Italy

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the best link to follow the results?

Dave

http://www.repubblica.it/speciale/2006/elezioni/camera/index.html  Stop updating a few minutes ago though.

Cheers Phil

Have they stopped counting until tomorrow now or rather until daylight hours?

Dave

[Sarnstrom]

According to another site, The Union has proclaimed victory.

EDIT: Yahoo! now reporting that Prodi claims victory.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060411/wl_nm/italy_dc_49;_ylt=AoWXuAhxLpBJDAch77O93go20M0A;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

[YoMartin]

Everything seems over, although I expect recounts from now on. 25.000 votes is barely nothing and Silvio sure knows how to get things dirty... Especially considering jail is not out of the question when he leaves office.

[ag]

Seems this is it. Including the foreign vote (?) the seat allocation will be 340 left to 277 right. The Senate will be 154 left to 155 right, which leaves the Senators for life decisive.  But, truth be told, Berlusconi did give it a much better run than I'd expect beforehand. He might stay around to lead the coalition for a while (until the new government manages to jail him, at least). 

[YoMartin]

Berlusconi indeed ran an excellent race. I actually can´t find any positive things under his administration...

My favourites from La Rosa nel Pugno (plattform: http://www.rosanelpugno.it/rosanelpugno/programma; bear in mind "liberal" and "radical" are used in its european sense), on the other side, couldn´t pass the million votes (2.6%). L´Ulivo and the former communists (well, there are three former communists within L`Unione) monopolised most of Unione votes.

[Keystone Phil]

So to clear things up...

Berlusconi is likely to ask for a recount in the lower house while the upper house will narrowly stay with his coalition (unless the overseas vote comes in big for the left). Sound right?

[ag]

So to clear things up...

Berlusconi is likely to ask for a recount in the lower house while the upper house will narrowly stay with his coalition (unless the overseas vote comes in big for the left). Sound right?

Yes, he is likely to ask for a recount in the lower house. The overseas vote has come big to the left, that is why in the latest projections he only has a one seat lead there (155 to 154). But he does not have a majority, unless we figure out who are the Senators for life (former presidents? In that case he is screwed).

Correction: Actually, I was wrong. The foreign vote is not yet included, the addition is due to adding the Valle d'Aosta and Trentino Alto Adige, which are not included in the national count, since they elect senators separately. In the end, the left took 6 seats there, and the right only 2. Thus, the foreign senatros will be decisive, and, given the early returns from abroad, most of them will be left. Still, the senators-for-life will be decisive.

[YoMartin]

I´m a bit out-of-date with the recent legal changes. I´ve read the Senate has taken greater importance, but I assume it still can´t elect/censor a government, right?

I understand 6 senators are elected in foreign countries. L´Unione is currently beating Forza Italia 45% - 22%, which would translate in 4-2 senators each and... L´Unione getting 158 senators against Casa delle Libertá 157! But WAIT. As I said, for some reason Argentina´s votes (second largest italian community after Germany) haven´t been counted yet, so As. It. Sudamerica (currently at 8%) could end up getting a senator from L´Unione... 157-157!!! I have no idea where that senator could end up going to...

[Sarnstrom]

On a different site it says that the Union has an additional 6 expatriate seats. How will that effect the results?

[YoMartin]

They just started counting in Argentina: with only 1 "sezioni scrutinate" (of a total of 104), As. It. Sudamerica is getting 50% here, so... that 6th foreign senator will be very hard fought...

[YoMartin]

Regional results follow expectations, from what I´ve checked so far. Prodi got 60% in Toscana and Emilia Romagna (I´ve found the highest numbers -67%- in Livorno, Firenze and Siena, and similar numbers in former "red areas" like Reggio Emilia and Bologna). Berlusconi is getting similar numbers in Northern areas like Lombardia and Veneto. Catholic parties (from both coalitions) got their best results in the south. Former fascist Alleanza Nazionale is strong in Lazio (Rome and surroundings).

For football fans, no wonder why Lazio-Livorno turn into wars between the fans...

[ag]

On a different site it says that the Union has an additional 6 expatriate seats. How will that effect the results?

If this is about the Senate and they all went Union, the left would have 160 seats to 155 for the right w/ 7 senators for life still holding the balance. But I do not believe all 6 would go Union, though Union should get most of them.

[ag]

I´m a bit out-of-date with the recent legal changes. I´ve read the Senate has taken greater importance, but I assume it still can´t elect/censor a government, right?

CNN and BBC both seem to imply that if the two chambers are controlled by different coalitions, the government can't be formed. In that case a new election is necessary after a few months (there'd be a caretaker government in between). So, who are the senators for life?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone who still believes in the "liberal media" should've read the AP story on this I read in today's StarTrib. It basically described Berlusconi as a US ally holding against an opposition block that "includes Communists". Yeah, and no mention of Berlusconi's not-so-reformed fascist Mussolini loving coalition partners, or the wonderfully racist Lega Nord that make up a hell of a lot larger part of his coalition than the Communists do of Prodi's. And of course ignores the fact that the Communists only reluctantly came aboard. And of course it then narrowly glossed over Berlusconi's corruption and then mentioned Berlusconi accusing Prodi of being used by the Communists to undermine democracy (despite the fact there is no indictation of the Communist Refoundation ever being undemocratic). You'd expect Italy to become a new Soviet republic under a Prodi government juding only from that article.

[Ben.]

Anyone who still believes in the "liberal media" should've read the AP story on this I read in today's StarTrib. It basically described Berlusconi as a US ally holding against an opposition block that "includes Communists". Yeah, and no mention of Berlusconi's not-so-reformed fascist Mussolini loving coalition partners, or the wonderfully racist Lega Nord that make up a hell of a lot larger part of his coalition than the Communists do of Prodi's. And of course ignores the fact that the Communists only reluctantly came aboard. And of course it then narrowly glossed over Berlusconi's corruption and then mentioned Berlusconi accusing Prodi of being used by the Communists to undermine democracy (despite the fact there is no indictation of the Communist Refoundation ever being undemocratic). You'd expect Italy to become a new Soviet republic under a Prodi government juding only from that article.

I'd take the "Northern League" long before I sided with Communists frankly!

[minionofmidas]

Seems this is it. Including the foreign vote (?) the seat allocation will be 340 left to 277 right. The Senate will be 154 left to 155 right, which leaves the Senators for life decisive.  But, truth be told, Berlusconi did give it a much better run than I'd expect beforehand. He might stay around to lead the coalition for a while (until the new government manages to jail him, at least). 

The House figure is without Foreign and Val d'Aosta (since the House has 630 seats). The Senate figure seems to include Val d'Aosta but not foreign... it all depends on whether the Left will win 3 or 4 of the 6 foreign Senators then...

[minionofmidas]

Anyone who still believes in the "liberal media" should've read the AP story on this I read in today's StarTrib. It basically described Berlusconi as a US ally holding against an opposition block that "includes Communists". Yeah, and no mention of Berlusconi's not-so-reformed fascist Mussolini loving coalition partners, or the wonderfully racist Lega Nord that make up a hell of a lot larger part of his coalition than the Communists do of Prodi's. And of course ignores the fact that the Communists only reluctantly came aboard. And of course it then narrowly glossed over Berlusconi's corruption and then mentioned Berlusconi accusing Prodi of being used by the Communists to undermine democracy (despite the fact there is no indictation of the Communist Refoundation ever being undemocratic). You'd expect Italy to become a new Soviet republic under a Prodi government juding only from that article.

I'd take the "Northern League" long before I sided with Communists frankly!

WHich just proves you know nothing whatsoever of Italy... actually... going by 1945 to 90... it hardly matters what you put instead of "Northern LEague".

[andrewa]

Expatriate senators: Prodi 4 Berlusconi 1 Latino America Italians 1 
So Senate: Prodi 158 Berlusconi 156 Latino America 1
We have also seven "life senators": Rita Levi Montalcini, Sergio Pininfarina,
Emilio Colombo, Giorgio Napolitano, Giulio Andreotti, and former republic presidents Oscar Luigi Scalfaro and Francesco Cossiga.
Normally they don't vote in Senate...But they are 5 centerleft, 1 centerright and one free horse (Cossiga)
House: Prodi 340, Berlusconi 277, waiting 13 expatriates deputies.

[minionofmidas]

How were the Senators from abroad partitioned between the continents?

Also, maybe you can explain this to me...
Why the hell did UDEUR, SVP, and DC-Nuovo PSI receive any seats? I thought there's a 2% threshold?
I guess there may have been an excemption clause for a party that only runs in one region and polls almost 50% there (SVP), but what about the other two?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess Berlusconi will now try the Al Gore strategy.


Nevertheless, it's time for me to say:
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have to admit that dear Silvio being screwed by what is, in effect, his own gerrymander, is really quite funny...

[Bono]

The question now is--how long will the left wing coalition last.

[afleitch]

The question now is--how long will the left wing coalition last.

That was one of the interesting things during the election. Berlusconi actually led a fairly stable government and remained PM for a long time by Italian standards. Prodi's coalition, looking at their past record is less likely to remain stable andn is more politically diverse. It would be a travesty if Italy went back to the shifting 'coalitions within coalitions' of the past.

[YoMartin]

I´m a bit out-of-date with the recent legal changes. I´ve read the Senate has taken greater importance, but I assume it still can´t elect/censor a government, right?

CNN and BBC both seem to imply that if the two chambers are controlled by different coalitions, the government can't be formed. In that case a new election is necessary after a few months (there'd be a caretaker government in between). So, who are the senators for life?

If this is the case, we can no longer consider Berlusconi´s reform a pro-gobernability reform. Australia used to have lower and upper chambers with similar powers to elect/censor governments, and it once led to a crisis solved by... the Queen of England´s delegate there. There is just no way to solve a dispute between both chambers (unless the reform also empowered the presidency, but still...). It is even more unusual to have a chamber with some non-elected members able to elect/censor governments.

So the foreign senators went 4-1-1, no 3-2-1 as I expected (the South American list ran an impressive election, specially in getting out the vote -over 50% voted in Argentina, over 60% in Uruguay). In the latter scenario, the senate would be tied 157-157. Luckily that didn´t happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The question now is--how long will the left wing coalition last.

Not really; the question is how long can Prodi remain the head of the left wing coalition. The traditional pattern of Italian politics is for a coalition to "collapse" and for a new one, made up of exactly the same names, but shuffled around a bit, to be formed very soon afterwards.
If the results are what they seem to be, there's nothing to stop the Left ruling for the next five years if that's what they want to do.

It would be a travesty if Italy went back to the shifting 'coalitions within coalitions' of the past.

Perhaps. But it would be better than what's gone on for the past five years.