Texas 2022 megathread

[_.]

Beto O'Rourke is essentially Nikki Fried

He will be curbstomped if he wins the nomination

Possibly by a double-digit margin with the likes of Cornyn 2020 and Abbott 2018

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Beta O'Rourke will only hurt the Texas Democratic Party.

Only question is R+10 or R+15?

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Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

I think it's gotta be worth more than two cents
Great analysis!

I'm surprised you didn't mention O'Rourke's unpopularity and extreme failure in polls, though
Do you expect that Democrat-leaners who may have been turned off by his comments may be forced into his lane due to polarization and nationalization, or will they look towards Abbott's relative moderate image (if he has one)?

Also, what do you expect to occur in the crucial counties of Tarrant, Collin, and Denton?

[_.]

The Texan people will remember how fast Beta O'Rourke was about to sell away religious freedom for a few extra votes, just saying.

Anyone else running against Abbott on the Democratic side?

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Is there any likelihood Matthew McConaughey could become the Arnold Schwarzenegger of Texas, if he actually decides to run?

SHOCK POLL: Matthew McConaughey Tops Texas Gov. Greg Abbott By 8 in Head-to-Head Matchup, Clobbers Beto Nearly 2-to-1

Matthew McConaghey’s chances of becoming Texas governor are looking alright, alright, alright according to a shocking new major poll.

According to a survey released by the University of Texas and the Dallas Morning News, the actor — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — tops current Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by 8 points. In all, 43 percent of respondents say they would back McConaughey, 35 percent would support Abbott, and 22 percent would pick someone else.

McConaughey fared even better against another prominent candidate in the 2022 race. According to the poll, the actor would trounce Democrat Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by a 49-27 margin. O’Rourke, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2018, then flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, officially threw his hat in the ring earlier this week.

Hope so! He's alright, alright, alright!

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University of Texas at Austin in Texas

"If the 2022 Republican primary election for attorney general
were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"

Ken Paxton - 47%
George P. Bush - 21%
Eva Guzman - 16%
Louie Gohmert - 15%
Paxton + 26%

1,200 Registered Voters living throughout the state of Texas were surveyed between January 28 and February 07, 2021.
The margin of error is ±2.83 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.


Bush makes slight gains from 16% in October to 21% in February, while Paxton slightly regresses from 48% in October, but still holds a commanding plurality.

George P. Bush also looks especially strong among Hispanic Republicans, who he got 32% of the vote among (as compared to 23% of Hispanic Republicans in October).

Bush also nearly ties Paxton among Moderate Republicans (36% Paxton - 34% Bush), but is crushed among Conservative Republicans (49% Paxton - 19% Bush).


"If the 2022 Republican primary election for governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"

Greg Abbott - 60%
Allen West - 15%
Don Huffines - 14%
Rick Perry - 5%
Chad Prather - 3%
Kandy Kaye Horn - 1%
Paxton + 45%

1,200 Registered Voters living throughout the state of Texas were surveyed between January 28 and February 07, 2021.
The margin of error is ±2.83 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Abbott of course retains a decisive majority.

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Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

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238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

[_.]

Holy Harris County!

At the same time in the 2020 cycle of early voting, Harris County Republicans initially started out with a significant lead as well, which Democrats eventually cut as early voting progressed. In fact, the Harris County vote share compared to the same day of voting two years ago is extremely similar:

February 17, 2020: 10,541 Democrats; 11,678 Republicans - (52.56% R, 47.44% D)
February 15, 2022: 11,540 Democrats; 12,834 Republicans - (52.65% R, 47.35% D)

An extreme similar pattern is playing out in neighboring Fort Bend County:

February 17, 2020: 1,160 Democrats; 1,216 Republicans - (51.18% R, 48.82% D)
February 15, 2022: 2,917 Democrats; 3,233 Republicans - (52.57% R, 47.43% D)

Statewide, Republicans are doing much better this cycle, particularly in Tarrant and Collin Counties. In fact, the Democrats had the lead statewide at this time two years ago, but with a consistently much smaller turnout back then. Voting in-person was not available for early voting for the first few days of the 2020 primaries.

Harris and Fort Bend Counties break the statewide trend quite spectacularly.

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

Bosque County - Population 18,235 (164 voters in the Republican primary, 20 voters in the Democratic primary, it's a slip of the hand, the map has been corrected)

Cottle County - Population 1,380 (19 voters in the Democratic primary, 12 voters in the Republican primary, this actually seems like a statistical anomaly, but over the next few days, more Republicans will start to vote no doubt)

[_.]

Holy Harris County!

At the same time in the 2020 cycle of early voting, Harris County Republicans initially started out with a significant lead as well, which Democrats eventually cut as early voting progressed. In fact, the Harris County vote share compared to the same day of voting two years ago is extremely similar:

February 17, 2020: 10,541 Democrats; 11,678 Republicans - (52.56% R, 47.44% D)
February 15, 2022: 11,540 Democrats; 12,834 Republicans - (52.65% R, 47.35% D)

An extreme similar pattern is playing out in neighboring Fort Bend County:

February 17, 2020: 1,160 Democrats; 1,216 Republicans - (51.18% R, 48.82% D)
February 15, 2022: 2,917 Democrats; 3,233 Republicans - (52.57% R, 47.43% D)

Statewide, Republicans are doing much better this cycle, particularly in Tarrant and Collin Counties. In fact, the Democrats had the lead statewide at this time two years ago, but with a consistently much smaller turnout back then. Voting in-person was not available for early voting for the first few days of the 2020 primaries.

Harris and Fort Bend Counties break the statewide trend quite spectacularly.

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

Bosque County - Population 18,235 (164 voters in the Republican primary, 20 voters in the Democratic primary, it's a slip of the hand, the map has been corrected)

Cottle County - Population 1,380 (19 voters in the Democratic primary, 12 voters in the Republican primary, this actually seems like a statistical anomaly, but over the next few days, more Republicans will start to vote no doubt)

Cottle County is ancestrally Democratic. In 2006, 324 voters voted in the D primary, just 2 in the GOP primary. In 2010, it was 356-0 (no GOP primary held in the county). Most voters vote in the GOP primary now, but there's probably some local race that's still decided in the Democratic primary that is causing a lot of voters to pick Democratic ballots.

That's actually pretty interesting to hear, especially in the middle of the great plains. Wonder how that came came be

Also it looks like it still holds on to a bit of that residual history, at least for a few more years.

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-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

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353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

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-FEB 16 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 17

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470,699 Texans have voted so far, 2.74% of registered Texan voters.

176,635 (37.53%) voted in the Democratic Primary
294,064 (62.47%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Galveston, Cottle

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-FEB 17 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 18

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609,768 Texans have voted so far, 3.55% of registered Texan voters.

225,022 (36.90%) voted in the Democratic Primary
384,746 (63.10%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Presidio

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-FEB 18 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 19

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693,718 Texans have voted so far, 4.04% of registered Texan voters.

261,969 (37.76%) voted in the Democratic Primary
431,749 (62.24%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

None

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-FEB 19 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 20

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751,813 Texans have voted so far, 4.38% of registered Texan voters.

290,804 (38.68%) voted in the Democratic Primary
461,009 (61.32%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Jefferson

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-FEB 20 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 22

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976,717 Texans have voted so far, 5.68% of registered Texan voters.

290,804 (38.18%) voted in the Democratic Primary
461,009 (61.82%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Jefferson
To Democrats: Presidio

[_.]

-FEB 22 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 24

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1,250,203 Texans have voted so far, 7.28% of registered Texan voters.

473,431 (37.87%) voted in the Democratic Primary
776,772 (62.13%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Uvalde, Loving

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-FEB 24 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 25 - FINAL NUMBERS

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1,645,742 Texans have voted so far, 9.58% of registered Texan voters.

627,095 (38.10%) voted in the Democratic Primary
1,018,647 (61.90%) voted in the Republican Primary

[_.]

Cuellar's gonna win and he's gonna win much bigger than he did in 2020.

Bexar doesn't have many more votes left to give, and the Rio Grande Valley's breaking hard against Cisneros. Webb County has plenty more Cuellar votes where his recent surge came from, not to mention Starr, which hasn't even started reporting.

As of 8:58 PM Central Time:

50.39% - 12,170 Votes - Cisneros
44.99% - 10,864 Votes - Cuellar

[_.]

Cuellar takes the lead!

As of 11:20 PM Central Time:

48.15% - 17,224 Votes - Cuellar
47.52% - 17,000 Votes - Cisneros


In San Antonio metro:

70.29% - 8,679 Votes - Cisneros
23.35% - 2,883 Votes - Cuellar

Outside San Antonio metro:

61.22% - 14,341 Votes - Cuellar
35.52% - 8,321 Votes - Cisneros


And this is all without any votes being counted in Starr County, the southernmost county in the district and a large county in its own right, the second-largest in South Texas behind Webb  (exc. the San Antonio region). Starr alone should net some 3K or 4K votes for Cuellar, and put him solidly ahead, by near double digits.

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Coming down to the wire in South Texas with all 285 precincts in TX-28 reporting

As of 9:50 AM Central Time:

49.98% - 26,016 Votes - Cuellar
45.38% - 23,620 Votes - Cisneros


In San Antonio metro:

72.11% - 12,284 Votes - Cisneros
21.58% - 3,667 Votes - Cuellar

Outside San Antonio metro:

63.83% - 22,349 Votes - Cuellar
32.37% - 11,336 Votes - Cisneros

[_.]

Party with the lead for gubernatorial primaries by county - FINAL NUMBERS

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2,995,580 Texans voted in these primaries, 17.43% of registered Texan voters.

1,057,637 (35.31%) voted in the Democratic Primary
1,937,943 (64.69%) voted in the Republican Primary


Primary voting swing from 2018 gubernatorial primaries to 2022 gubernatorial primaries

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Turnout went up by 1.41% in the Democratic primaries and 25.11% up in the Republican primaries, as the total number of voters increased from 2.59 Million to 3.00 Million. In the 2018 primaries, the Republican primaries took up 59.8% of voters, which went up to 64.7% in 2022.


Blue for Democrats
Red for Republicans