OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[2016]

Good News for Republicans already: Josh Mandel is out and done with Politics altogether.

Likely GOP Candidates: Matt Dolan, Attorney General Yost and Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

Certainly against Yost or LaRose Brown would be the Underdog.

Brown is too liberal for the State of Ohio and his luck thus far is that he ran against two incredibly weak Candidates in 2012 (Josh Mandel) and 2018 (Jim Renacci).

[2016]

BREAKING NEWS
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has officially filled Paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for Senate against Senator Sherrod Brown.

So, it looks like Senate Republicans have landed their first big Recruit for the 2024 Senate Elections.

https://twitter.com/POTUS41Bush/status/1636423718283952134

Very big Deal! LaRose is clearly the strongest Candidate Republicans can put forward.

[2016]

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose attended DeSantis Event in Ohio yesterday. Read into that what you will.

If LaRose runs he will crush Moreno and Matt Dolan and NRSC Chair Steve Daines will most likely endorse LaRose.

[2016]

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose attended DeSantis Event in Ohio yesterday. Read into that what you will.

If LaRose runs he will crush Moreno and Matt Dolan and NRSC Chair Steve Daines will most likely endorse LaRose.

The primary will be interesting; it'll be a proxy war between Trump and Daines. But whichever of Moreno, Dolan, or LaRose wins the primary will defeat Brown. It's that simple.

I disagree with you that Brown is a GONER. Sure, against LaRose it would be very tough but against Dolan and particularly Moreno Brown would have a shot I think.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1649467248535322625?t=plafCpgBbWv52Rl5...

Mate, I thought this would possibly happen! Jim Justice Entrance into the West Virginia Senate Race could possibly set up a Domino Effect for other States such as Ohio and Montana.

First Justice, 2nd LaRose and 3rd hopefully MT AG Austin Knudsen. Those would A+ Recruits for the NRSC.

[2016]

Despite Obama winning Ohio by 3% in 2012 Brown only beat Josh Mandel by 6%. So assuming the GOP candidate in this race isn't like him (very likely) and Trump wins Ohio by 8+ again (probable), it's very tricky for Brown to win.

First of all, Trump isn't guaranteed to be the nominee. He's favored but there's still an opening for a candidate like DeSantis to pull off the upset.

Secondly, Trump (or any Republican) could theoretically win the race by more of a J.D. Vance margin than his 2016 and 2020 margins.

Finally, if Brown runs as much ahead of Biden as he did Cordray in 2018, he wins.

Even if Trump wins Ohio say only by 6 Frank LaRose is a GAZILLON better Candidate compared to Mandel (2012) and Renacci (2018).

LaRose won Re-Election by nearly 20 Points...
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/ohio/secretary-of-state

[2016]

Despite Obama winning Ohio by 3% in 2012 Brown only beat Josh Mandel by 6%. So assuming the GOP candidate in this race isn't like him (very likely) and Trump wins Ohio by 8+ again (probable), it's very tricky for Brown to win.

First of all, Trump isn't guaranteed to be the nominee. He's favored but there's still an opening for a candidate like DeSantis to pull off the upset.

Secondly, Trump (or any Republican) could theoretically win the race by more of a J.D. Vance margin than his 2016 and 2020 margins.

Finally, if Brown runs as much ahead of Biden as he did Cordray in 2018, he wins.

Even if Trump wins Ohio say only by 6 Frank LaRose is a GAZILLON better Candidate compared to Mandel (2012) and Renacci (2018).

LaRose won Re-Election by nearly 20 Points...
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/ohio/secretary-of-state

Yes, against a joke-tier candidate so week that not even I voted for her.  There was nothing impressive about that victory.

Still, LaRose is a Statewide Office Holder while Renacci wasn't and Mandel was just a backbencher in 2012. Evidence: Mandel got trounced by Vance last year.

Against Moreno and Dolan the Race would be Toss Up/Tilt Brown, against LaRose it would be Lean R.

Also, in a Presidential Year there will be far less Ticket Splitting. Ohio is pretty much Trump Country along with Iowa and Florida.

[2016]

Title of this thread needs renamed. This nomination is Moreno’s as soon as he gets Trump’s endorsement.

Moreno will not beat Sherrod Brown so we will have that liberal fool for another 6 years in a State that is trending increasingly Red!

[2016]

It'd be a shame to lose Sherrod Brown. He's not perfect, not that any politician comes close, but congress needs folks like him that economically prioritize working Americans.

I'm far from an expert on Ohio politics, but LaRose seems like he'd be a strong candidate in the general. Statewide office, Bronze Star, green beret. His votes on gerrymandering and abortion restrictions would turn off some voters, but Ohio is trending Republican - which also means he got to thread the needle between running state elections and Trump's lies.

Not to say Moreno couldn't win the general, he just seems like another of these weaker, stupider candidates that keep tripping over their own asses. There grounds to think a Trump endorsement makes him the clear favorite?

Are you kidding us? Since he got elected in 2006 Sherrod Brown's Senate Voting Record is more alingned with Elizabeth Warren than with Ohioans. I don't want a guy as a Senator from the State of Ohio who thinks the Buckeye State is Massachusetts.

[2016]

It'd be a shame to lose Sherrod Brown. He's not perfect, not that any politician comes close, but congress needs folks like him that economically prioritize working Americans.

I'm far from an expert on Ohio politics, but LaRose seems like he'd be a strong candidate in the general. Statewide office, Bronze Star, green beret. His votes on gerrymandering and abortion restrictions would turn off some voters, but Ohio is trending Republican - which also means he got to thread the needle between running state elections and Trump's lies.

Not to say Moreno couldn't win the general, he just seems like another of these weaker, stupider candidates that keep tripping over their own asses. There grounds to think a Trump endorsement makes him the clear favorite?

Are you kidding us? Since he got elected in 2006 Sherrod Brown's Senate Voting Record is more alingned with Elizabeth Warren than with Ohioans. I don't want a guy as a Senator from the State of Ohio who thinks the Buckeye State is Massachusetts.

No offense, but you're the "Trump is a Democrat who Democrats love" "arrest people for speech" guy and your rants are irrelevant to my opinions.

Trump is a CLOSET DEMOCRAT. He championed Democratic Policies for the vast Majority of his Life. He even contributed money to Hillary Clinton and Charlie Crist. He is a CON MAN who hasn't done anything substantive in his Life except hurting people.

[2016]

Frank LaRose has won two Statewide Elections as Ohios Secretary of State, likely going to be endorsed by a vast Majority of the Ohio Statewide Office Holders such as Lt. Governor Husted and AG Yost not to mention potentially Governor DeWine.

The biggest Endorsement won't be Trump in this Primary, it will be Governor DeWine who has a Statewide Network and the particularly Candidate he endorses can tap into.

Frank LaRose is the clear Frontrunner if he runs. The OH GOP Senate Primary 2024 won't be as messy as 2022 I think and I am sure unlike Rick Scott current NRSC Chair Steve Daines will also help select the best Candidate against Sherrod Brown.

[2016]

Frank LaRose is the most electable Candidate of all the Candidates running against Sherrod Brown. If he wins the Primary under whatever circumstances Sherrod Brown is DOA!

[2016]

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is going to win the Republican Senate Primary. Why would Ohio Voters choose two Candidates who have lost Statewide Primary Races in 2022, Moreno and Dolan.

Biden isn't going to win Ohio even if Trump is the Nominee. Ohio is Republican Territory!

Senate Republicans have received some massive breaks over the last few weeks.

# 1 West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) announces Senate Run.
# 2 Last Week PA State Senator Doug Mastriano (R) announced he would not run for Senate in Pennsylvania likely clearing the way for Hedge Fund Manager & 2022' Senate Candidate Dave McCormick (R) to run.
# 3 Today Ohio Congressman Warren Davidson (R) announced he would not run for Senate which turns the Ohio Republican Senate Primary into a 3-way Primary between LaRose, Moreno and Dolan.

Mastriano & Davidson clearly were the two most unelectable Candidates considering Senate Bids for 2024 and they are both out now.

Thus far and it's very early in the 2024 Election Cycle the NRSC Recruiting Efforts under Steve Daines are going a lot better compared to 2022 when Rick Scott was the NRSC Chair.

[2016]

Clearly LaRose endorsing Trump is all about getting his Endorsement.

LaRose, of the 3 Republican Candidates running to challenge Brown, is the most electable.

And he is going to beat Brown if he is the Republican Senate Nominee.

[2016]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

All what Republicans need to do next year is win West Virginia & Ohio Senate Races and Bidens Agenda is crippled even if he wins Re-Election and Democrats win the House back.

AND that is IMO very doable.

[2016]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

Yeah, to be clear I don't think LaRose is getting the Trump endorsement. However, I do think that this is probably the most effective way to keep Trump from endorsing anyone at all. We'll see if it works.

Trump endorses Candidates based on POLLING and Polling alone. Remember the Alabama Republican Senate Primary where Trump first endorsed Mo Brooks. Once Brooks started to tank Trump rescinded his Endorsement and then in the Runoff when it became apparent that Katie Britt was going to crush Brooks, Trump endorsed Britt.

[2016]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Moreno will get clobbered in the Suburbs. Senator Brown has just won Re-Election.

[2016]

Dolan gets the Endorsement of Ohio Governor Mike DeWine per The Hill

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1767326143240130810

[2016]

Cook Political Report says Ohio Republican Senate Primary is a Toss Up despite Bernie Moreno receiving Dinald Trumps Endorsement.
The Question is: Will Trump outweigh the combined Endorsements of former Senator Portman & current Governor DeWine, who both have endorsed Dolan, or not.

Hopefully Senate Republicans are not in this Position again like they were in 2022 when they had to spend 30M $ to prop up Vance.

[2016]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

You can’t say “barring a wave” because 2010+2014 is when polarization really picked up. A lot of those incumbents were thought to be untouchable. There’s a lot of rewriting history now, but no one in 2008 would’ve guessed those seats collapsed as quickly as they did. The fact that people like Dan Boren ran for the exits in 2012 shows that there were quite a lot (also in states like NC) who knew they would be wiped out in 2012 and thus didn’t run again). On this note, if anyone wants to seriously argue Nick Rahall or John Barrow would’ve survived 2020, I’m willing to listen. In 2018, the pattern largely was the seats that were targeted were the ones that fell (defense in NV/AZ aside). OH, WV, and MT were largely deprioritized in 2018 and this time they are up on presidential ballots. The amount of candidates who actually survived in such a hostile district in 2020 (8 pts or worse for the opposite party) were basically a few Republicans in California, and Harley Rouda aside, those incumbents/candidates had all underperformed in their previous election.

The fact that over the last two Presidential Elections only Senator Susan Collins survived while her State was going for Biden should scare Democrats. Split Ticket Outcomes are now far more likely during Midterms then in POTUS Elections.

[2016]

I think Moreno ultimately gets bailed out by Trump’s rally.

Could be too little to late though. Also, Moreno & the Trump folks are underestimating the Political Machinery former Senator Rob Portman & Governor DeWine have in the State and Dolan got both of them onboard. There is also no risk for DeWine going against Trump since he is termed out likely to be succeeded by his Lt. Governor Jon Husted.

Both, Portman & DeWine are massive institutions in the State.

[2016]

Goodbye Sherrod Brown after voting to kill the Mayorkas Impeachment.

[2016]

Goodbye Sherrod Brown after voting to kill the Mayorkas Impeachment.

Nobody’s going to remember this come November. If Brown loses it won’t be because of this.

Immigration along with the Economy are the Top Issues for Voters and unless Brown can change that he's going to lose. Having already an Abortion Amendment on the Ballot in 2023 won't help Brown either.