UK local by-elections 2013

[You kip if you want to...]

As far as local elections can be, Leasowe seems to have been quite bitter. Very marginal.

[You kip if you want to...]

Leasowe? Yowza.

The Wallasey Tories are very well organised compared to Labour in the constituency, from what I can tell. I live in the bordering ward on the other side of the M53. I know plenty of solid Labour voters who'd never dream of voting Tory at a general who vote for the local Tories (Labour won 52-30 here at the 2010 locals, basically mirrored the Wallasey GE result). Their councillors always seem a lot more visible (but that's just my observation), although Angela Eagle seems to be popular so I imagine she's built up quite the personal vote over the years. The Tory candidate here was an ex-councillor as well.

Still, the ward doesn't really fit what I'd imagine to be easy territory for the Tories all that much. The Labour candidate was a local celebrity as well. I didn't realise until last night, my parents know her. Goes to show how well organised Wallasey Labour is really, I'm a member who lives two minutes away in the bordering constituency and I didn't know who was standing for us...

Heswall, on the other hand, needs no explanation if anyone knows anything about the West Wirral coast. Definitely the kind've place where UKIP will be seeing surges in support.

[You kip if you want to...]

Out of interest, what were the votes for the LDs and Greens in Leaslowe?

28 each.

[You kip if you want to...]

Another by-election round my way next week in Pensby & Thingwall on Wirral MBC. A 3-way marginal (1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Lib member) in Wirral West. I don't know that much about the ward really though, not as much as Leasowe anyway.

Labour seems a lot more vocal after its scare last month and I can only assume that the Wirral West CLP is more organised than their counterparts in Wallasey (and one should hope so in a seat like this).

The Libs won it in 2010, the Cons 2011, Labour 2012. If Labour want any hope of gaining Wirral West in 2015, Pensby's one of the two wards they'll need to win. The other ward is Upton which is very safe for them and the rest of the seat is the affluent coast where the trick for Labour is to just not lose by 20-30% landslides in all of them.

The Liberals over performed their GE result here as Wirral's Labour minority council was extremely unpopular at the time, but they lost confidence after a massive social services scandal and a Tory/LibDem coalition took over. The split in the local result for Wirral West in 2010 was 40-27-27.

Worth noting, to give the Tories a glimmer of hope here for 2015, Labour failed to win across the seat in 2011 and even last year when they won back the majority that they lost in 2002. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Wirral, Pensby and Thingwall

Lab 38.5 (+5.7)
Con 23.7 (-4.7)
Lib Dem 22.7 (-2.5)
UKIP 11.6 (+2.4)
Green 2.0 (-2.4)
Eng Dem 1.4 (+1.4)

Brilliant!

[You kip if you want to...]

May 2nd will be a lovely night.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

January is when it entered serious public debate though. There is nothing else new that would explain it. Note that UKIP hadn't won a single by election since the election and now they have won three in as many weeks.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.

I think that of all the policies of this government, legalizing gay marriage finished any chances of the Tory's being in power after 2015.  I don't want the government returned but I think that is quite sad. I really hate the British public at times



[/quote]

The only way I see gay marriage in anyway affecting 2015 is that it just toxifies the Tory brand further in that more than half the of this apparently modern Conservative Party opposed it. Same old Tories.

And the other side of the coin being the bigots opposed to it will end up giving UKIP a second look.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

January is when it entered serious public debate though. There is nothing else new that would explain it. Note that UKIP hadn't won a single by election since the election and now they have won three in as many weeks.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.

I think that of all the policies of this government, legalizing gay marriage finished any chances of the Tory's being in power after 2015.  I don't want the government returned but I think that is quite sad. I really hate the British public at times

The only way I see gay marriage in anyway affecting 2015 is that it just toxifies the Tory brand further in that more than half the of this apparently modern Conservative Party opposed it. Same old Tories.

And the other side of the coin being the bigots opposed to it will end up giving UKIP a second look.

That would be ironic. The Tories actually do something good and it costs them the next election.

Of course I get the feeling that UKIP won't actually get anywhere even if the voters flirt with them.
[/quote]

Vote Nigel, Get Ed will work wonders for the Tory campaign, I'm sure.

And in terms of shoring this support up, if you think about their billboards of Gordon Brown last time round, it sends shivers down my spine thinking of what they can do with the two Eds when it comes to snarky advertising.

[You kip if you want to...]

North East Lincolnshire, Humberston and New Waltham

UKIP 42.0 (+7.6)
Con 28.2 (-15.3)
Lab 18.0 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)

LOL.

[You kip if you want to...]

That UKIP gain comes in Cleethorpes constituency, a Tory seat where UKIP already had one of their best results in 2010. UKIP will hand it to Labour in 2015.

[You kip if you want to...]

What is it with Wales and local independents?

[You kip if you want to...]

Next week there's one in a ward next to where I live; I might try to do a proper preview for that.

That and the other 1000-odd wards up next week.

[You kip if you want to...]

The science guy in me is badly hurt and revolted by that barchart.

https://www.google.com/search?q=libdem+bar+charts&client=firefox-a&hs=5vr&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=fflb&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=xGJ9UebID8bWOeG1gSg&ved=0CAoQ_AUoAQ&biw=1366&bih=677

Prepare to be horrified.

[You kip if you want to...]

Weymouth and Portland, Melcombe Regis

Lab 26.5 (+6.9)
Con 24.5 (-9.0)
Ind 19.4
Lib Dem 16.1 (-13.0)
Green 13.6 (-5.3)

lol 5-way marginal under FPTP.

Labour coming from 4th is pretty impressive.

[You kip if you want to...]

UKIP gain from Labour in Rotherham. Part of John Healey's Wentworth constituency...

Although, if you're reading this thread, I'm sure none of need us reminding of some of the funny business from Rotherham council...

[You kip if you want to...]

Aren't the Brighton Greens going through a really rough patch at the moment?

[You kip if you want to...]

Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

Win or lose, 2015 will be a victory for all those who've wanted to see the back of the Liberals (even pre-2010).

[You kip if you want to...]

Wirral, Upton

Lab 65.4 (+5.
Con 25.5 (+2.9)
Green 4.8 (-0.1)
Lib Dem 4.3 (+0.4)

Can see this ward from my house.

Good news for Labour in Wirral West anyway.