Italy

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Have there been any recent polls? Right now what does the percentage chance that Berlusconi rightfully goes down are?

[minionofmidas]

Seems to be fairly neck-and-neck.

[andrewa]

Polls of this week (election day 9 and 10 avril):
EKMA Centerleft Prodi 51,8 Centerright Berlusconi 47,2
SWG Prodi 51,0  Berlusconi 47,8
IPR Prodi 52,1 Berlusconi 47,4
Abacus Prodi 51,5 Berlusconi 47,0
Are european pollsters payed by italian newspapers,
there's an american pollster PSB Penn, Schoen & Berland payed by mr. Berlusconi:
PSB: Berlusconi 48,4 Prodi 48,2

We started from 52-44 in september; mr. Berlusconi, during a strong campaign using his televisions, calls at arms part of centerright people with intention to don't vote.

Now I want to see the effect of yesterday's President Bush endorsement of Berlusconi.

[YoMartin]

What are Bush´s numbers in Italy anyway? It´s good for Berlusconi to visit Bush right now? Well, most voters would probably want to be on the side of the only superpower, but I guess this could boost turnout among anti-war voters. And if even Kohl supports Prodi...

[minionofmidas]

And if even Kohl supports Prodi...

That was notable especially because FI's admission to the EPP was all Kohl's doing. Can you spell "buyer's remorse"?

[andrewa]

And if even Kohl supports Prodi...

That was notable especially because FI's admission to the EPP was all Kohl's doing. Can you spell "buyer's remorse"?

In Italy, Kohl supporting Prodi had a little space on newspapers and no space on TV. So people doesn't know.
One week before election day, in Italy will be a EPP meeting, full covered by Berlusconi's TV, with Kohl. So italian people will think Kohl endorses Berlusconi. But it would not change mind of voters. 

[andrewa]

What are Bush´s numbers in Italy anyway? It´s good for Berlusconi to visit Bush right now? Well, most voters would probably want to be on the side of the only superpower, but I guess this could boost turnout among anti-war voters. And if even Kohl supports Prodi...

I don't know Bush numbers in Italy, but I think they are not higher than in USA. 70% people is antiwar. But italian centerleft had not a good reply to Berlusconi - Bush meeting. The only answer was by mr. Diliberto, leader of 2% "party of italian communists", that saw "Bush and Berlusconi shaked hands dirty of blood..." A silly, stupid, out of point, poor, backfired speech. Better say "No comment". 

[Umengus]

Well Italy is in very bad shape on economy, social,... But Berlusconi is still good in the polls. Prodi is not a "sexy" candidate and if Berlusconi does a very good campaign (on terrorim, islam, insecurity, moral values,...) he can win. This election seems to me like german election.   

[andrewa]

Well Italy is in very bad shape on economy, social,... But Berlusconi is still good in the polls. Prodi is not a "sexy" candidate and if Berlusconi does a very good campaign (on terrorim, islam, insecurity, moral values,...) he can win. This election seems to me like german election.   

Today's polls:
IPR Prodi 52,2 Berlusconi 47,5
Ekma: Prodi 52 Berlusconi 47,6
Prodi is not "sexy", but now Berlusconi no more, although plastic surgery and hair graft.
Berlusconi can do a very good campaign because he controls public TV (45% audience) and is the owner of private TV (45% audience).
Issues you emphasise are not important issues for italian people.
And about terrorism and Islam, 70% of people wants italian soldiers return from Iraq right now. 
Berlusconi can't campaign using moral values (several trials for judge bribery,  no tax payment, birth of second daughter out of his marriage...)   

[Umengus]

Well Italy is in very bad shape on economy, social,... But Berlusconi is still good in the polls. Prodi is not a "sexy" candidate and if Berlusconi does a very good campaign (on terrorim, islam, insecurity, moral values,...) he can win. This election seems to me like german election.   

Today's polls:
IPR Prodi 52,2 Berlusconi 47,5
Ekma: Prodi 52 Berlusconi 47,6
Prodi is not "sexy", but now Berlusconi no more, although plastic surgery and hair graft.
Berlusconi can do a very good campaign because he controls public TV (45% audience) and is the owner of private TV (45% audience).
Issues you emphasise are not important issues for italian people.
And about terrorism and Islam, 70% of people wants italian soldiers return from Iraq right now. 
Berlusconi can't campaign using moral values (several trials for judge bribery,  no tax payment, birth of second daughter out of his marriage...)   

The great advantage of Berlusconi is that he can put on the agenda (with the collaboration of his tv's, newspapers,...) problems wich are traditionnaly good for the right: security in the streets, terrorism (iraq is not terrorism), moral values (Berlusconi is not an example but Bush wasn't even), taxes. On these problems, the left is weak. In fact, if you has the control of agenda, you has a great luck to win. It's a universal law (cfr USA, France,...) in politics.

[andrewa]

Well Italy is in very bad shape on economy, social,... But Berlusconi is still good in the polls. Prodi is not a "sexy" candidate and if Berlusconi does a very good campaign (on terrorim, islam, insecurity, moral values,...) he can win. This election seems to me like german election.   

Today's polls:
IPR Prodi 52,2 Berlusconi 47,5
Ekma: Prodi 52 Berlusconi 47,6
Prodi is not "sexy", but now Berlusconi no more, although plastic surgery and hair graft.
Berlusconi can do a very good campaign because he controls public TV (45% audience) and is the owner of private TV (45% audience).
Issues you emphasise are not important issues for italian people.
And about terrorism and Islam, 70% of people wants italian soldiers return from Iraq right now. 
Berlusconi can't campaign using moral values (several trials for judge bribery,  no tax payment, birth of second daughter out of his marriage...)   

The great advantage of Berlusconi is that he can put on the agenda (with the collaboration of his tv's, newspapers,...) problems wich are traditionnaly good for the right: security in the streets, terrorism (iraq is not terrorism), moral values (Berlusconi is not an example but Bush wasn't even), taxes. On these problems, the left is weak. In fact, if you has the control of agenda, you has a great luck to win. It's a universal law (cfr USA, France,...) in politics.

Yes, you' re all right. The agenda setting is very important, and you can do it if you control tv's, newspaper.
And not only the agenda, in Italy you can bet about the "october (avril) surprise": a Bin Laden message, the capture of mafia chief Bernando Provenzano, abduction of italians in Iraq and their liberation, some secret services files involving centerleft chiefs...   

[andrewa]

Interestingly Partito Pensionati (a member of ED-subgroup) actually joined Prodi's coalition. Very intersting manouvre.

Partito Pensionati (english we can say Party of Retired People) was Berlusconi allied. Now it goes with centerleft; it totalizes 1,0%-1,5% in polls.
This is due to five years ago Berlusconi's promise to increase retired people wages, promise he didn't maintain.
But a part of Partito Pensionati stay with Berlusconi, and will go to elections with a symbol very similar to original.   

[Keystone Phil]

Just a week away. Any comments/news?

[andrewa]

Just a week away. Any comments/news?

This night there will be the last TV Debate Prodi-Berlusconi.
It is the second one; the first, two weeks ago, won by Mr. Prodi (55-45).
One our and a half , two journalists, without public, the same answer time for each campaigner (Mr. Prodi staff wanted "american" rules in debate).
We are now in "no polls" period; but "secret polls" indicate a three points Prodi coalition advantage (51-48).
It was 52-47 two weeks ago, now it is due to a strong TV campaign by Mr Berlusconi about fear of new taxes. 
 

[andrewa]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

[WMS]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Tell your idiotic Refoundation Communists to cooperate with the rest of Prodi's coalition and you'll probably win...

[Jens]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Tell your idiotic Refoundation Communists to cooperate with the rest of Prodi's coalition and you'll probably win...

They have promised not to do such a thing again - something with realising that sometimes the alternative is much worse

On  a related matter, Berlusconi called the people who votes for the oppossion, "fools and idiots"

[WMS]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Tell your idiotic Refoundation Communists to cooperate with the rest of Prodi's coalition and you'll probably win...

They have promised not to do such a thing again - something with realising that sometimes the alternative is much worse

On  a related matter, Berlusconi called the people who votes for the oppossion, "fools and idiots"

What? They actually showed a trace of common sense? Now you'll be telling me the sun will rise in the south or something like that.

I've heard it was a harsher phrase than that...

[MasterJedi]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

I'd send in the marines to make sure Berlusconi wins.

[True Democrat]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Is the 21th century in some alternate universe?

[Jens]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Tell your idiotic Refoundation Communists to cooperate with the rest of Prodi's coalition and you'll probably win...

They have promised not to do such a thing again - something with realising that sometimes the alternative is much worse

On  a related matter, Berlusconi called the people who votes for the oppossion, "fools and idiots"

What? They actually showed a trace of common sense? Now you'll be telling me the sun will rise in the south or something like that.

I've heard it was a harsher phrase than that...

It was. I just don't know how to translate it, but it was up there on the same level as the babyboiling Chinese and the SDP KZ-komandant.

The funny thing is that these days we are discussing the admission of Bulgaria and Rumenia into the EU, but  they will probably be excluded from the legal coorperation because of problems with corruption and russian mafia, while one of the larger memberstate has a PM who is world class manipulater, who limits the freedom of the media and creates laws to get him and his friends out of trouble.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Tell your idiotic Refoundation Communists to cooperate with the rest of Prodi's coalition and you'll probably win...

They have promised not to do such a thing again - something with realising that sometimes the alternative is much worse

On  a related matter, Berlusconi called the people who votes for the oppossion, "fools and idiots"

What? They actually showed a trace of common sense? Now you'll be telling me the sun will rise in the south or something like that.

I've heard it was a harsher phrase than that...

I think Berlusconi called Italians voting for his opponents "coglioni", which is a slang for testicles.

[andrewa]

Monday night mr. Berlusconi has lost the second TV debate.
So tonight, in violation of laws that rules italian campaign, he will go alone in his principal TV Canale 5 (Channel 5), having a two hours interview with his journalists, in maximum audience moment.
Could you american people send your marines in Italy, like 62 years ago, in order to save democracy ? Please, help us, don't leave us alone under the fascism of the 21th century.

Tell your idiotic Refoundation Communists to cooperate with the rest of Prodi's coalition and you'll probably win...

They have promised not to do such a thing again - something with realising that sometimes the alternative is much worse

On  a related matter, Berlusconi called the people who votes for the oppossion, "fools and idiots"

What? They actually showed a trace of common sense? Now you'll be telling me the sun will rise in the south or something like that.

I've heard it was a harsher phrase than that...

I think Berlusconi called Italians voting for his opponents "coglioni", which is a slang for testicles.

Yes, it is slang for testicles, it is like fools, dickheads (?)...
But today he says: "I didn't mean people who votes the opposition, I called "coglioni" my old 2001 voters that don't want to vote me now..."
At the end, yesterday he didn't go to his television due to intervention of Communication Autorithy and oppositions remarks.
So today is a normal day: mr. Berlusconi talks about his last trial, TV give us news about an AlQaeda bombs attack in Italy (Milano underground and Bologna church of San Petronio) defeated by policy one month ago.
Sunday (7am-10pm) and Monday (7am-3pm) we'll go voting.       
Today Mr. Berlusconi calls a necessity of an ONU force in order to have a sure and not dirty result of election.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it is slang for testicles, it is like fools, dickheads (?)...

Dickheads would be the closest methinks.

I suddenly have an amusing mental image of John Major describing voters leaving the Tories in '97 as "dickheads"

Any recent polls?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any recent polls?

Italian law forbids to publish any polls in the two weeks before an election.

The most recent ones showed L'Unione between 51.5% and 53.5% and Casa delle Libertà between 46% and 48%.

But perhaps andrewa will know more.