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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #100 on: April 10, 2006, 07:38:24 PM »
Quote from: ag on April 10, 2006, 07:25:07 PM
EDIT 36 precincts to report. Correction: the left lead is 27.5 thousand (excitement, excitement). But almost all the remaining precincts are in Lazio II.

What are you calling for?
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ag
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« Reply #101 on: April 10, 2006, 07:40:35 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on April 10, 2006, 07:38:24 PM
Quote from: ag on April 10, 2006, 07:25:07 PM
EDIT 36 precincts to report. Correction: the left lead is 27.5 thousand (excitement, excitement). But almost all the remaining precincts are in Lazio II.

What are you calling for?

Too close to call. Recounts likely.

By the way, Valle d'Aosta results are not included here, since they have their own electoral system, not included in nationwide PR.  Their member will be from Autonomie Liberté Democratie. They are, as far as I understand, "non-aligned". Or are they?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2006, 07:45:35 PM »
Is Prodi claiming victory? This webcast seems to be of L'Ulivo's rally.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #103 on: April 10, 2006, 07:48:43 PM »
The situation is truly amazing! I´ve been all day following the recount and by 16GMT (when Berlusconi was still 10 points down) something started looking bad...

A tip: the result could be decided by the votes in... Argentina! (I`m actually not sure whether these votes are added to the totals or they belong to a different constituency, they´ve changed the electoral law recently). They haven´t started counting yet, but the link to follow it is http://www.corriere.it/Speciali/Politica/2006/Politiche2006/SEAS/camera/estero/20060409000000_18_NAZIONE_260.shtml). Argentina has thousands and thousands of italian citizens (including myself, but I didn´t vote; my favourite LA ROSA NEL PUGNO wasn´t running here, altough now I regret  not voting against Berlusconi) and the campaign here was quite intense (ie, many Berlusconi ministers campaigned here).
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ag
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« Reply #104 on: April 10, 2006, 07:49:08 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on April 10, 2006, 07:45:35 PM
Is Prodi claiming victory? This webcast seems to be of L'Ulivo's rally.

Judging by the front page of Repubblica he does. But he'd need support of foreign and life senators in the upper house.
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ag
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« Reply #105 on: April 10, 2006, 07:50:29 PM »
Quote from: Aethelberth on April 10, 2006, 07:47:15 PM
The Val d'Aosta people used to be part of I Democratici so may be its more Prodi than Silvio

Would not matter in the lower house, though. The way the electoral system has been adjusted, if you have an advantage, you have it huge. The Senate, though, is another matter.
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ag
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« Reply #106 on: April 10, 2006, 07:51:31 PM »
Quote from: YoMartin on April 10, 2006, 07:48:43 PM
The situation is truly amazing! I´ve been all day following the recount and by 16GMT (when Berlusconi was still 10 points down) something started looking bad...

A tip: the result could be decided by the votes in... Argentina! (I`m actually not sure whether these votes are added to the totals or they belong to a different constituency, they´ve changed the electoral law recently). They haven´t started counting yet, but the link to follow it is http://www.corriere.it/Speciali/Politica/2006/Politiche2006/SEAS/camera/estero/20060409000000_18_NAZIONE_260.shtml). Argentina has thousands and thousands of italian citizens (including myself, but I didn´t vote; my favourite LA ROSA NEL PUGNO wasn´t running here, altough now I regret  not voting against Berlusconi) and the campaign here was quite intense (ie, many Berlusconi ministers campaigned here).

Foreign voters vote in separate constituencies, there are several all around the world. I am not sure if they count for determining who gets the bonus for the winning party, though.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #107 on: April 10, 2006, 07:51:56 PM »
If Berlusconi wins, it will be the biggest Roman farce this side of 476AD and that's saying something Tongue

Exciting stuff though Wink

Dave
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YoMartin
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« Reply #108 on: April 10, 2006, 07:52:13 PM »
Fassino (UNIONE): "Il centrosinistra ha vinto le elezioni"
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ag
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« Reply #109 on: April 10, 2006, 07:53:29 PM »
For a while the numbers on the page have been stationary: w/ 35 precincts left (34 of these in Lazio 2), a left lead of just under 27.5 thousand. But, perhaps, they have stopped updating in the excitement? The left, clearly, claims victory.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #110 on: April 10, 2006, 07:53:40 PM »
That´s exactly my doubt. If they do influence on the bouns, they`ll be the deciding factor...

Quote from: ag on April 10, 2006, 07:51:31 PM
Quote from: YoMartin on April 10, 2006, 07:48:43 PM
The situation is truly amazing! I´ve been all day following the recount and by 16GMT (when Berlusconi was still 10 points down) something started looking bad...

A tip: the result could be decided by the votes in... Argentina! (I`m actually not sure whether these votes are added to the totals or they belong to a different constituency, they´ve changed the electoral law recently). They haven´t started counting yet, but the link to follow it is http://www.corriere.it/Speciali/Politica/2006/Politiche2006/SEAS/camera/estero/20060409000000_18_NAZIONE_260.shtml). Argentina has thousands and thousands of italian citizens (including myself, but I didn´t vote; my favourite LA ROSA NEL PUGNO wasn´t running here, altough now I regret  not voting against Berlusconi) and the campaign here was quite intense (ie, many Berlusconi ministers campaigned here).

Foreign voters vote in separate constituencies, there are several all around the world. I am not sure if they count for determining who gets the bonus for the winning party, though.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #111 on: April 10, 2006, 07:55:49 PM »
Quote from: ag on April 10, 2006, 07:53:29 PM
For a while the numbers on the page have been stationary: w/ 35 precincts left (34 of these in Lazio 2), a left lead of just under 27.5 thousand. But, perhaps, they have stopped updating in the excitement? The left, clearly, claims victory.

Yeah, it still has the same numbers up that were there about 15 minutes ago. This just has to take one more turn in Berlusconi's favor and I'll be satisfied. Just a few thousand more votes...  Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #112 on: April 10, 2006, 07:57:15 PM »
Quote from: ag on April 10, 2006, 07:53:29 PM
But, perhaps, they have stopped updating in the excitement?

That happend at times during the 2005 U.K elections
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YoMartin
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« Reply #113 on: April 10, 2006, 07:57:25 PM »
Been checking the recounts "all´estero": Germany could bring +10.000 vote difference for Prodi.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #114 on: April 10, 2006, 07:58:56 PM »
The difference will even be larger in France it seems.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #115 on: April 10, 2006, 07:59:02 PM »
ABC News updated nine minutes ago, saying it's still too close to call, for anyone that cares about what an American outlet has to say.  
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YoMartin
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« Reply #116 on: April 10, 2006, 08:00:05 PM »
The US looks better for Berlusconi, but it has much less voters than I expected.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #117 on: April 10, 2006, 08:00:46 PM »
Translation?

Fassino: "Abbiamo la maggioranza a Montecitorio": 340 deputati contro 277. A Palazzo Madama la Cdl avanti di un seggio. L'Unione potrebbe prendere 4 senatori all'estero. L'attesa dei leader. Contestata troupe di Canale 5. Il ministro dell'Interno Pisanu da Berlusconi. I sondaggisti gettano la spugna: "Impossibile capire. Proiezioni non più attendibili"
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ag
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« Reply #118 on: April 10, 2006, 08:01:35 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on April 10, 2006, 07:55:49 PM
Quote from: ag on April 10, 2006, 07:53:29 PM
For a while the numbers on the page have been stationary: w/ 35 precincts left (34 of these in Lazio 2), a left lead of just under 27.5 thousand. But, perhaps, they have stopped updating in the excitement? The left, clearly, claims victory.

Yeah, it still has the same numbers up that were there about 15 minutes ago. This just has to take one more turn in Berlusconi's favor and I'll be satisfied. Just a few thousand more votes...  Smiley

Unlikely, at least within Italy. We are talking of just over 2% of the precincts in Lazio 2. Right leads left there by just under 118 thousand votes, so 2% is less than 3 thousand votes. Even if all of the votes there go right (extremely unlikely) 2% of about 1 mln. votes in Lazio 2 is only 20 thousand. Not going to make a difference. Unless there are recounts, this seems to be it.
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ag
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« Reply #119 on: April 10, 2006, 08:06:17 PM »
Foreign vote is leaning left. Overwhelmingly so in Europe, but also in North-Central America, and in the "rest of the world". In South America there is a three-way splity, with a local "south american" association narrowly leading, followed by Unione, followed by Forza d'Italia. This will actually allow the left to close some of the gap in the Senate.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #120 on: April 10, 2006, 08:09:13 PM »
What's the best link to follow the results?

Dave
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #121 on: April 10, 2006, 08:10:15 PM »
Quote from: Senator Dave Hawk on April 10, 2006, 08:09:13 PM
What's the best link to follow the results?

Dave

http://www.repubblica.it/speciale/2006/elezioni/camera/index.html  Stop updating a few minutes ago though.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #122 on: April 10, 2006, 08:10:58 PM »
For foreign votes I have http://www.corriere.it/Speciali/Politica/2006/Politiche2006/SEAS/camera/estero/20060409000000_18_ESTERO_ES.shtml
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ag
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« Reply #123 on: April 10, 2006, 08:11:04 PM »
Just 34 precincts left, all in Lazio 2.  It is still over 27 thousand votes left lead: 18.990.408 to 18.963.290
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ag
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« Reply #124 on: April 10, 2006, 08:14:51 PM »
The "governability bonus" is going to screw Berlusconi (well, he himself thought up this electoral system, didn't he?). Had it not been for it, he'd be able to make Prodi's life impossible. This way, he'd have a much harder time doing it (that with a 1 or 2 seat plurality in the Senate, but w/ the left comfortably controlling the house). 
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