Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Beto's got something planned for Tomorrow and is calling up his 2018 network to prepare for remote action like phonebanking. The announcements tomorrow.

Also, hes on the cover of Vanity Fair April - Can't hurt.

[Oryxslayer]

Nate Silver on Beto:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105950889196638209

[Oryxslayer]

Beto O’rourke is the single most blatant example of a media-created candidate I have ever seen in my time following politics.

What the heck is his claim to fame?

In a matter of like a year he went from an unrecognized nobody in the house to a major national figure despite a failed senate bid.

Don't take this as a argument in favor of any particular candidate but...isn't Trump the biggest Media Candidate of our time? Its well documented that our president and his allies got tons of free media coverage in 2016, much more than anyone else. it was his campaign strategy. The media danced to his outrage tune because fear is more attractive to viewers.

[Oryxslayer]

I also am open for Beto, but best put my commitments right now as up in the air as there are a good 6/7 candidates I could support.

[Oryxslayer]

Stephanie Murphy also with the day 1 endorsement. If Beto locks up a bunch of the Suburban 2016/18 house class, he definitly has a credible claim to the mantle of 'future of the party.'

[Oryxslayer]

Beto/Yang dream ticket!

I'd be shocked if Beto, in the event he wins, doesn't pick Harris
or Karen Bass as his VP.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1107649962299613185

[Oryxslayer]

I referenced this in another thread...But so many people are sort of acting as if Beto isn't capable of Policy details- just because he doesn't have camplete policy manual ready 3 days after his launch... Beto graduated from the same Ivy League University that Obama did- And Obama also started his campaign with more platitudes/ and filled in details as the campaign progressed.  So I think by the end of the campaign, similar to Obama/ Beto will be seen as very competent when it comes to policy manusha.

This is an advantage that creatures of emotion like Beto, Obama, Macron, Trump, Di Maio, and a whole hoast of others across history, have over creatures of policy. To them, policy is a defensive weapon, used to deflect criticism from rivals, whereas creatures of policy need to use their platform as a offensive and defensive weapon. If the emotional candidate fails to navigate appropriately, they have nothing to stand on and loose all appeal. If they do route well, and it is rather easy to do, the emotional candidate can take a position popular with the voters late and convince you, through their emotion, that they always supported that position.

[Oryxslayer]

Beto will be doing EIGHT stops in South Carolina this weekend:

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1108417299734777857

He will be holding three rallies the day of his official launch. The first one in El Paso, then Houston, then a nighttime rally in Austin

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1108443051263971328

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1108445611840409600

I want to know how many energy drinks this guy goes through in a day.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1109160722192306178

This crowd at USC though!

Seems like an awfully white crowd.  Or is “Count The Minorities” reserved exclusively for the candidate who was arrested for his protests and work during the Civil Rights movement?

I can spot a few, but yes it is a majority white crowd. Now why do I think that this is not a problem while Bernie's appeals in 2016 were. Well, in 2016 it was two old white people running, and they both needed to make plays for the AA community. Bernie's 'token' incidents didn't help counter the message that he wasn't a candidate for the African American community, and was essentially ignoring them in a two-person national race.

Right now, there are several AA candidates, with the potential for more to join - plus one old white man with potential ties to the community who might hop in. They are the ones making plays for the AA line. Beto doesn't need the AA vote, his path is Youth+Suburbs+White Libs+SW Hispanics. In fact, if Beto survives to the final few, there will likely be a AA candidate up there with him who has control of that path. Sanders also enjoys this leeway right now - they don't need to make plays for every last voter because there are so many candidates.

However, because of the divided primary and the path domination, we will likely see a minority VP pick if either candidate wins. For Sanders, this is more up in the air of who gets the pick, but for Beto it will likely be Kamala, Karen Bass, Stacy Abrams or another AA female. That will always be his way of getting the AA's on board - not token incidents from 50 years ago.

[Oryxslayer]

I wish Beto had not joined the bandwagon of boycotting AIPAC.  It would have been better to attend and give a speech saying what he thinks (even if disagreeing on many issues).  Especially with the mantra of go everywhere, talk to everyone, not writing off anyone, etc.  (and it could help to lessen the untrue narrative that Beto is weak on policy details).

I also think it would be helpful for Beto to do more interviews (on set and off) with MSNBC & CNN.  After all this is where many primary voters get their news & it would help him control the narrative they are airing (since much of the narrative is unfairly portraying that Beto is weak on understanding policy etc). Especially Morning Shows, where there is a more conversational setting, where viewers would really get exposed to the candidates personality in addition to policies  Such a setting is why, like it or not, going on Morning Joe (especially in person) can have a lot of influence among primary voters.

CBS/NBC/ABC morning shows can also be important in this regard.

I definitely get the feeling (as a Jew mind you) that if Gantz forms a government next month then close to the entire Dem field would be rushing to support AIPAC, J street, and other organizations. Hell, Gantz forming a government would allow us to sniff out who exactly is truly antisemitic, since only the antisemitie would continues to oppose Israel despite Bibi leaving and policy towards the Arabs and the peace process changing.

[Oryxslayer]

I wish Beto had not joined the bandwagon of boycotting AIPAC.  It would have been better to attend and give a speech saying what he thinks (even if disagreeing on many issues).  Especially with the mantra of go everywhere, talk to everyone, not writing off anyone, etc.  (and it could help to lessen the untrue narrative that Beto is weak on policy details).

I also think it would be helpful for Beto to do more interviews (on set and off) with MSNBC & CNN.  After all this is where many primary voters get their news & it would help him control the narrative they are airing (since much of the narrative is unfairly portraying that Beto is weak on understanding policy etc). Especially Morning Shows, where there is a more conversational setting, where viewers would really get exposed to the candidates personality in addition to policies  Such a setting is why, like it or not, going on Morning Joe (especially in person) can have a lot of influence among primary voters.

CBS/NBC/ABC morning shows can also be important in this regard.

I definitely get the feeling (as a Jew mind you) that if Gantz forms a government next month then close to the entire Dem field would be rushing to support AIPAC, J street, and other organizations. Hell, Gantz forming a government would allow us to sniff out who exactly is truly antisemitic, since only the antisemitie would continues to oppose Israel despite Bibi leaving and policy towards the Arabs and the peace process changing.

So anyone who doesn’t support Israel is an antisemite? Even as a relatively pro-Israeli dem, my God, get a grip.

I think you misunderstood my post - or perhaps I was too forceful. There is legitimate criticism one can level at Israel. However, the majority of Antisemites (and this is a extreme group) on the left right now are hiding behind this thin line of legitimate criticism. When they get called out, they say that its Israeli policies that they are criticizing, or a variety of other things that flow from the Office currently occupied by one Bibi. Who like I said, is not beyond criticism - I don't like the guy and I think he is damaging our relationship by trying to tie Israel to the Republicans. But if Bibi is gone, this excuse vanishes. In fact most mainstream dem 'worries' about Israel right now flow from Bibi, and it makes sense that said mainstream dems would be happy with other who are more or less more mainstream liberals - Gantz, Lapid and B&W. GAProgressive gets it, its BIBI that most of the dem politicians have problems with, not Israel.

Now this is a Beto thread, so If you want to continue this discussion, lets take it somewhere else.

Hmm, its odd. We are on week 2 of Beto's announcement(week 3 by Thursday), and Beto still hasnt had a polling bounce. Im starting to think his strategy of announcing later than most of the competition may have diminished his possible gains.

He's jumped from like 5-6% to third or fourth place nationally IIRC

I also think Beto suffers from the same thing Harris has going one right now. They have a solid base, but the name recognition wall still stands firm. Biden and Sanders right now still have their shine, but once the media is solely about the dem field and their politiking, the white knights will come down to play with the rest. Harris, Beto, and to a lesser extent Buttegieg and Klobuchar are playing for those voters right now enamored by Bern&Bid, so we might not see large shifts until that late summer at the earliest.

Another thing is that a lot of the people (from all ages, genders, ethnicities) I have talked with have Beto as their number TWO. If this anecdote is occurring elsewhere, Beto might uniquely benefit from candidates dropping out. Its another thing he might share with Lincoln.