to vote on the day off, so things could narrow.

[krazen1211]

As of right now, Maricopa's to the right of the state in terms of D/R primary ballots pulled - not good!

I mean, it's not surprising. Maricopa has a decent amount of RINOs. The rest of AZ arguably has more DINOs.

IIRC, Trump won non-Maricopa Arizona in the 2016 election. He won Maricopa county, too.

[Adam Griffin]

AZ Primary Electorate, 2014: 66% GOP, 34% DEM
AZ Pres Primary Electorate, 2016: 57% GOP, 43% DEM
AZ Primary Electorate, 2018: 56% GOP, 44% DEM*

*As of right now

[OSR stands with Israel]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

The media says Barbara Comstock is a "moderate" despite her voting with Trump 98% of the time. Objective arguments aren't gonna win you brownie points with them, much less the stupid "swing voters."

Anyway, Sinema has been pandering hard to the right. That's basically been her entire campaign strategy so far.

*McSally

If you truly meant Sinema and it wasn't a slip, I must say the quality of your posts have really fallen this month.

Both Sinema and McSally have been pandering hard to the right. Sinema's pandering is even more shameless considering she used to be a Prada socialist. Take off the pom poms for a second and look at the facts. She joined the Blue Dogs, has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, has refused to criticize Trump, has said she wouldn't vote for Schumer as majority leader, and has spent her entire campaign posturing as a moderate hero. This article is a good summary:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL at the bolded. Utterly spineless and shameless. Not to mention weak, pathetic, and low energy. And yes, she's running to the right of Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, etc.

Looks like if Sinema wins she will become one of my favorite democratic senators

[Adam Griffin]

Also while it doesn't make up a huge %, more Democrats tend to vote on the day off, so things could narrow.

Crap, yeah, I forgot about that (I now remember all the complaints about how the lines were 95% Bernie supporters and people were leaving the long lines during the presidential primary).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A few more projections:

U.S. House District 2

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ann Kirkpatrick
23,203   41.1%   
Matt Heinz
17,609   31.2   
Mary Matiella
5,101   9.0   
Bruce Wheeler
5,068   9.0   
Billy Kovacs
3,175   5.6   
Barbara Sherry
1,492   2.6   
Yahya Yuksel
832   1.5   
56,480 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 195 precincts)

District 3
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Nick Pierson
8,525   51.3%   
Sergio Arellano
4,495   27.1   
Edna San Miguel
3,596   21.6   
16,616 votes, 3% reporting (5 of 178 precincts)

U.S. House District 5

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Joan Greene
16,871   62.0%   
Jose Torres
10,337   38.0   
27,208 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 128 precincts)

District 9
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Steve Ferrara
17,287   61.0%   
Dave Giles
8,879   31.3   
Irina Baroness Von Behr
2,175   7.7   
28,341 votes, 6% reporting (8 of 140 precincts)

Still uncalled: CD 1 R, CD 2 R, CD 4 D, CD 6 D

[Devout Centrist]

Also while it doesn't make up a huge %, more Democrats tend to vote on the day off, so things could narrow.

Crap, yeah, I forgot about that (I now remember all the complaints about how the lines were 95% Bernie supporters and people were leaving the long lines during the presidential primary).

Yeah, we still have 700 precincts left to count in Maricopa

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Looks like the Democrats flipped a seat tonight-

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/1034587718163021825

[Calthrina950]

Looks like the Democrats flipped a seat tonight-

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/1034587718163021825

Isn't there a Democratic Congresswoman from Orange County named Demings? Would this be her husband?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Looks like the Democrats flipped a seat tonight-

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/1034587718163021825

Isn't there a Democratic Congresswoman from Orange County named Demings? Would this be her husband?

Yes! This is Congresswoman Val Demings's husband.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like the Democrats flipped a seat tonight-

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/1034587718163021825

OSCEOLA JOE!!

[NOVA Green]

Also while it doesn't make up a huge %, more Democrats tend to vote on the day off, so things could narrow.

Crap, yeah, I forgot about that (I now remember all the complaints about how the lines were 95% Bernie supporters and people were leaving the long lines during the presidential primary).

Yeah, we still have 700 precincts left to count in Maricopa

I'm assuming you're talking ED votes, since there are only slightly over 700 precincts located within Maricopa County....   

[Devout Centrist]

Also while it doesn't make up a huge %, more Democrats tend to vote on the day off, so things could narrow.

Crap, yeah, I forgot about that (I now remember all the complaints about how the lines were 95% Bernie supporters and people were leaving the long lines during the presidential primary).

Yeah, we still have 700 precincts left to count in Maricopa

I'm assuming you're talking ED votes, since there are only slightly over 700 precincts located within Maricopa County....   

Indeed, I am!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, Gillum was a good surprise! It's f**king frustrating to see Shalala win so narrowly, but win some lose some I guess.

Isn't it kind of concerning that Republicans won more primary votes though? I know primary turnout isn't representative, but Democrats had a more contested race for Governor so if anything I'd expect them to be overrepresented. Am I missing something.

Arizona seems like a snoozefest.